Expenditure elasticities of the demand for leisure services

Although some research has already focused on the analysis of expenditure elasticities of leisure demand, some shortcomings with regard to the content and the underlying theoretical model as well as the applied methods exist. This article aims at avoiding these problems to provide consistent derivatives of leisure service expenditure elasticities. Therefore, a regular demand system is derived from microeconomic duality theory. To implement leisure specific demand factors (i.e. demand- and supply-based sports and recreational opportunities as well as sports and recreational preferences) while still being consistent with neoclassical demand theory, the basic model is extended by applying the demographic translation framework. Data of the continuous household budget survey (n?=?7724) from Germany is used for the estimation of the derived demand system. It is shown how sensitive the results are depending on the applied (censored) regression model: 16 out of 18 analysed services are indicated as luxury goods based on the findings of the Tobit model type I but as necessities based on the findings of the Tobit model type II. Possible implications are presented and discussed.     

Tobit or OLS? An empirical evaluation under different diary window lengths

Researchers analysing time-use data often estimate limited dependent variable models because time spent must be nonnegative and cannot be more than the total amount of time in a given observation period. While the traditional empirical technique applied to such cases is maximum likelihood estimation of a Tobit (censored regression) model, recent debate has questioned whether linear models estimated via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) are preferable. On the one hand, Tobit models are deemed necessary to address the significant censoring (i.e. large numbers of zeroes) typically found in time-use data, in the face of which OLS estimators would be biased and inconsistent. Yet, optimization occurs over a longer period than that covered by the typical time diary (often a day), and thus some argue that reported zeroes represent a measurement problem rather than true nonparticipation in the activity, in which case OLS would be preferred. We provide direct empirical evidence on this question using the Australian Time Use Surveys, which record time-use information for two consecutive diary days, by estimating censored and linear versions of a parental child care model for both 24-hour and 48-hour windows of observation in order to determine the empirical consequences of estimation technique and diary length.     

Inflation Effects on Finance-Growth Link: A Panel Smooth Threshold Approach

This paper proposes an original framework to examine whether the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, widely documented in the recent empirical literature, varies with the inflation rate. Using a Panel Smooth Threshold Regression for 71 developed and developing countries over the period 1960–2004, we find a non-linear link between financial development and economic growth: three equilibriums are identified with inflation rate. Then, there is an inflation threshold, for which finance ceases to increase economic growth. Our results suggest that for an inflation rate higher than 20%, economic growth is not, or is negatively, affected by financial development, whereas the impact of finance on growth is positive and significant for an inflation level below 10%.     

基于方差分解法的中国股市泡沫检验问题研究

基于理性投机泡沫理论,采用方差分解法对2005年5月到2012年9月上证综指是否存在泡沫以及泡沫的严重程度进行实证检验,并将检验结果同动态自回归法得到的结果进行比较。研究发现该方法能更有效地检测出我国股市中存在的严重投机性泡沫。     

Productivity and R&D sources: evidence for Catalan firms

This paper draws on a sample of innovative Catalan firms to identify how two main sources of innovation – internal R&D and external R&D acquisition – affect productivity in the manufacturing and service industries. The sample comprises 1612 innovative firms from the fourth European Community Innovation Survey (CIS-4) during the period 2002–2004. We compare empirical results when applying the usual OLS and quantile regression techniques controlling with a non-parametric sample selection. Our results indicate the different patterns that are attributable to the two sources of innovation as we move up from lower to higher conditional quantiles. First, the marginal effect of internal R&D on productivity decreased as we moved up to higher productivity levels. Second, the marginal effect of external R&D acquisition increased as we moved up to higher productivity levels. Finally, empirical results show significant complementarities between internal and external R&D, which are higher for knowledge-intensive service sectors.     

Economic importance and statistical significance: Guidelines for communicating empirical research

Abstract

A critical objective for many empirical studies is a thorough evaluation of both substantive importance and statistical significance. Feminist economists have critiqued neoclassical economics studies for an excessive focus on statistical machinery at the expense of substantive issues. Drawing from the ongoing debate about the rhetoric of economic inquiry and significance tests, this paper examines approaches for presenting empirical results effectively to ensure that the analysis is accurate, meaningful, and relevant for the conceptual and empirical context. To that end, it demonstrates several measurement issues that affect the interpretation of economic significance and are commonly overlooked in empirical studies. This paper provides guidelines for clearly communicating two distinct aspects of “significance” in empirical research, using prose, tables, and charts based on OLS, logit, and probit regression results. These guidelines are illustrated with samples of ineffective writing annotated to show weaknesses, followed by concrete examples and explanations of improved presentation.     

季报对股票价格的影响

事件研究方法是一种定量研究方法,用事件研究方法就季报对股票价格是否存在影响进行实证分析表明,改进的事件研究方法更加具有可操作性和适用性。     

城市公交行业顾客满意度测评及其提升对策——以合肥市为例

城市公交作为城市经济运转的动脉,已经成为国内城市发展规划中的重中之重。然而,目前在城市公交行业占主体地位的国有公交企业却亟待提高营运效益,增强企业活力,以摆脱经营上的困境。立足于安徽省省会城市合肥市的公交行业,通过实证研究与规范研究相结合的方式,针对城市公交行业的顾客满意度测评及其提升对策问题进行了较为深入的探讨。     

威廉姆森假说:空间集聚与区域经济增长——基于中国省域数据门槛回归的实证研究

威廉姆森假说认为,空间集聚在经济发展初期能显著促进效率提升,但达到某一门槛值后,空间集聚对经济增长的影响变小,甚至不利于经济增长,拥挤外部性更倾向于分散的地理空间结构。本文基于巴罗(Barro)增长模型建立了门槛回归模型,利用中国30个省域1978—2008年的数据对威廉姆森假说进行了实证检验,考察了空间集聚与中国区域经济增长之间的关系。研究结果表明,空间集聚对经济增长具有非线性效应,即没有达到门槛值以前,集聚对经济增长具有正效应,但超出门槛值后,集聚会降低经济增长率,即威廉姆森假说在中国显著存在。研究同时还表明,中国经济发展呈现出趋同和发散并存的态势。最后,本文据此提出了相应的政策建议。     

中国技术进步对能源效率影响的空间计量分析

利用探索性空间数据方法,运用空间滞后模型和空间误差模型对全域能源效率的影响因素进行估计,运用地理加权回归模型对局域能源效率的影响因素进行估计。结果表明:中国省域能源效率存在显著的空间相关性,全域层面的人力资本投入和外资技术溢出是促进能源效率提高的主要因素;从局域层面看,东北经济区的人力资本投入和产业结构调整对能源效率提高的贡献较大,而广东等南部地区省份的外商投资带来的技术溢出对能源效率提高的贡献最大。