Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

采取网络型的政府市场供给模式应对房价问题

面对不断飙升的房价,从理论界到政策层面对其原因都有不同的解读,但从实践结果来看对房价的治理并不理想。本文在综合分析理论研究与国家调控政策的基础上,认为创新措施采取网络型的政府市场供给模式是解决房价过快上涨的有效途径。文章着重对这一模式进行了分析,并认为此举对缓解供需矛盾、解决市场的信息不对称、市场操控、改变预期、稳定房价等都有非常重要的作用。     

本币升值对股市的影响——基于日本的经验研究

作为一国经济晴雨表的股票市场,不可避免地受到汇率变动的影响。文章以日本为例,分析本币升值对股市的影响。分析表明,本币升值在短期内推动本国股市繁荣,往往伴生股市泡沫,但继续升值预期一旦消失,股市往往出现大幅度下跌。因此,在人民币持续升值的背景下,必须根据我国的实际情况慎重考虑其对股市的影响。     

物价稳定、货币流通速度与宏观调控愿景把握

对欧美国家和我国曾经发生的货币流通速度陡升型通胀和货币流通速度陡降型通缩进行实证分析表明,现阶段我国货币流通速度似处于一个非渐变、非常规的特殊时期,相关不确定性因素一旦演变为确定性的组合,很可能产生经济运行中的某种临界转换点,并可能对我国货币政策和宏观政策调控带来挑战。应加强对货币流通速度的监测和对货币需求变化的研究预测,进而优化市场预期管理和宏观应急管理,提高应对货币流通速度突变型通胀、通缩的能力,以更好地追求与维护物价稳定和提高宏观调控水平。     

推动人民币国际化的策略分析——由中韩货币互换说起

文章以金融危机为背景,以2008年12月12日中韩两国签订的货币互换协议对人民币国际化的推动作用为起点,分析推动人民币逐步走向国际化所应当采取的策略。作者认为,中韩货币互换是东亚金融合作的深化,只是在金融危机的背景下才格外引人注目,而且这次货币互换还引起了人们对人民币国际化问题的极大兴趣。作者分析了人民币国际化的有利条件,并借鉴国际上一国货币国际化的理论和模式总结,探讨性地提出了实现人民币国际化的对策建议,同时指出人民币要成为国际货币仍然只能是处于起步阶段。     

IT MAY BE OUR CURRENCY,BUT IT'S YOUR PROBLEM

The dollar's dominance of international transactions and role as a reserve currency is an exorbitant privilege that is a burden as well as a blessing for the US. It achieved this dominance early in the twentieth century, quite quickly in fact; it may also see that status change equally quickly were the world to move to a multipolar system of currencies. Among the most likely candidates for reserve currencies in such a world are the dollar, the euro, and the Chinese renminbi, Barry Eichengreen explained in his Butlin Lecture earlier in 2011.     

Renminbi＇s Potential to Become a Global Currency

This paper is a tentative endeavor to delineate the potential of the renminbi to become a global currency. It first analyzes the critical economic, financial and policy attributes that are required to support a currency to gain an international role. It then examines whether China has the potential to acquire these attributes. The paper concludes by offering some provisional observations on the implications for Asia and the global economy, should the renminbi evolve into a world currency in the coming decades.     

Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform： Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010

In the present paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, the currency basket, the floating band and the foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. We find the following stylized facts： the value of the RAIB became stable after the reform; the weight of the US dollar remained high in the basket, while other currencies remained statistically significant; and the floating band gradually increased to lO percent during 2005-2008, and then greatly narrowed from the late summer of 2008 under the assumption of a yearly resetting interval. We find that the foreign exchange market pressure increased from 2005 to 2008. A possible reason is that the weight of the US dollar in the basket was slightly lower than the share of the US dollar in total transactions on the Chinese foreign exchange market. Therefore, it is reasonable for China to adopt a dollar peg exchange rate regime.     

跨国企业的现金管理研究

文章根据国内外研究文献,分析和研究了现金库（Cash Pool）、货币风险库（Currency Risk Pool）、商业信用管理（Credit Risk Management）等跨国企业现金管理方式;针对现行公司治理机制下大企业内部的现金资本流向复杂、筹资多元、风险分散等特点,为实现大企业的风险共管与现金资本共享提供依据。