基于多元统计分析的封闭式基金业绩评价

本文引入在险价值(VaR)和基金折价率指标,利用因子分析和聚类分析方法对基金业绩进行综合评价。实证分析发现我国封闭式基金收益率优于市场收益率,少数几只基金业绩相对突出,实现低风险高收益的目标。但封闭式基金折价幅度较大,基金内部收益水平与外部评价状况背离,反映了市场投资者的投资非理性现象。     

微观经济杠杆值域的聚类分析——以我国能源类上市公司2003年数据为例

本文提出一个研究微观经济杠杆值域的新思路,按照“竞争性工商企业评价指标体系”中所确定的财务指标对2003年我国能源类19家上市公司进行聚类分析,把样本按财务指标值相近程度分为3类,然后对这3类公司的微观经济杠杆值域进行分析解释,得出2003年我国能源类上市公司按“竞争性工商企业评价指标体系”的财务指标分类后的微观经济杠杆值域。     

基于精细供应链战略的精细物流模式

从供应链角度出发，阐述了精细物流的内涵，构造了一种新的精细物流结构模式以实现精细供应链目标并总结了该模式的特征，最后又提出了精细物流的两种实施策略及关键步骤。     

A sequential model for cracking down on street markets for illicit drugs

This paper develops a sequential decision-making model for assisting law enforcement officials in allocating resources during a crackdown operation on illicit drug markets. The sequential crackdown model (SCM) considers a probabilistic framework, where the probability of incarceration of a dealer and the probability of dealing are modeled as a function of the size of a drug market, crackdown enforcement level, drug dealer's financial hardship, and other market characteristics.The model was developed and tested in consultation with enforcement officials from Philadelphia, PA and Camden, NJ. We present a detailed, step-by-step implementation scheme for updating parameters on each day of the crackdown. Parameter estimation along with examples of model usage is provided. Through these examples, we illustrate how the SCM could be helpful in understanding the response of illicit drug markets to various enforcement strategies. We further show conditions under which an alternating crackdown policy (referred to as a crackdown-backoff) or a consistent use of maximum possible enforcement would be optimal strategies for managing a drug crackdown operation. Within the context of the model and parameter estimates, we show that a much quicker and less costly collapse could be implemented if the available enforcement resources are increased. Finally, the model provides possible conditions under which a crackdown operation would be unsuccessful in eliminating a drug market.     

基于集对分析法的地区大中型工业企业自主创新能力评价

为了对地区大中型工业企业自主创新能力进行全面、科学的评价,基于集对分析法,提出了地区大中型工业企业自主创新能力评价指标体系及综合评价模型。通过对我国30个省市区大中型工业企业的实证分析,表明该方法科学简便,具有很好的实用价值。     

北京奥运物流技术需求分析

结合历届奥运会物流管理与运作特点及北京奥运会筹划及组织的要求,提出了奥运物流的内涵与分类、服务管理及运作模式。通过研究北京奥运会物流应达到的目标及现代物流技术在北京奥运物流中的作用,对北京奥运物流及相关技术的需求程度进行了有益的探索,并提出了完成奥运物流的基本对策。     

合肥市现代物流业发展的SWOT分析

运用SWOT分析方法综合分析了当前环境下合肥市发展现代物流业所具有的优势、劣势、机遇和挑战.     

Implications of variant efficiency measures for policy evaluations in UK higher education

Policy goals in UK higher education encourage the publicly funded universities to become more-specialised and larger in size without compromising output quality. Efficiency gains are expected to flow from this increased specialisation in accordance with universities’ comparative research and teaching strengths. Mergers to reap further gains from economies of scale are also being actively encouraged. Given this scenario, the paper investigates whether best-practice efficiency measurement based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) provides empirical support for the current policy goals. It also assesses whether such support is dependent on the specific type of efficiency measure used in the DEA modelling. This assessment finds that a selection of (nine) commonly used, variant efficiency measures generally support the current policy goals. The paper also uses the principal-agent framework to explore the issues involved in using computed DEA-based efficiency scores for policy evaluations and possible funding guidance in UK higher education. This highlights empirically how policy-makers and universities can have very different preferences about which efficiency measure is to be used for policy evaluations and possible funding guidance.     

How do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk drive Bitcoin volatility?

We investigate how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risks (GPR) impact Bitcoin volatility with respect to factors related to type and nationality of uncertainty, investigated period, relationship horizon and extreme conditions. Applying ARDL model and quantile regression for monthly data from August 2010 to September 2021, we reveal that June 2014 corresponds to a key date that marks a reversal in the investigated relationship. Furthermore, we show that the relationship between uncertainty and bitcoin volatility changes according to different factors. US uncertainty has short run effects on Bitcoin volatility, while China’s uncertainty has rather long run effects. Moreover, Bitcoin volatility responds in the same manner to US EPU and GPR, while, it responds differently to China's EPU and GPR. In extreme quantiles, we find that Bitcoin hedges against US EPU and GPR. Further, Bitcoin hedges against either individual or joint effects of US uncertainty, but not both.     

农机服务规模经营对粮食生产效率的影响机理研究

依据2009—2019年全国31个省（自治区、直辖市）的省级面板数据,运用随机前沿分析方法和Tobit模型,考量农机服务规模经营对粮食生产效率的影响及其作用机理。结果显示：2009—2019年,中国粮食生产效率总体递增,但区域间发展不平衡;农机服务规模经营通过技术引入效应和劳动力替代效应提高粮食生产效率,其中,技术引入效应的发挥受限于农业研发支出水平及其增速,劳动力替代效应在农业劳动力成本高的区域发挥的影响效用更佳。鉴于此,应加快农业科技创新,发展粮食生产全程机械化服务,完善农机社会化服务体系。