企业知识管理绩效综合评价案例研究

知识管理是现代企业管理的重要内容。正确分析和评价企业的知识管理绩效，对于促进企业知识管理、提高企业知识管理水平以及增强企业竞争优势，具有重要的现实意义。文章构建了企业知识管理绩效评价的指标体系，并运用模糊综合评价模型对企业知识管理绩效进行了综合评价。     

The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight

It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists.     

Application of multi-factor hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model in risk assessment of gas exploration

This article classified gas exploration risk on the basis of the characteristics of oil-gas exploration investment projects, which are internal systems risk and external non-systemic risk. It described each classification specifically and introduced the basic principles and mathematical model of the multi-factor hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment in detail, and then researched the conducts the risk of the gas exploration with examples.     

游客体验的模糊综合评价方法——基于宜昌市景区的问卷调查

关注游客主观体验和对景区的反馈评价,通过对宜昌市域14景区的问卷调查,获得第一手资料,并进行模糊综合评价分析.通过游客对各因子满意度和关注度的排序,揭示了旅游发展中服务环节薄弱、景区配套协调不足等问题.依据满意度与关注度将因子分类,分别提出改善策略并排列优先级,最后提出了突出景区资源禀赋优势、完善旅游支撑保障体系等建议.     

Sustaining Collusion Via a Fuzzy Trigger

Probability theory is the standard economic representation of uncertainty, although it is not always an accurate one. Fuzzy logic is an alternative representation that does not require individual beliefs regarding the explicit functional form of uncertainty. This paper applies fuzzy logic to an oligopoly trigger pricing game. The fuzzy trigger pricing game reverses the standard cyclical price war prediction; collusion-sustaining price wars are most likely to occur during times of high demand. The fuzzy model also predicts that markets with relatively volatile prices are more likely to undergo collusion-sustaining price wars. The predictions are consistent with available empirical evidence.     

基于模糊综合评价模型的旅游资源评价

在前人对旅游资源评价研究的基础上,构建旅游资源评价指标体系,并将旅游资源评价模糊因素数量化,综合模糊分析、因子分析和层次分析的基本思想,建立了多因素、分层次的模糊综合评价模型,分别求得旅游资源评价要素的量化值,从而建立科学的旅游资源评价方法,并在旅游资源价值评价领域加以运用。     

人员工作分配的定量优化方法研究

近年来资源优化问题受到各方面的普遍关注,作为生产要素中最具有活力的人才资源也存在资源优化分配的问题。文章以残奥会工作人员的工作岗位科学分配为例,采用模糊数学方法进行数据处理,运用运筹学方法进行优化,取得了良好的效果,达到了科学优化、节约成本的目的,为组织决策者提供了一种可供参考的方法。     

基于模糊联系度的危化品公路运输安全风险评估

为了有效降低危化品公路运输事故风险,提高危化品运输安全管控能力,构建了含23个动、静态指标的危化品公路运输安全风险评估指标体系,采用组合权重对评估指标赋权;基于集对分析理论,对专家打分分值与组合权重深入分析,引入综合差异度系数的概念,确定模糊联系度,提出一种危化品公路运输安全风险评估方法;以西安某公司至上海的运输任务为例,进行实例应用。结果表明：除危化品因素外,其余一级指标均存在风险上升趋势,其中人员因素风险上升趋势尤其明显,危化品公路运输整体风险状态处于微反势9级,风险较大,与实际情况相符。所提方法可实现危化品公路运输动、静态风险评估,为危化品公路运输风险研究提供参考。     

盐城市水资源承载状态预警研究

在分析水资源承载状态预警概念的基础上,引入"三类六级"预警思想,采用可变模糊法和层次分析法的思想,构建盐城市水资源承载状态综合预警指标体系,评价盐城市2015年、2020年和2030年的水资源承载状态,并结合各年份承载状态变化趋势,对未来年份进行预警。结果表明:盐城市2015年水资源处于临界超载的状态,但随着"关于做好建立全国水资源承载能力监测预警机制工作的通知"等一系列措施的实施,2020年、2030年承载状态将逐步好转,到2030年将处于可载的状态。     

The future of foresight professionals: Results from a global Delphi study

How will foresight practice evolve into the next decade and beyond? How might its supply and demand factors self-organize? In 2012 a real-time Delphi study, entitled, “The Certification of Professional Futurists 2030,” was conducted among 142 experts from 29 countries to debate the forces that might diminish or enhance futures work. The study consisted of 14 projections out to the year 2030, ranging from whether the global futures field might “employ a viable form of certification for professional futurists,” to whether it might “share a common accepted understanding of futures assumptions, theory, methods, knowledge, and ethics.” Panelists identified themselves with various futures associations. This article presents the findings, including where there is dissent and consensus in the futures field over the likelihood, impact and desirability of the professionalization of its practice. Further scale development using factor analysis, ordered by the theory of competitive advantage, produced a scenario model of three market forces: assimilation, academicisation, or certification. The third force of professional certification by 2030 was deemed least likely and less desirable. This wide ranging survey therefore offers the futures field a common conversation protocol to rethink how it might redesign its value chain and differentiate itself against other professions.