旅游业—城市化—经济—交通复合系统的耦合协同演化机制 ——以云南省为例

基于云南省16个州(市)的面板数据,运用ArcGIS空间分析、耦合协调度模型等研究方法,从时空视角对云南省旅游业-城市化-经济-交通四个系统的发展水平及其耦合协调发展状况进行了整体评价。结果显示:云南省旅游业、城市化、经济、交通发展水平整体分别提升了48.15%、47.59%、35.91%、46.89%。2005~2017年,云南省各州(市)旅游业-城市化-经济-交通复合系统的耦合协调度呈上升趋势,但87.50%的州(市)仍处于中度耦合失调水平,且空间分异特征显著,形成以昆明为核心的"核心-边缘"梯度递减的空间结构特征,整体呈滇中>滇东南>滇西南>滇西北>滇东北>滇西的空间分布格局。     

煤炭机械化采样系统质量管理方法分析

本文依据GB/T 19494-2004《煤炭机械化采样》的相关规定,结合煤炭机械化采样系统应用中的质量管理现状,提出煤炭机械采样系统质量管理要求,包括采样方案评定、采样设备检查及性能评定、采样操作检查和当前采样结果评定。通过实施上述质量管理,能够提升煤炭机械化采样系统的质量管理水平,保持采样系统始终能采取有代表性试样的能力。     

Attitudes,norms and difficulties underlying road sharing intentions as drivers and cyclists: Evidence from the Czech Republic

Cycling-inclusive urban planning is attracting attention worldwide because of the environmental, health, economic, and transport benefits inherent to cycling from the individual and the societal perspectives. The Czech Republic is one of the emerging cycling countries that are trying to promote and support cycling, but cycling mode shares are low because of the poor quality of the scarce infrastructure and the psychological barrier of the perceived lack of safety when cycling in mixed traffic. This study takes a multimodal approach based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and focuses on the factors underlying the willingness to share the road from the perspective of cyclists and drivers: positive attitudes toward cycling, positive attitudes toward cyclists’ behavior, social norms toward cycling and anxiety to share the road. A web-based questionnaire was tailor-designed and administered in the Czech Republic via social networks, web forums, and the Civinet network, and a hybrid bivariate-ordered model tested the behavioral framework. Results show that the willingness to share the road as a cyclist or as a driver relates positively to positive attitudes towards cycling and cyclists’ behavior, and negatively to the anxiety of sharing the road. Moreover, mediator effects are observed and a clear relation emerges between the experience on the road as both a cyclist and a driver on the willingness to share the road as a cyclist. Lastly, results show that the factors underlying road sharing intentions are related significantly to gender, travel habits, and perceived personal and infrastructure-related barriers to cycling.     

Psychological factors affecting memorable tourism experiences

This study tries to explore psychological components of memorable tourist experience (MTE) that are most likely to recall tourists’ memories. Urban residents from three representative cities in China were selected as research samples, and totally 301 usable questionnaires were used for data analysis. The results showed that the recollection of MTE was positively affected by novelty, involvement and social interaction. It was also suggested that hedonism and novelty had positive effects on the vividness of MTEs significantly. Additionally, in the context of Chinese culture, two new psychological factors, social interaction and perceived serendipity, resulted in different effects on the MTE.     

A review of Delphi forecasting research in tourism

The Delphi technique is the most popular judgemental forecasting method in tourism studies, but theoretical and empirical developments in this area (especially for forecasting purposes) have been slow. This paper analyses published research on Delphi forecasting in tourism and hospitality, explores how the Delphi forecasting method has progressed over the past four decades in terms of topical areas, empirical applications, and issues of reliability and validity, and is thus expected to advance understanding of the Delphi technique, providing topical and methodological recommendations for researchers and industry practitioners for producing accurate forecasts. The literature concerning the qualitative and quantitative applications of Delphi forecasting in tourism is mainly divided into three research themes: event forecasting, forecasting tourism demand, and forecasting future trends/market conditions (the most popular application). Issues of accuracy, reliability, and validity, as well as a group of Delphi-specific characteristics, such as panel size, panel selection, consensus measures, and analysis of results, are summarized and discussed. This study also examines the accuracy of Delphi forecasts as well as exploring the role of the Delphi approach in integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasts.     

