World Human Development: 1870–2007

How has wellbeing evolved over time and across regions? How does the West compare to the Rest? What explains their differences? These questions are addressed using a historical index of human development. A sustained improvement in world wellbeing has taken place since 1870. The absolute gap between OECD and the Rest widened over time, but an incomplete catching up—largely explained by education—occurred between 1913 and 1970. As the health transition was achieved in the Rest, the contribution of life expectancy to human development improvement declined and the Rest fell behind in terms of longevity. Meanwhile, in the OECD, as longevity increased, healthy years expanded. A large variance in human development is noticeable in the Rest since 1970, with East Asia, Latin America, and North Africa catching up to the OECD, and Central and Eastern Europe and Sub‐Saharan Africa falling behind.     

Applications of Statistics in the Field of General Insurance: An Overview

This is an expository paper on applications of statistics in the field of general insurance, also called non‐life insurance. Unlike life insurance where advanced statistical techniques have long been part of financial mathematics and actuarial applications, their use is only relatively recent in non‐life insurance. The business model of insurance companies, especially those active in non‐life insurance, has seen dramatic changes over the last 15 years. The aim of this paper is to convince the readers that especially today non‐life insurance is not only an exciting ground to apply existing modern statistical tools but also a fertile environment for new and challenging statistical developments. The activities of an insurance company can be viewed as an industrial process where data management and data analysis play a key role. That is why a fundamental understanding of data‐related issues (such as data quality, variability, analysis and correct interpretation) is so essential to the insurance business. These are exactly the tasks where professional statisticians excel. Also, a better understanding of the field of general insurance by statisticians will promote fruitful exchanges between actuaries and statisticians, thereby helping to bring actuarial and statistical professional societies closer to each other. Selected examples are used to cover the essential aspects of general insurance, and all of them are based on the author's experience. The paper concludes with some remarks on the role of statisticians working in general insurance.     

How resilient is La Réunion in terms of international tourism attractiveness: an assessment from unit root tests with structural breaks from 1981-2015

Even if local policymakers increasingly claim that tourism is one of the key factors of future economic development for the French small island La Réunion, international tourist arrivals are observed to be locked in a stagnation phase since the beginning of the 2000s. Starting from this stylized fact, this article aims to study if this phenomenon results from major external events hurting this economy regularly. Next, by using univariate unit root procedures with structural breaks, we test for evidence of permanent or transitory effects of external shocks on international tourist inflows (total, by source markets, and by category) over the period 1981–2015. Finally, the empirical analysis allows us to reject the null of a unit root. Then, stagnation of tourism arrivals to La Réunion is not due to exogenous shocks but probably results from endogenous impediments within the domestic tourism industry and unsuitable public policies.     

矿泉水瓶再生设计研究

由于500ml左右矿泉水瓶瓶口具有统一的螺纹规格,其次,瓶体的容量也具有接近统一的标准,这就为矿泉水瓶再生设计的开发提供了必要的前提。市场上关于矿泉水瓶的再生设计多利用矿泉水瓶作为盛水的容器,而没有继续探讨其盛放小型垃圾(瓜子壳,纸屑,铅笔屑等)的功能。本文以绿色设计中延长产品生命周期的理念为原则,以联想法、模仿法及组合法等产品设计方法为指导,推出一款全新的使用矿泉水瓶衍生功能的产品,并着重介绍在本设计进行的过程中得出的新的设计方法:系统化条件下的功能衍生法。通过这款设计来说明现有产品衍生出新的功能的可行性,并总结一定的设计经验与设计方法,为以后进行相关设计奠定理论和方法基础。     

浅谈BIM技术在建设项目全寿命周期管理中的应用

20世纪90年代至今,一直占据主导地位的2D计算机辅助建筑设计技术已然无法满足如今信息化社会的需要,应运而生的BIM技术不断发展壮大,逐渐成为建设项目设计以及项目管理的主力军,本文旨在研究BIM技术在项目全寿命周期管理中的应用及特点,望引起业内人士对其重视并进行深入学习和探讨。     

我国中小企业三维差异化特征比较研究

作为推动国民经济增长和促进社会稳定的基础力量,中小企业在市场中扮演着最活跃的经济主体。与大企业相比,中小企业有其鲜明的成长特征,从动态演进视角选取体量规模、生命周期、要素需求三个维度,系统探讨了中小企业的差异化特征。结论显示:体量规模特征反映在个体与群体以及经济板块之间;生命周期特征体现在死亡陷阱和空间格局演变上;要素需求特征会根据阶段创新内容的不同做出适时调整。     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of ramucirumab treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who progressed on sorafenib with α-fetoprotein concentrations of at least 400 ng/ml

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of ramucirumab versus placebo for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who progressed on sorafenib with α-fetoprotein concentrations (AFP) of at least 400?ng/ml in the United States.

