Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles

We introduce the results of a non-parametric estimate of the US wage-Phillips Curve into a simplified version of the model of the wage-price spiral by Flaschel and Krolzig (2008). Making use of Okun’s law, the non-linearity in the wage inflation-employment relation translates into a non-linearity in the so-called ‘distributive curve’ of the economy. Exploiting the observed non-linearity in extending an otherwise standard demand-distribution model (Taylor 2004 Taylor, Lance. 2004. Reconstructing macroeconomics. structuralist proposals and critique of the mainstream, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), we provide a dynamical analysis both in wage-led and profit-led effective demand regimes. In a profit-led scenario, shown to be the empirically relevant case for the US economy, there are two stable equilibria of Goodwin (1967 Goodwin, R.M. 1967. “A growth cycle”. In Socialism, capitalism and economic growth, Edited by: Feinstein, C.H. Cambridge, , UK: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]) growth cycle type, identified as a stable depression and a stable boom, and a saddle-path stable equilibrium in between them. Both stable steady states are surrounded by trajectories that cycle counterclockwise around their basins of attraction. The obtained type of growth fluctuations can be verified by a long phase cycle estimation for the US economy using a method developed by Kauermann, Teuber and Flaschel (2008 Kauermann, G., Teuber, T. and Flaschel, P. 2008. “Estimating loops and cycles using penalized splines”. Bielefeld: CEM working paper.  [Google Scholar]).     

Interest rates,distribution and capital accumulation – A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany

We analyse the effects of interest rate variations on the rates of capacity utilisation, capital accumulation and profit in a simple post-Kaleckian distribution and growth model. This model gives rise to different potential accumulation regimes depending on the values of the parameters in the investment, saving and distribution function. Estimating these core behavioural equations for the US and Germany in the period 1960–2007, we find significant and robust effects of interest payments with the expected sign in each of the equations. Our estimation results imply, both for the US and for Germany, that the effects of changes in the real long-term rate of interest on the equilibrium rates of capacity utilisation, capital accumulation and profits, are characterised by the ‘normal regime’: rising long-term real rates of interest cause falling rates of capacity utilisation, capital accumulation and profits, as well as redistribution at the expense of labour income and hence an increasing profit share in both countries.     

协调内外需关系的若干理论思考

内需反映一国的内生增长能力,外需反映一国利用国外市场和国外资源实现增长的能力,内外需关系可以用内外需比指标大致衡量。一般而言,内外需呈现相互替代、相互促进的关系。影响内外需关系的因素包括国内市场规模、经济发展阶段、贸易政策与制度等因素,而内外需关系又将影响到产业结构及产业关联、内外经济循环、贸易条件及国民福利等方面。在协调内外需关系方面,政府应扮演重要角色,确定合理的目标及方向。     

Estimating demand curve in the Korean VoIP telecommunications market

The VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) market in Korea is showing rapid growth since domestic carriers initiated the service in 2006. These carriers are now seeking new revenue sources from various convergence services and are increasing investment into VoIP. In particular, local exchange carriers (LECs), formerly reluctant to invest in technologies that would cannibalize their local telephone revenue, have started to invest in VoIP, in recognition of the current convergence of media and the telecommunications industry, as well as in the face of intensifying competition. In this study, we determined that VoIP call rates and landline telephony call rates were the most important factors affecting VoIP call demand, in addition to network externality. We also verified that landline telephony is no longer a supplement to VoIP, but rather, a substitute that has considerable influence on VoIP call demand. Empirical evidence is expected to be considered in policy decision making on current issues in the IT industry, such as access prices or competitiveness assessment. The current empirical analysis on the Korean VoIP industry and the adherence to lessons learned from policy enforcement should provide valuable information to countries seeking to develop their own VoIP industries, as well as to businesses developing new strategies based on the VoIP market.     

旅游集散中心对旅游潜在需求的激活机制研究——基于创新的视角

在简要介绍旅游集散中心及旅游潜在需求基础上,基于创新的视角,系统分析了旅游集散中心对旅游潜在需求的激活机制,指出旅游集散中心对潜在需求的影响与激活的机制是通过多种机制,借助于创新性旅游服务以及文化、理念、时尚等作用于潜在旅游消费需求的不同层面,从而激活旅游潜在需求。     

基于不对称需求信息的激励机制模型研究

针对由单制造商和单销售商组成的供应链,提出了供应链双方需求信息对称情况下的激励机制模型,并在此基础上建立了供应链双方在需求信息不对称情况下的运作策略模型。制造商通过折扣,运用激励相容机制使销售商诚实申报需求信息,使得供应链利润最大化的同时供应链成员实现双赢。数字试验结果表明:①所提策略是有效的;②该策略不仅能提高制造商利润,而且也能改善销售商的利润。     

我国商业健康保险的需求影响因素分析

本文利用实际数据,通过构造多元回归计量模型,对影响健康保险有效需求的原因进行了实证分析。结果显示,我国经济的快速增长正成为影响商业健康保险消费的重要因素,当前应深化医疗卫生体制改革,推进公私合作伙伴关系,提高保险公司自身业务水平,推动商业健康保险的长期健康发展。     

扩大居民消费需求的对策研究

中国作为世界制造业大国,却远不是消费大国,进入21世纪以来中国的消费率更是急剧下降。究其原因,主要受到居民收入不高、收入差距拉大、社会保障不健全、税收制度不完善以及消费金融不发达等因素的影响。如今,受人民币升值、金融危机的影响,中国的出口受到很大的局限,中国可以通过改进收入分配制度,完善社会保障体系,推进税收制度改革和发展消费金融的途径来拉动内需,扩大消费,从而促进经济发展。     

支持辽宁文化事业大发展的财政政策研究

文化建设是中国特色社会主义总体布局的重要组成部分,文化发展离不开财政的大力支持。财政政策的目标应与辽宁省国民经济以及文化发展的目标相一致。财政政策主要是拉动文化增长的政策,着力点应放在扩大内需上。为了促进辽宁文化事业的大发展、大繁荣,必须制定相应的财政支持政策,而且应做到多项并举。     

刺激还是抑制：企业负债对广告投入影响的理论与实证研究

以布莱德和莱维斯的理论为基础,假设广告具有拓展效应和窃取效应,研究企业负债与市场地位对企业广告投资的影响。结果显示：企业资本市场行为影响其产品市场竞争,负债具有竞争策略性;企业负债刺激其广告投入,而竞争对手负债抑制其广告投入;寡头垄断市场,企业初始市场份额抑制其广告投入;广告投入具有行业差异,且非制造业内部差异更大。研究结论拓展布莱德和莱维斯研究的同时,也给企业广告投资提供参考价值。