协整还是协变:来自中国进出口时间序列的经验证据(1950-2004)

结构突变是经典计量经济学所面临的难题之一,也是当前国际计量经济学界的一个前沿热点问题.本文采用带有内生结构突变的单位根检验,判定我国进出口时间序列服从具有两次结构变动的趋势平稳过程,而不是单位根过程.在此基础上进一步建立了同期协同结构突变向量自回归模型,即协变模型,得出了一些与常规的协整分析不同的结论,该模型具有更强的解释能力和更好的预测效果.     

加快推进嘉兴市建筑业“走出去”发展的对策

嘉兴市建筑业在开展＂走出去＂发展过程中已经取得了较好的成绩,但仍然存在着企业家缺乏开拓精神、企业竞争能力薄弱、科技创新能力不足、复合人才紧缺、自有资金缺乏、政府职能部门保障机制缺位等诸多问题。要想改变这种现状,必有加强舆论宣传、完善鼓励政策、提升企业创新能力、加快结构调整、培养引进人才、开展金融创新、完善行业保障机制等措施,加快推进嘉兴市建筑业＂走出去＂发展的步伐。     

论体育课堂教学有效实施的策略

体育课作为学校教育中一门必不可缺少的基本素质培养课程越来越受到人们的关注。自实施体育新课程以来,教育行政部门和学校都对其倾注了极大的热情。但在将新的体育教育理念和教学方法落实到体育课堂教学中,真正提高体育课堂教学效果方面,理想与实际还存在一定的差距。     

努力学习实践科学发展观，力争企业工作再十新台阶——桂林百货大楼股份有限公司深入学习实践科学发展观综述

文章阐述了桂林百货大楼股份有限公司通过深入学习实践科学发展观活动，为公司今后科学发展找到了明确方向，为各项工作的顺利完成并再上新台阶奠定了坚实的基础。     

INCENTIVES AND SOCIAL NORMS: A MOTIVATION‐BASED ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL NORMS

Abstract It is now commonplace to regard social norms as a subject of growing interest in the economic literature (e.g. game theoretical approaches based on ‘other‐regarding’ individual preferences, the analysis of the impact of rewards or punishment on individuals’ behaviour through experimental economics as well as field experiments, the revival of the institutionalist tradition spurred on by the influential work of Douglas North and followed by many others and the growing influence of neuroeconomics). In this paper, we focus on the relationship between incentives and social norms and survey the literature that could constitute the foundations of a motivation‐based economic analysis of social norms. Our main findings are that (1) the interaction between incentives and social norms is far from obvious since taking social norms into account involves the introduction of supplementary motives, in addition to self‐interest, into the economic analytical framework; (2) the analysis of the interaction between incentives and social norms resists an approach exclusively in terms of crowding‐in and ‐out effects because it is sensitive to whether it concerns behaviours driven by honour or by social stigma; (3) as a result, it is difficult to precisely evaluate the policy implication of the interactions between incentives and social norms.     

Saving–investment correlations, capital mobility and crowding out: some further results

This study attempts to reassess the evidence on the degree of capital mobility and crowding out by applying a varying coefficients model to data on 19 OECD countries over the 1971–1999 period. Our period-specific results strongly support the crowding-out effect as well as the low capital mobility argument for this group of countries as a whole. However, the strength of the crowding-out effect appears to weaken and the degree of capital mobility to increase in the 1990s as compared to the 1970s and 1980s. We also classify countries into five groups according to the relative size of the government sector. Our group-specific results indicate that the degree of capital mobility is generally lower and the crowding-out effect generally stronger, in country groups with smaller governments. The differences are especially evident when we compare the group with largest government size with all other groups, those differences between the latter being much more modest. However, significant differences in the country-specific results suggest that it is prudent to be cautious when we draw conclusions about crowding-out and capital mobility for specific countries from the period-wise or group-wise results. This is particularly important in drawing policy implications for specific countries.     

基于委托-代理的“走出去”或贸易选择分析

目前，我国企业进入国际市场主要采取两种途径：对外直接投资和进出口。除了政策引导外，企业选择“走出去”还是“进出口”需要进行经济分析。委托一代理理论可以给企业提供一个新的分析框架。从委托人的视角看，委托一代理成本一收益法可以衡量代理的效率。从代理方看，由于存在道德风险，声誉机制可以在一定程度上防止代理问题。在声誉机制下，如果子公司管理者选择任职，则企业可以进行对外直接投资；如果管理者选择离职或失业，则企业会通过贸易利用国际市场资源。     

接口是计划生产的关键

本文通过笔者经历的几个普通案例,阐明了生产计划在计划生产中的重要作用和生产计划编制的严肃性、系统性问题,而接口又是计划生产中最值得关注的事项。     

论虚拟企业组织

虚拟企业组织是相对于实体组织而言的，它意味着实体企业组织的某些职能的“虚拟化”。虚拟企业组织存在的物质技术基础是计算机网络技术，它属于经济活动的一种混合组织形式，本质上是包买商制度在计算机网络时代的变形。不可能存在“虚拟经济”，因为虚拟企业组织与实体企业组织是相互依存的。     

RESTRUCTURING THE NHS AGAIN: SUPPLY SIDE REFORM IN RECENT ENGLISH HEALTH CARE POLICY

Introducing market-like structures to public services is a key aspect of New Public Management. The restructuring of the NHS into an internal market of the 1990s is an example. Recent policies have further developed this notion. A new aspect of the restructuring is a focus on increasing the diversity of types of provider of healthcare organisations. The objectives of the restructuring policy entailing the increase in supply side diversity are examined, and the challenges raised by these changes are discussed. It is argued that the government is too optimistic about the benefits, and insufficiently concerned about possible undesirable consequences.