Methods: A Markov model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of ramucirumab. Health outcomes were measured as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). With TreeAge software, the disease process was modeled as three health states: progression-free survival (PFS), progressive disease (PD), and death. Costs were extracted from the REACH-2 trial, and utility was derived from published literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated to compare ramucirumab with placebo. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were developed to examine the robustness of the results.

Results: In the base case analysis, ramucirumab therapy had a cost of $55,508.41 and generated 0.54 QALYs, while placebo therapy had a cost of $761.09 and generated 0.47 QALYs, leading to an additional $54,747.32 in costs and 0.07 QALYs. The ICER was $782,104.57 per QALY, which was much higher than the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY. According to sensitivity analyses, the utility of PD in the two groups was the dominant parameter influencing the ICER.

Conclusion: Although ramucirumab was associated with prolonged survival for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma who progressed on sorafenib treatment with an AFP of at least 400?ng/ml, it is not a cost-effective treatment from a United States payer perspective.     

Is there life after degeneration? The organizational life cycle of cooperatives under a ‘grow‐or‐die’ dichotomy

This article provides an in‐depth, longitudinal analysis combining real‐time and retrospective data on a set of Mondragon's industrial cooperatives that are organized as international groups. We examine the life cycle of these international cooperative groups, which is expected to evolve differently to that of small‐ and medium‐sized cooperatives that operate exclusively on a local scale. The article is theoretically informed by the cooperative life cycle theory, as well as by recent insights from the degeneration and regeneration theses. Our analysis yields an intricate picture of the evolution of cooperatives faced with a ‘grow‐or‐die’ dichotomy. On the one hand, our findings reject the highly simplistic and deterministic view of the degeneration thesis by demonstrating that these cooperatives can mobilize resources to revitalize cooperative values and practices. On the other, we find that regeneration may not occur in a consistent, sequential fashion as the previous literature suggests, but rather degenerative and regenerative tendencies can occur simultaneously, even leading to long‐lasting, unresolvable situations. In light of this, the article asks future research to draw on power‐aware and politically informed approaches for further understanding of how cooperatives manage the tensions at each organizational stage of their life cycle, and of which organizational actors benefit, and how, from reversing some degenerative tendencies while maintaining others intact.     

Technological adoption and use after mass market displacement: The case of the LP record

This paper investigates the reasons why some technologies, defying general expectations and the established models of technological change, may not disappear from the market after having been displaced from their once-dominant status. Our point of departure is that the established models of technological change are not suitable to explain this as they predominantly focus on technological dominance, giving attention to the technologies that display highest performance levels and gain greatest market share. And yet, technological landscapes are rife with technological designs that do not fulfil these conditions. Using the LP record as an empirical case, we propose that the central mechanism at play in the continuing market presence of once-dominant technologies is the recasting of their technological features from the functional-utilitarian to the aesthetic realm, with an additional element concerning communal interaction among users. The findings that emerge from our quantitative textual analysis of over 200,000 posts on a prominent online LP-related discussion forum (between 2002 and 2010) also suggest that the post-dominance technology adopters and users appear to share many key characteristics with the earliest adopters of new technologies, rather than with late-stage adopters which precede them.     

‘Not to bet the farm’: SANLAM and internationalisation, 1995–2010

The South African Life Assurance Company (SANLAM) entered global markets after 1990, with varied success. Contextual pressures exerted a ‘push’ on financial services companies, which led to strategic changes in firm strategy, structure and performance. Theories of internationalisation afford more attention to industrial production internationalisation. This article explores the SANLAM experiences with internationalisation since the early 1990s. Initial internationalisation attempts were less successful, leading to strategic business changes, which led to a change in the globalisation strategy and more success in alternative markets. This article explores the different stages of SANLAM’s internationalisation strategy and what determined eventual success. The article contextualises the SANLAM internationalisation strategy by drawing on aspects of the process theory, the Matthews Linkage, Leverage and Learning (LLL) framework, and the Strategy, Structure, Organisation and Performance (SSOP) analytical framework. The SANLAM case underlines the crucial role of tacit knowledge of the host market as prerequisite for successful globalisation strategies of financial services’ firms.