Towards a measure of financial fragility

The paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilibrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors and how the response of the economy to shocks relates to our measure of financial fragility. Finally we use panel VAR techniques to investigate the relationships between the factors that characterise financial fragility in our model, i.e. banks’ probabilities of default and banks’ profits – to a proxy of welfare.      

Pursuing financial stability under an inflation-targeting regime

We evaluate two main views on pursuing financial stability within a flexible inflation-targeting regime. It appears that potential gains from an activist or precautionary approach to promoting financial stability are highly shock dependent. We find support for the conventional view that concern for financial stability generally warrants a longer target horizon for inflation. The preferred target horizon depends on the financial stability indicator and the shock. An extension of the target horizon favoring financial stability may contribute to relatively higher variation in inflation and output.      

货币政策透明度的理论基础与实践分析

近年来，各国中央银行为了提高货币政策的有效性，都在致力于增强货币政策透明度。而理性预期、信息不对称和货币政策动态不一致构成了货币政策透明度的理论基础。我国货币政策透明度近年来有所提高，但仍然存在一些问题，需要采取相关措施加以改善。     

Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model

Most central banks perceive a trade‐off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the gap between output and desired output. However, the standard new Keynesian framework implies no such trade‐off. In that framework, stabilizing inflation is equivalent to stabilizing the welfare‐relevant output gap. In this paper, we argue that this property of the new Keynesian framework, which we call the divine coincidence, is due to a special feature of the model: the absence of nontrivial real imperfections. We focus on one such real imperfection, namely, real wage rigidities. When the baseline new Keynesian model is extended to allow for real wage rigidities, the divine coincidence disappears, and central banks indeed face a trade‐off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the welfare‐relevant output gap. We show that not only does the extended model have more realistic normative implications, but it also has appealing positive properties. In particular, it provides a natural interpretation for the dynamic inflation–unemployment relation found in the data.     

电力视窗：宏观调控政策实施效果动态跟踪

由于电力生产、消费与国民经济发展情况具有同步性,所以电力经济数据对国民经济的宏观参数具有极高的参考作用。通过研究2003年以来第二产业与第三产业、重工业与轻工业以及黑色、有色和建材等行业的电力需求强度的变化,探讨宏观调控政策的实施效果。比较研究发现,2006年10月以前宏观调控政策实施效果较好,此后,由于国际市场价格的影响,黑色冶金、有色冶金等行业发展较快。     

Measuring the Extent of Structural Remedy in Section 7 Settlements: Was the US DOJ Successful in the 1990s?

This paper suggests an innovative measure of structural relief obtained in a typical Section 7 settlement. The fraction of competitive overlap subject to divestiture as a condition of the settlement is modeled as a function of merger-specific efficiencies, the proportion of the deal held “hostage” to antitrust review, the merger’s anticompetitive potential, and other factors. The model is applied to data on 86 recent Justice Department cases covering the period 1990–2003 and to the subsample of 1990s cases. All data are collected from publicly available documents only. The government is found to secure larger divestitures when the cost to the acquirer of delaying the settlement is high. The resulting estimates are used to predict several out-of-sample observations. I would like to thank the General Editor and two anonymous referees for many helpful suggestions on earlier drafts of this paper. The remaining errors are mine.     

消费者为什么选择循环行为——城市消费者循环行为影响因素的实证研究

本文通过问卷调查，对城市消费者循环行为（包括购买行为和使用行为）的影响因素进行实证检验。结果表明，城市消费者的循环行为主要取决于垃圾问题感知、垃圾循环知识、垃圾责任意识、个人消费观念和年龄五个变量。可见．用心理意识因素（垃圾问题感知、垃圾循环知识、垃圾责任意识、个人消费观念）和人口统计因素（年龄）可以有效地区分循环型消费者和非循环型消费者。这对相关公共政策．尤其是城市垃圾管制政策提供了一定的借鉴和启示。     

新企业所得税法过渡期政策的若干问题

《中华人民共和国企业所得税法》将于2008年1月1日实施。新企业所得税法在考虑内资企业对平衡税负公平竞争要求的同时,也兼顾了外资企业失去若干税收优惠影响的缓冲措施。本文对实施过渡政策中涉及的新老企业认定标准、过渡期税率的适用以及过渡期优惠的执行等问题进行了探讨。     

促进科技进步的税收政策研究

税收政策对科技进步具有重要影响。我国现行科技税收政策尚有不完善之处,需要根据国家产业政策、科技发展规划和税制改革方向进行适当调整。调整的思路是:扩大增值税抵扣范围;允许工业企业提取研究与开发基金;实行加速折旧或摊销办法;突破区域和内外资企业的限定,对高科技企业实行同一税收政策;对个人科技所得实施税收优惠;等等。     

我国税负区域性分布的归宿分析

税收政策在缩小地区贫富差距方面具有显著效果。针对现有区域性税收优惠政策,应当及时纠正向东部地区过度倾斜的累退性导向,以实现地区范畴上的公平对待,并避免在新一轮经济发展中出现各地争设各类开发区、园区的风潮。同时根据不同地区的经济结构差异,应积极推动各地,尤其是中西部地区实现产业优化和升级,以自动调整区域税负分布状况。此外,消费行为及其结构也会在微观层面对税负分布及归宿产生影响。对区域性因素的扰动进行计量分析,可以在因地制宜的基础上,促进区域税负分布格局的合理化。