The Effects of Industry Specialization on Auditors' Inherent Risk Assessments and Confidence Judgements*

This study experimentally examines how industry specialization affects auditors' inherent risk assessments and their confidence in those risk assessments. Two groups of participants ‐ experienced banking specialist auditors and equally experienced nonbanking auditors ‐ provided inherent risk assessments for a hypothetical banking client for two financial statement accounts. They assessed inherent risk for an industry‐specific account (loans receivable) and for a nonindustry‐specific account (property and equipment). The results indicate that nonbanking auditors assessed inherent risk significantly higher than industry specialists for all but the valuation assertion for the loans receivable account. However, the difference between the nonbanking auditors' and banking specialists' inherent risk assessments was not as great for the property and equipment account. Further, nonspecialists were less confident about the appropriateness of their inherent risk assessments compared with industry specialists. Potential implications for research and practice are discussed in light of the study's findings.     

网络媒体公信力的树立与维护

公信力是新闻传媒取信于社会和公众的基本条件,也是影响媒体品牌塑造的重要因素。但是近几年来,由于受社会不良风气的影响和利益驱动,我国媒体公信力一直处于下降趋势,而网络媒体由于监督缺失和法规的滞后及受利益驱动其公信力较传统媒体更是"有过之而无不及",不容乐观。本文阐述了网络媒体公信力的定义,概述了我国网络媒体公信力低的现状及表现,并在此前提下,强调公信力的重要性,同时,有针对性地提出关于树立与维护网络媒体公信力的建议。愿我国的网络媒体能在真正走向健康发展的道路上有所探索,从而获得广泛的影响力和极强的权威性。     

Fisher's Inverse Probability of 1930

In 1930 R. A. Fisher put forward the fiducial argument. This paper discusses the argument and its origins in Fisher's earlier work. It also emphasises the contribution of Mordecal Ezekiel to the 1930 publication.     

The structure of consumer confidence and real value added growth in retailing in the Netherlands

Consumer confidence is a determinant of the willingness to buy and thus of sales in retailing. The main purpose of this study is to investigate whether the structure of consumer confidence in the period 1987-2000 differs from the 1972-87 period. The main finding is that, in the 1972-87 period saving had a precaution motive and in the 1987-2000 period saving had a transaction motive. In the 1972-87 period, the utility and ability of saving were determined by the development of household wealth; and in the 1987-2000 period, the utility and ability of saving are determined by the level of household wealth. The perceived inflation is related more strongly to the perceived development of the general economic situation in the 1972-87 than in the 1987-2000 period. Empirical evidence is found that consumer confidence also influences real sales of retailers.     

Incorrect asymptotic size of subsampling procedures based on post-consistent model selection estimators

Subsampling and the m out of n bootstrap have been suggested in the literature as methods for carrying out inference based on post-model selection estimators and shrinkage estimators. In this paper we consider a subsampling confidence interval (CI) that is based on an estimator that can be viewed either as a post-model selection estimator that employs a consistent model selection procedure or as a super-efficient estimator. We show that the subsampling CI (of nominal level 1−α for any α(0,1)) has asymptotic confidence size (defined to be the limit of finite-sample size) equal to zero in a very simple regular model. The same result holds for the m out of n bootstrap provided m²/n→0 and the observations are i.i.d. Similar zero-asymptotic-confidence-size results hold in more complicated models that are covered by the general results given in the paper and for super-efficient and shrinkage estimators that are not post-model selection estimators. Based on these results, subsampling and the m out of n bootstrap are not recommended for obtaining inference based on post-consistent model selection or shrinkage estimators.     

A DISTRIBUTION–FREE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN QUANTILES WITH CENSORED DATA

Abstract. In the context of a two–sample problem, a confidence interval for the difference of appropriate quantiles of the two survival distributions is described. This method is especially useful when the data include some right–censored observations. A relevant mathematical result is proved.     

A model of information diffusion with asymmetry and confidence effects in financial markets

We present a model of multi-period continuous information diffusion in financial markets. We show that price and trading volume exhibit asymmetric term structures to information flow, where the diffusion rate accelerates more slowly at short horizons than it decelerates at long horizons. Bounded rationality is modelled by an endogenous trader confidence index which declines as stock price information becomes noisier, where lower confidence translates into lower trading volume and slower price accretion. Information diffusion slows and asymmetries are accentuated as traders lose confidence in information accuracy. Our empirical findings support the model's predictions of asymmetric momentum patterns and confidence effects.     

Model selection in univariate time series forecasting using discriminant analysis

When a large number of time series are to be forecast on a regular basis, as in large scale inventory management or production control, the appropriate choice of a forecast model is important as it has the potential for large cost savings through improved accuracy. A possible solution to this problem is to select one best forecast model for all the series in the dataset. Alternatively one may develop a rule that will select the best model for each series. Fildes (1989) calls the former an aggregate selection rule and the latter an individual selection rule. In this paper we develop an individual selection rule using discriminant analysis and compare its performance to aggregate selection for the quarterly series of the M-Competition data. A number of forecast accuracy measures are used for the evaluation and confidence intervals for them are constructed using bootstrapping. The results indicate that the individual selection rule based on discriminant scores is more accurate, and sometimes significantly so, than any aggregate selection method.     

Small‐scale Inference: Empirical Bayes and Confidence Methods for as Few as a Single Comparison

Empirical Bayes methods of estimating the local false discovery rate (LFDR) by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), originally developed for large numbers of comparisons, are applied to a single comparison. Specifically, when assuming a lower bound on the mixing proportion of true null hypotheses, the LFDR MLE can yield reliable hypothesis tests and confidence intervals given as few as one comparison. Simulations indicate that constrained LFDR MLEs perform markedly better than conventional methods, both in testing and in confidence intervals, for high values of the mixing proportion, but not for low values. (A decision‐theoretic interpretation of the confidence distribution made those comparisons possible.) In conclusion, the constrained LFDR estimators and the resulting effect‐size interval estimates are not only effective multiple comparison procedures but also they might replace p‐values and confidence intervals more generally. The new methodology is illustrated with the analysis of proteomics data.     

Statistical Inference under Symmetry

We explore the consequences of adjoining a symmetry group to a statistical model. Group actions are first induced on the sample space, and then on the parameter space. It is argued that the right invariant measure induced by the group on the parameter space is a natural non-informative prior for the parameters of the model. The permissible sub-parameters are introduced, i.e., the subparameters upon which group actions can be defined. Equivariant estimators are similarly defined. Orbits of the group are defined on the sample space and on the parameter space; in particular the group action is called transitive when there is only one orbit. Credibility sets and confidence sets are shown (under right invariant prior and assuming transitivity on the parameter space) to be equal when defined by permissible sub-parameters and constructed from equivariant estimators. The effect of different choices of transformation group is illustrated by examples, and properties of the orbits on the sample space and on the parameter space are discussed. It is argued that model reduction should be constrained to one or several orbits of the group. Using this and other natural criteria and concepts, among them concepts related to design of experiments under symmetry, leads to links towards chemometrical prediction methods and towards the foundation of quantum theory.