铁路客站建设项目全寿命三维集成管理研究

以铁路客站建设项目为研究对象,针对传统建设项目多个实施主体在管理系统上“组织分隔”、“信息堵塞”、“进程脱节”等引起的效率低下与浪费现象,站在全方位管理视角,以项目管理理论和管理集成理论为基础,依托霍尔提出的逻辑维、时间维、知识维三维体系,结合铁路客站建设项目和铁路行业自身特点,提出铁路建设客站项目管理集成系统的三维结构,并在此基础上,从铁路客站建设项目管理目标、管理进程、管理组织等三个方面进行分析,建立较为完整的铁路客站建设项目全寿命集成管理体系,并提出相关配套措施。     

综合客运交通枢纽分类分级研究

在分析现有研究的基础上,结合城市交通特性和综合客运交通枢纽发展方向,对综合客运交通枢纽定义、分类、分级和规模等问题进行探讨。梳理目前枢纽建设所面临的问题,结合未来城市建设重点以及城市部分功能的调整情况,理清枢纽建设与上述问题之间的内在联系,探讨枢纽的功能定位、分类、分级等问题,为今后综合客运交通枢纽规划建设提供技术支撑,实现不同区域综合客运交通枢纽的差别化布局和规划,促进综合客运交通枢纽系统、区域交通一体化以及社会经济的全面发展。     

The robust pricing–hedging duality for American options in discrete time financial markets

We investigate the pricing–hedging duality for American options in discrete time financial models where some assets are traded dynamically and others, for example, a family of European options, only statically. In the first part of the paper, we consider an abstract setting, which includes the classical case with a fixed reference probability measure as well as the robust framework with a nondominated family of probability measures. Our first insight is that, by considering an enlargement of the space, we can see American options as European options and recover the pricing–hedging duality, which may fail in the original formulation. This can be seen as a weak formulation of the original problem. Our second insight is that a duality gap arises from the lack of dynamic consistency, and hence that a different enlargement, which reintroduces dynamic consistency is sufficient to recover the pricing–hedging duality: It is enough to consider fictitious extensions of the market in which all the assets are traded dynamically. In the second part of the paper, we study two important examples of the robust framework: the setup of Bouchard and Nutz and the martingale optimal transport setup of Beiglböck, Henry‐Labordère, and Penkner, and show that our general results apply in both cases and enable us to obtain the pricing–hedging duality for American options.     

Testing the differentiated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air travel demand considering social inclusion

The economic downturn and the air travel crisis triggered by the recent coronavirus pandemic pose a substantial threat to the new consumer class of many emerging economies. In Brazil, considerable improvements in social inclusion have fostered the emergence of hundreds of thousands of first-time fliers over the past decades. We apply a two-step regression methodology in which the first step consists of identifying air transport markets characterized by greater social inclusion, using indicators of the local economies’ income distribution, credit availability, and access to the Internet. In the second step, we inspect the drivers of the plunge in air travel demand since the pandemic began, differentiating markets by their predicted social inclusion intensity. After controlling for potential endogeneity stemming from the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, our results suggest that short and low-density routes are among the most impacted airline markets and that business-oriented routes are more impacted than leisure ones. Finally, we estimate that a market with 1% higher social inclusion is associated with a 0.153%–0.166% more pronounced decline in demand during the pandemic. Therefore, markets that have benefited from greater social inclusion in the country may be the most vulnerable to the current crisis.     

Road and transport infrastructure development and community support for tourism: The role of perceived benefits,and community satisfaction

This study investigates the impact of road and transportation infrastructure on community support for tourism in the context of the China-Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC), a multi-billion-dollar mega project. Utilizing social exchange theory, the authors examined a positive relationship between perceived impact of road and transport infrastructure development and local community support for tourism through perceived environmental impact, perceived tourism benefits, and perceived community satisfaction. The data was collected through an online survey from 350 people living along the CPEC route in Pakistan. Results revealed that perceived impact of CPEC road and transport infrastructure is positively related to community support for tourism, and perceived tourism benefits and community satisfaction play a mediating role in this relationship. Findings of this study not only contribute to the tourism literature, but also provide significant implications for officials to develop policies for promoting tourism development.     

