Downward wage rigidity and business cycle asymmetries

The growth rates of wages, unemployment and output of a number of OECD countries have a strongly skewed distribution. In this paper we analyze to what extent downward wage rigidities can explain these empirical business cycle asymmetries. To this aim, we introduce asymmetric wage adjustment costs in a New-Keynesian DSGE model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. Increasing wages is less costly than cutting them. It follows that wages increase relatively fast and thus limit vacancy posting and employment creation, but they decline more slowly, leading to a strong reduction in vacancies and employment. The presence of downward wage rigidities strongly improves the fit of the model to the observed skewness of labor market variables and the relative length of expansions and contractions in the output and the employment cycles. The asymmetry also explains the differing transmission of positive and negative monetary policy shocks from wages to inflation.     

我国农业结构调整中的政府失效分析

由于农业基础薄弱以及市场失灵，我国的农业结构调整离不开政府行为，在目前我国的农业体制下，农业结构调整的成败也直接受到政府行为的影响。由于二元经济结构的制约以及现行农业政策安排的偏颇，政府失效严重地影响着当前的农业结构调整。如何有效的防范政府失效，成为当前农业结构调整的一个重大课题。     

A note on estimating the divisional cost of capital for diversified companies: an empirical evaluation of heuristic-based approaches

This note provides an empirical analysis of the potential for heuristic-based approaches to derive a divisional cost of equity from a firm's total cost of capital. Since an empirical relationship between fundamental information and systematic risk has previously been shown in other studies, idiosyncratic information on risk and performance ought to serve as a good proxy to calculate divisional adjustments. Two practically used, heuristic-based approaches are tested and a significant relationship is found between one of the measures and CAPM beta. This method may offer a plausible and comparatively uncomplicated method for adjusting a firm's total cost of capital for divisional use.     

East meets West: the case of Polish expatriates in the UK

This paper attempts to redress the balance in research on expatriation by exploring the experiences of an under-researched group of expatriates in an under-researched destination. Although there has been an increase in research on the adjustment of expatriates, the focus of IHRM research has, to date, tended to view the expatriation process through a narrow lens, emphasising the role of managers from affluent ‘Western’ countries working in less affluent countries. The growing numbers of multinationals and therefore expatriates from other countries means that the research agenda must be broadened, in this case to the experience of Poles in the UK. By focusing on expatriates from a former socialist economy we highlight the differing motives and experience of adjustment that they face. We show how the economic and social benefits of this East–West transfer can be a powerful motivating factor and may override adjustment difficulties. Furthermore, the analysis of East to West European expatriate transfers, from less to more developed nations, contributes to and widens the range of parent and host countries studied within the realm of expatriate adjustment.     

Taxes and production: The case of Pakistan

This paper investigates the effectiveness of investment incentives and corporate income taxes in influencing production and investment decisions in the Pakistani wearing apparel and leather products industries. Three tax instruments are considered: the corporate income tax (CIT), the investment tax credit (ITC), and the capital cost allowance (CCA).The results show that since there are significant capital adjustment costs, it is important to distinguish between the short, intermediate, and long-run effects associated with the tax instruments. Production decisions are relatively more responsive to changes in the ITC rate compared to changes in either CCA or CIT rates in each run. However, only in the long run for the apparel industry are the ITC and CCA rates cost effective in stimulating investment. The CIT is never cost effective. Thus targeted instruments outperform the general CIT instrument. In addition, although the incentive to invest is enhanced, there is little effect on output. Therefore, tax incentives essentially make production techniques more capital intensive.     

The Gradual Response of Market Power to Mergers in the U.S. Steel Industry

Studies of the impact of horizontal mergers on market power typically impose an immediate adjustment of market power following a merger. This paper adopts an alternative procedure to estimate the effect of four mergers on market power in the U.S. steel industry. Namely, by estimating a switching regression model that incorporates profit-maximizing behavior, the results show that mergers generally increased market power in the steel industry. However, it did take some time for market power to fully adjust after each merger.     

保险业发展运行中亟待解决的若干问题

保险业在连续多年的快速增长后面临着一系列亟待解决和突破的重大问题,包括发展与转型、区域发展不均衡、如何学习与借鉴国际先进经验、风险防范与支持业务发展、一盘棋与差异化、外部环境配套等问题.保险业的快速发展要兼顾业务结构调整和产品转型.区域发展不均衡既是问题,也意味着中西部存在良好的发展机遇;学习与借鉴国际先进经验要结合中国实际,逐渐推进;风险防范与支持业务发展是辩证统一的关系,不是对立不可调和的;一盘棋思想与差异化政策应该有机结合使用,不可顾此失彼;税收优惠政策的突破与投资渠道的进一步放开是满足广大人民群众保险保障需求和促进保险业健康发展的重要外部环境条件.     

A myopic adjustment process leading to best-reply matching

We analyze a myopic strategy adjustment process in strategic-form games. It is shown that the steady states of the continuous time limit, which is constructed assuming frequent play and slow adjustment of strategies, are exactly the best-reply matching equilibria, as discussed by Droste, Kosfeld, and Voorneveld (2000. Mimeo, Tilburg University). In a best-reply matching equilibrium every player ‘matches’ the probability of playing a pure strategy to the probability that this pure strategy is a best reply to the pure-strategy profile played by his opponents. We derive stability results for the steady states of the continuous time limit in 2×2 bimatrix games and coordination games. Analyzing the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic adjustment process in discrete time shows convergence to minimal curb sets of the game. Moreover, absorbing states of the process correspond to best-reply matching equilibria of the game.     

Neglected dynamics in panel data models; consequences and detection in finite samples*

The bias of various estimators for static cross-section and panel data models is assessed in a simulation study, where the actual data generating process is a dynamic adjustment mechanism with random individual effects. It is concluded that the consequences of incorrectly estimating a static model can be rather serious. Therefore, it is important to have an accurate technique available for the detection of dynamics. Two exact similar tests for the presence of a lagged dependent variable in panel data models are developed; in some simulation experiments these tests outperform standard asymptotic test procedures. Empirical results on Engle curves for food illustrate the above issues.     

External adjustment

Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even, for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets—the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position—the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations. JEL no. F21, F32, F36, F41