中国工业行业能源强度影响因素的实证分析

利用中国31个工业行业1998—2004年面板数据,采用分层聚类方法,按年平均能源强度将31个工业行业分为高能源强度行业和低能源强度行业,并对全工业行业、高能源强度行业和低能源强度行业能源强度的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,能源价格上涨对提高工业行业的能源利用效率有显著的促进作用;FDI进入程度的增大提高了工业行业尤其是高能源强度行业的能源强度;进、出口商品结构变化对工业行业能源强度没有显著影响;工业内部的行业结构变化对全工业行业和低能源强度行业的能源强度有显著负的影响,对高能源强度行业没有显著影响;R&D投资强度的增加提高了工业行业特别是高能源强度行业的能源强度。     

开放条件下的财政与货币政策效果分析

引入国际经济部门之后,IS—LM模型扩展为IS—LM—BP模型,财政政策、货币政策的效果或被放大,或被抑制,完全不同于封闭经济情形下的分析。以IS—LM—BP模型为切入点,分别对固定和浮动汇率制度下的财政、货币政策效果进行了分析。     

饭店人才环境评价指标体系研究

饭店人才流动率高有多方面原因,其中一个重要原因是饭店企业的人才环境不尽如人意。本文对饭店人才发展的先决条件——人才环境进行了研究,根据ERG理论将饭店人才环境确定为基础环境、主导环境、驱动环境3项一级指标,利用德尔菲法确定了14项二级指标,并通过运用层次分析法,借助相关计算机统计软件,对测评指标的权重进行确定,构建了饭店人才环境评价指标体系。     

PI背景下的TDI结构方程模型

态度理论为地区形象(PI)和旅游目的地形象(TDI)的联合研究提供了一个平台。本文构建了一个理论上的地区形象背景下的旅游目的地形象结构方程模型。模型是一个具有因果关系的结构方程模型,包括8个潜变量和28个观测变量。以徐州为例,在运用SPSS15.0软件对数据进行信度检验的基础上,利用LISREL8.70软件对模型进行了验证性因子分析和路径分析。研究发现:(1)结构模型中各潜变量之间的路径与假定基本符合,模型的整体拟合性能良好;(2)旅游资源认知和旅游服务认知会对旅游意愿产生作用,这符合我们的传统理念;(3)地区特征和居民素质对旅游服务感知、目的地评价和旅游意愿三者均有效应,而地区竞争力和居民竞争力仅对旅游服务感知产生影响。     

A short-term cost-effectiveness study comparing robot-assisted laparoscopic and open retropubic radical prostatectomy

Abstract

Objective:

To evaluate cost effectiveness and cost utility comparing robot-assisted laparoscopic prostatectomy (RALP) versus retropubic radical prostatectomy (RRP).

Methods:

In a retrospective cohort study a total of 231 men between the age of 50 and 69 years and with clinically localised prostate cancer underwent radical prostatectomy (RP) at the Department of Urology, Aarhus University Hospital, Skejby from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2007, were included.

The RALP and RRP patients were matched 1:2 on the basis of age and the D’Amico Risk Classification of Prostate Cancer; 77 RALP and 154 RRP.

An economic evaluation was made to estimate direct costs of the first postoperative year and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per successful surgical treatment and per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). A successful RP was defined as: no residual cancer (PSA <0.2?ng/ml, preserved urinary continence and erectile function. A one-way sensitivity analysis was made to investigate the impact of changing one variable at a time.

Results:

The ICER per extra successful treatment was €64,343 using RALP. For indirect costs, the ICER per extra successful treatment was €13,514 using RALP. The difference in effectiveness between RALP and RRP procedures was 7% in favour of RALP. In the present study no QALY was gained 1 year after RALP, however this result is uncertain due to a high degree of missing data. The sensitivity analysis did not change the results noticeably.

Limitations:

The study was limited by the design resulting in a low percentage of information on the effect of medication for erectile dysfunction and only short-term quality of life was measured at 1 year postoperatively.

Conclusion:

RALP was more effective and more costly. A way to improve the cost effectiveness may be to perform RALP at fewer high volume urology centres and utilise the full potential of each robot.