The dynamic linkages between current account deficit and budget balance deficit in the South Asian region

The issue of twin imbalances is at the forefront of fiscal policy concerns in the South Asian region, fuelled by an ever-going budget deficit and current account deficit over the last five decades. A standard approach is to assume a model in which budget balance influences the current account. We relax this assumption by using a panel data vector autoregression model comprising five South Asian countries. The results show that both budget deficit and current account deficit are mutually causative, which contrasts the unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to current account deficit found in prior studies. Further, this bi-causality relationship is also demonstrated in the impulse response analyses. Budget balance in South Asian economies responds positively to a one standard deviation positive shock in the current account balance. Likewise, external balance increases to a one standard deviation positive shock in internal balance. Higher fiscal debt impedes economic growth, which in turn impacts negatively on the budget balance. Our findings lead us to reject 'fiscal policy only' recommendations to address the twin deficits.     

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND THE FISCAL REACTION FUNCTION FOR SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST AND FUTURE POLICY APPLICATIONS

How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating this question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (ordinary least squares, threshold autoregressive, state‐space modelling and vector error‐correction model). This paper finds that since 1946, the South African government has run sustainable fiscal policy by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, this paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.     

Do enlarged fiscal deficits cause inflation? The historical record

We survey the historical record for two centuries on the connection between expansionary fiscal policy and inflation. The relationship holds in wartime when fiscally stressed governments resorted to the inflation tax. In two peacetime episodes in the early twentieth century, bond‐financed fiscal deficits, unbacked by future taxes, may have contributed to inflation. Fiscal influence on monetary policy was important in the Great Inflation 1965–1983. Expansionary monetary and fiscal policy did not lead to inflation in the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08 but, by contrast, the fiscal and monetary response to the COVID‐19 pandemic may involve risks of fiscal dominance and future inflation.     

目标成本的管理在房地产开发企业的现状及改进策略

在我国高速发展的经济时代,企业在发展过程中已经不再局限于物资和人力资源的限制,如果企业在竞争时依旧选择粗放型管理和无序管理,就无法满足企业的可持续发展。通过合理的目标成本管理,能够使企业在运行中的一系列指标都能够得到有效的显示,通过这种方式使企业实现利润最大化的提升,完成最终的经营目标。     

“一二三”安全管理体系在安全监管中的应用

“建立综合安全监管制度体系,健全两个监管台账,搞好安全监管中的三项重要工作结合”是政府部门综合安全监管长效机制的重要内容。“综合监管制度体系”包括:安全生产责任制等八项制度机制;“两个监管台账”,即建立1个安全生产监管总台账和13个分类明细账;“三项工作结合”,一是加减结合,二是奖惩结合,三是执法与服务结合。     

The effect of remittances on the current account in developing and emerging economies

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of remittances on the current account in developing and emerging economies, incorporating an assessment of the extent to which exchange rate regimes impact the relationship. The main findings suggest that there is a positive effect of remittances on the current account contemporaneously, but that the lagged effect is negative, which could be indicative of the existence of some underlying mechanisms characteristic of the Dutch disease phenomenon. In addition, the results show that a more flexible exchange regime dampens the contemporaneous positive effect that remittances have on the current account. The paper, therefore, asserts that policymakers face trade‐offs pertaining to the use of exchange rate policy in managing the effects of remittances on the current account, which should be given due consideration when such policy choices are made.     

账项调整会计处理的理解、应用及难点分析

账项调整作为对会计账簿记录有关账项进行必要调整的一种会计处理方法,在制造业企业和商品流通企业被经常应用,目的是为了正确地分期计算损益和考核各会计期间的经营成果。本文结合笔者多年从事会计教学和审计工作的实践,就在账项调整会计处理过程中正确理解账项调整以及如何应用做了详细阐述,并就账项调整在理解和应用过程中的难点进行了分析。     

Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies

Inflation expectations can be inferred from treasury yields data. Previous studies utilizing such data have found evidence for the role of inflation targeting in anchoring inflation expectations in a number of developed market economies. The goal of this paper is to extend the evidence for emerging market economies. We estimate inflation expectations from nominal treasury yields data and infer the anchoring of inflation expectations from the sensitivity of inflation expectations to current inflation rates. Our analysis shows that the effect of inflation targeting is statistically significant in emerging market economies as well as in developed market economies and that the magnitude is marginally greater in the former. Our results are robust to alternative specifications.     

Economic engagement and within emerging markets integration

We explore the co-movements between emerging markets by employing dynamic conditional correlation approach. We additionally explore the factors that might drive the conditional correlations between emerging markets. We show that trade with the high income countries is a more important driver of the co-movements between emerging markets relative to trade with other emerging markets either within or outside the geographic region of the given country. We further document that the overall health of an economy, investment and market depth explain the correlation between emerging markets. Evidence is also provided that although, the recent emerging markets and global financial crises raised the correlation between emerging markets, not all country pair correlations increased around the period of the crisis. The findings show that economic engagement as opposed to geographic proximity is more relevant in describing within emerging markets integration. The findings suggest that diversification gains could be achieved by strategically investing across some emerging markets even in crisis periods.     

Finance,power, and the British balance of payments

ABSTRACT

The Brexit referendum marks a critical juncture in Britain’s political economy. Benjamin Cohen argues that a nation’s monetary sovereignty lies in its balance of payments (BoP) flexibility (2008, 2015). I argue that a country’s position in the global financial régime must also be accounted for when explaining its BoP dynamics. This allows us to understand why, while sterling has long lost its ‘world currency’ status, Britain’s BoP exhibits some of the same features associated with American ‘exorbitant privilege’. To appreciate the UK’s own BoP flexibilities as well as to flesh out the Anglo-American axis in the international financial order, I compare the UK’s external balance sheets with those of the US. Given the complexities and uncertainties inherent in BoP analyses, I advise against micro-analyses of the BoP in favour of a broader approach that takes into account macro-dynamics as well as the International Political Economy (IPE) concerns outlined above. Elaborating such an analysis for the UK BoP, I explore the potential implications of Brexit for Britain’s external balance sheets and its political-economic future. While Britain’s financial power has helped insulate its balance sheets from external shocks, Britain’s impending departure from the European Union heralds a period of considerable uncertainty.