从问题意识视角认识“三个自信”--学习习近平总书记系列讲话体会

“道路、理论、制度”问题是中国特色社会主义理论研究的重要问题,也是习近平总书记一年来多次讲到的重要内容。这关系到举什么旗,走什么路．如何认识问题的提出是前提,如何认识“三个自信”是关键。30多年改革开放历程,正是雇解决问题中步步向前。如果眼里没有问题,也就不会改革、难言发展。有问题意识,是认识能力的表现;能畅所欲言直面问题,更是时代的进步。     

Confidence and decision

Many real-life decisions have to be taken on the basis of probability judgements of which the decision maker is not entirely sure. This paper develops a decision rule for taking such decisions, which incorporates the decision makerʼs confidence in his probability judgements according to the following maxim: the larger the stakes involved in a decision, the more confidence is required in a probability judgement for it to play a role in the decision. A formal representation of the decision makerʼs confidence is proposed and used to formulate a family of decision models conforming to this maxim. A natural member of this family is studied in detail. It is structurally simpler than other recent models of decision under uncertainty, which may make it easier to apply to practical decisions, whilst being axiomatically sound, permitting the separation of beliefs and tastes, and allowing comparative statics analysis of attitudes to choosing in the absence of confidence.     

CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE EORA,WIOD, EXIOBASE,AND OPENEU'S CONSUMPTION-BASED CARBON ACCOUNTS

In this paper, we take an overview of several of the biggest independently constructed global multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases and ask how reliable and consonant these databases are. The key question is whether MRIO accounts are robust enough for setting environmental policies. This paper compares the results of four global MRIOs: Eora, WIOD, EXIOBASE, and the GTAP-based OpenEU databases, and investigates how much each diverges from the multi-model mean. We also use Monte Carlo analysis to conduct sensitivity analysis of the robustness of each accounts’ results and we test to see how much variation in the environmental satellite account, rather than the economic structure itself, causes divergence in results. After harmonising the satellite account, we found that carbon footprint results for most major economies disagree by<10% between MRIOs. Confidence estimates are necessary if MRIO methods and consumption-based accounting are to be used in environmental policy-making at the national level.     

A Model Confidence Set approach to the combination of multivariate volatility forecasts

In predicting conditional covariance matrices of financial portfolios, practitioners are required to choose among several alternative options, facing a number of different sources of uncertainty. A first source is related to the frequency at which prices are observed, either daily or intradaily. Using prices sampled at higher frequency inevitably poses additional sources of uncertainty related to the selection of the optimal intradaily sampling frequency and to the construction of the best realized estimator. Likewise, the choices of model structure and estimation method also have a critical role. In order to alleviate the impact of these sources of uncertainty, we propose a forecast combination strategy based on the Model Confidence Set [MCS] to adaptively identify the set of most accurate predictors. The combined predictor is shown to achieve superior performance with respect to the whole model universe plus three additional competitors, independently of the MCS or portfolio settings.     

Derivation of confidence intervals of service measures in a base-stock inventory control system with low-frequent demand

We explore a base-stock system with backlogging where the demand process is a compound renewal process and the compound element is a delayed geometric distribution. For this setting it holds that the long-run average service measures order fill rate (OFR) and volume fill rate (VFR) are equal in values. However, though equal ex ante one will ex post observe differences as actual sample paths are different. By including a low-frequency assumption in the model, we are able to derive mathematical expressions of the confidence intervals one will get if OFR and VFR are estimated in a simulation using the regenerative method. Through numerical examples we show that of the two service measures it is OFR that in general can be estimated most accurately. However, simulation results show that the opposite conclusion holds if we instead consider finite-horizon service measures, namely per-cycle variants of OFR and VFR.     

信心经济与全面"小康"

现代经济本质上是信心经济,消费信心、投资信心、政治信心和可持续发展信心会对当前乃至未来经济发展产生不可忽略的影响。在我国,要实现全面“小康”的目标,必须促进从经济信心到信心经济的制度嬗变,进而形成社会范围的就业氛围。本文研究了构成信心经济的基本内容和影响信心经济的社会因素,旨在强化信心经济的理念和完善信心经济的制度规则。     

从文化求索到文化自觉和自信

近一百多年来,中华文化走过了求索、批判、彻底否定、反思、再认识与找回自信的过程。在树立文化自觉和自信的同时,要正确理解中华文化的内涵,要注意保持中华民族的文化本色,要坚持社会主义核心价值体系的引导作用,也要注意对外的文化交流学习。     

Uses,Abuses and Misuses of Significance Tests in the Scientific Community: Won't the Bayesian Choice be Unavoidable?

The current context of the “significance test controversy” is first briefly discussed. Then experimental studies about the use of null hypothesis significance tests by scientific researchers and applied statisticians are presented. The misuses of these tests are reconsidered as judgmental adjustments revealing researchers’requirements towards statistical inference. Lastly alternative methods are considered. Consequently we automatically ask ourselves “won't the Bayesian choice be unavoidable?”     

Confidence statements for efficiency estimates from stochastic frontier models

This paper is an empirical study of the uncertainty associated with technical efficiency estimates from stochastic frontier models. We show how to construct confidence intervals for estimates of technical efficiency levels under different sets of assumptions ranging from the very strong to the relatively weak. We demonstrate empirically how the degree of uncertainty associated with these estimates relates to the strength of the assumptions made and to various features of the data.