Learning across the life cycle: Experimentation and performance among the hollywood studio heads

Guided by notions from the literature on organizational learning, this paper investigates how product line experimentation and organizational performance change across the careers of top managers. Its subjects are the studio heads who ran all the major Hollywood film studios from 1936 to 1965. The study found first, that product line experimentation declines over the course of executive tenures; second, that there is an inverse U‐shaped relationship between top executive tenure and an organization's financial performance; and third, that product line experimentation is more likely to benefit financial performance late in top executives' tenures. These findings are consistent with a three‐stage ‘executive life cycle’. During the early years of their tenures, top managers experiment intensively with their product lines to learn about their business; later on their accumulated knowledge allows them to reduce experimentation and increase performance; finally, in their last years, executives reduce experimentation still further, and performance declines. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Progressive stress accelerated life tests under finite mixture models

In this paper, progressive stress accelerated life tests are considered when the lifetime of a product under use condition follows a finite mixture of distributions. The experiment is performed when each of the components in the mixture follows a general class of distributions which includes, among others, the Weibull, compound Weibull, power function, Gompertz and compound Gompertz distributions. It is assumed that the scale parameter of each component satisfies the inverse power low, the progressive stress is directly proportional to time and the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress holds. Based on type-I censoring, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the parameters under consideration are obtained. A special attention is paid to a mixture of two Rayleigh components. Simulation results are carried out to study the precision of the MLEs and to obtain confidence intervals for the parameters involved.     

建设项目后评价工作程序设计

按照动态控制原理,从实操的角度出发,设计建设项目后评价工作程序框图。针对程序框图中“确定后评价目标及内容”、“制定后评价计划”、“收集实际数据”等后评价工作内容,进行重点讨论。     

Remaining life estimation of used components in consumer products: Life cycle data analysis by Weibull and artificial neural networks

Environmental awareness and legislative pressures have made manufacturers responsible for the take-back and end-of-life treatment of their products. To competitively exploit these products, one option is to incorporate used components in “new” or remanufactured products. However, this option is partly limited by a firm's ability to assess the reliability of used components. A comprehensive two-step approach is proposed. The first stage phase statistically analyzes the behavior of components for reuse. A well-known reliability assessment method, the Weibull analysis, is applied to the time-to-failure data to assess the mean life of components. In the second phase, the degradation and condition monitoring data are analyzed by developing an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The advantages of this approach over traditional approaches employing multiple regression analysis are highlighted with empirical data from a consumer product. Finally, the Weibull analysis and the ANN model are then integrated to assess the remaining useful life of components for reuse. This is a critical advance in sustainable management of supply chains since it allows for a better understanding of not only service requirements of product, but the remaining life in a product and hence its suitability for reuse or remanufacture. Future work should assess: (1) reduction in downtime of process equipment through the implementation of this technique as a means to better manage preventative maintenance; (2) reduce field failure of remanufactured product; (3) selling-service strategy through implementation of the proposed methodology.     

Bayesian life test planning for the Weibull distribution with given shape parameter

This paper describes Bayesian methods for life test planning with Type II censored data from a Weibull distribution, when the Weibull shape parameter is given. We use conjugate prior distributions and criteria based on estimating a quantile of interest of the lifetime distribution. One criterion is based on a precision factor for a credibility interval for a distribution quantile and the other is based on the length of the credibility interval. We provide simple closed form expressions for the relationship between the needed number of failures and the precision criteria. Examples are used to illustrate the results.Received: October 2002 / Revised: March 2004     

德日刑法中的遗弃犯罪及对我国刑法的启示——从一则案例谈起

我国刑法中的遗弃罪之本质在于对公民在家庭中受扶养权利的侵犯，行为人和被害人必须是同一家庭的成员。对于司法实践中发生的非家庭成员之间的严重遗弃行为因无明文规定而无法予以惩治，刑法法益保护之机能也就因此不能实现。有必要借鉴德日刑法相关立法，以完善我国刑法中关于遗弃罪的规定。     

桂林旅游地生命周期的界定

通过对历史资料的分析及对未来发展趋势的预测．指出桂林旅游自1973年对外开放以来经历了引入期、成长期和成熟期3个阶段，目前正处于旅游地生命周期的成熟阶段。     

基于产品生命周期的高新技术企业融资模式研究

针对高新技术企业在不同生命周期阶段的风险特征及传统融资模式的不足，应采取以高新技术项目为核心、以政府基金为基础、以风险投资为动力、以资本市场为源泉的四元融资模式。该模式不仅适应高新技术企业多产品生产的融资需要，而且可实现多种融资渠道之间的互动。     

晚清民初上海文人的经济生活与身份转型——以王韬、包天笑为例

近代上海城市的发展，把一批传统士人卷了进来，中国文人由此开始走出延续千百年的仕途经济，走向近代城市的分工体系和独立职业空间。作为晚清上海初始城市化的亲历者，王韬在文化心理和经济生活两方面，经历了一场由“士人”转向城市职业者的艰难蜕变。而生活于清末民初上海的包天笑，则以明确的职业归属感，取代了传统士人的仕宦情结，中国文人至此初步完成了由传统政教依附者向近代独立文化人的转型。     

论宏观调控——对我国2003年来宏观调控的几点认识

界定了宏观调控的内涵,论证了宏观调控的必要性,讨论了宏观调控的类型,对宏观调控成效与政策实施时长进行了模型分析,并对学术界就我国2003年开始的宏观调控成效的争论进行了简要的述评。