基于BSC战略地图的云南省公交优先发展战略路径研究

公交优先战略实施是应对气候变化和完成承诺减排任务的主要举措，也是推进新型城镇化发展和城市可持续发展的重要手段。从战略构架的角度，利用平衡计分卡工具，基于财务、社会公众、内部运营、学习与成长四个维度分析了云南省如何实施公交优先发展，通过绘制BSC战略地图给出云南省公交优先发展战略实施的路径和主要任务。     

普洱“茶马古道”生物与文化多样性保护格局构建研究

“茶马古道”沿线具有丰富的生物和文化多样性，集文化与生态保护价值于一体。然而快速的城市化破坏了“茶马古道”沿线的生态环境，加剧了文化的流失，威胁到遗产本体保护。基于系统保护规划的方法，运用Marxan模型进行迭代运算，以普洱“茶马古道”为例，通过对生物多样性和文化多样性不可替代性的叠加，识别出普洱“茶马古道”一级保护区和二级保护区，以此为基础构建普洱“茶马古道”生物文化多样性保护格局，包括15个面状保护节点区域，并构建从种植区到生产区和销售区的连接廊道与保护节点。为文化遗产廊道的保护及可持续发展提供了新的思路，也为其发展战略规划和政策制定提供了重要参考。     

Value‐at‐Risk bounds with two‐sided dependence information

Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) bounds for aggregated risks have been derived in the literature in settings where, besides the marginal distributions of the individual risk factors, one‐sided bounds for the joint distribution or the copula of the risks are available. In applications, it turns out that these improved standard bounds on VaR tend to be too wide to be relevant for practical applications, especially when the number of risk factors is large or when the dependence restriction is not strong enough. In this paper, we develop a method to compute VaR bounds when besides the marginal distributions of the risk factors, two‐sided dependence information in form of an upper and a lower bound on the copula of the risk factors is available. The method is based on a relaxation of the exact dual bounds that we derive by means of the Monge–Kantorovich transportation duality. In several applications, we illustrate that two‐sided dependence information typically leads to strongly improved bounds on the VaR of aggregations.     

Environmental impacts of commuting modes in Lisbon: A life-cycle assessment addressing particulate matter impacts on health

A life-cycle assessment of commuting alternatives is conducted that compares six transportation modes (car, bus, train, subway, motorcycle, and bicycle) for eight impact indicators. Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions and health impacts are incorporated in the assessment using intake fractions that differentiate between urban and nonurban emissions, combined with an effect factor. The potential benefits of different strategies for reducing environmental impacts are illustrated. The results demonstrate the need for comprehensive approaches that avoid problem-shifting among transportation-related strategies. Policies aiming to improve the environmental performance of urban transportation should target strategies that decrease local emissions, life-cycle impacts and health effects.     

User perception of transfers in multimodal urban trips: A qualitative study

The aim of this article is to identify the factors affecting user perception of transfers in order to reduce the penalty associated with transfers. Policy makers can thus concentrate on the most relevant factors to achieve a more effective investment of public funds. We carried out an extensive review of the literature and identified a total of 45 factors. A qualitative study was then conducted in two Spanish cities, Vitoria and Madrid, consisting of various focus groups stratified by age. The results indicate that a combination of factors influence the perception of transfers. Time spent during transfers, both walking and waiting, is the main penalty associated with transfers. However, the provision of real-time passenger information helps reduce the perceived waiting time. Differences were found between cities and age groups. Two new factors were identified, mainly in Madrid: mental effort and activity disruption. We, therefore, advise policy makers to concentrate their efforts on providing real-time information to passengers, improving the frequency and reliability of services, and designing transfer areas to ensure continuity between transport modes and between information and communication systems.