The structure of consumer confidence and real value added growth in retailing in the Netherlands

Consumer confidence is a determinant of the willingness to buy and thus of sales in retailing. The main purpose of this study is to investigate whether the structure of consumer confidence in the period 1987-2000 differs from the 1972-87 period. The main finding is that, in the 1972-87 period saving had a precaution motive and in the 1987-2000 period saving had a transaction motive. In the 1972-87 period, the utility and ability of saving were determined by the development of household wealth; and in the 1987-2000 period, the utility and ability of saving are determined by the level of household wealth. The perceived inflation is related more strongly to the perceived development of the general economic situation in the 1972-87 than in the 1987-2000 period. Empirical evidence is found that consumer confidence also influences real sales of retailers.     

Model selection in univariate time series forecasting using discriminant analysis

When a large number of time series are to be forecast on a regular basis, as in large scale inventory management or production control, the appropriate choice of a forecast model is important as it has the potential for large cost savings through improved accuracy. A possible solution to this problem is to select one best forecast model for all the series in the dataset. Alternatively one may develop a rule that will select the best model for each series. Fildes (1989) calls the former an aggregate selection rule and the latter an individual selection rule. In this paper we develop an individual selection rule using discriminant analysis and compare its performance to aggregate selection for the quarterly series of the M-Competition data. A number of forecast accuracy measures are used for the evaluation and confidence intervals for them are constructed using bootstrapping. The results indicate that the individual selection rule based on discriminant scores is more accurate, and sometimes significantly so, than any aggregate selection method.     

Incorrect asymptotic size of subsampling procedures based on post-consistent model selection estimators

Subsampling and the m out of n bootstrap have been suggested in the literature as methods for carrying out inference based on post-model selection estimators and shrinkage estimators. In this paper we consider a subsampling confidence interval (CI) that is based on an estimator that can be viewed either as a post-model selection estimator that employs a consistent model selection procedure or as a super-efficient estimator. We show that the subsampling CI (of nominal level 1−α for any α(0,1)) has asymptotic confidence size (defined to be the limit of finite-sample size) equal to zero in a very simple regular model. The same result holds for the m out of n bootstrap provided m²/n→0 and the observations are i.i.d. Similar zero-asymptotic-confidence-size results hold in more complicated models that are covered by the general results given in the paper and for super-efficient and shrinkage estimators that are not post-model selection estimators. Based on these results, subsampling and the m out of n bootstrap are not recommended for obtaining inference based on post-consistent model selection or shrinkage estimators.     

"共同开发"模式初探:南中国海争端之解决

南中国海争端的解决急需具体的"共同开发"措施.本文在对"南极公约"模式和国际实践中常见的三种"共同开发"模式进行分析的基础上,提出信任构建措施有助于合作的达成,而且,应更注重合作机制的设置,以便有效解决南中国海争端.     

The roles of trust and experience in consumer confidence in conducting e‐commerce: a cross‐cultural comparison between France and Germany

Based on the Eurobarometer survey data, this study examined the roles of experience and cultural propensity to trust in consumer confidence in conducting e‐commerce. Compared with consumers in a low‐trust culture (France), consumers from a high‐trust society (West Germany) exhibit more confidence in conducting e‐commerce. This cultural difference is only evident among consumers with no prior e‐commerce experience but disappears among consumers with prior e‐commerce experience. There is no interaction effect of culture and experience. While consumer confidence in conducting e‐commerce declines with age within each culture, consumers of the same age groups tend to have higher confidence in conducting e‐commerce in West Germany than in France. Academic and practical implications were provided.     

化纤检测标准中置信区间的应用

置信区间在化纤检测标准中的应用处于刚刚起步的阶段。笔者在本文中对如何在化纤检测标准中应用置信区间来提升纺织行业的检测水平进行了详细的阐述,并建议纺织生产企业、检测机构引入该方法,这将有利于相关部门提高检测的科学性、合理性,正确反映产品的性能,又可节约检测成本。     

网络媒体公信力的树立与维护

公信力是新闻传媒取信于社会和公众的基本条件,也是影响媒体品牌塑造的重要因素。但是近几年来,由于受社会不良风气的影响和利益驱动,我国媒体公信力一直处于下降趋势,而网络媒体由于监督缺失和法规的滞后及受利益驱动其公信力较传统媒体更是有过之而无不及,不容乐观。本文阐述了网络媒体公信力的定义,概述了我国网络媒体公信力低的现状及表现,并在此前提下,强调公信力的重要性,同时,有针对性地提出关于树立与维护网络媒体公信力的建议。愿我国的网络媒体能在真正走向健康发展的道路上有所探索,从而获得广泛的影响力和极强的权威性。