VULNERABILITY OF MICROFINANCE TO STRATEGIC DEFAULT AND COVARIATE SHOCKS: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

This paper investigates the repayment behavior of borrowers of a Pakistani microfinance institution (MFI) using a unique dataset of approximately 45,000 installment records over the period 1998–2007. In early 2005, the MFI introduced reforms that included improved enforcement of contingent renewal. The reforms led to a healthy situation with almost zero default rates. We hypothesize that strategic default under the joint liability mechanism was encouraged by weak enforcement of contingent renewal and was one of the factors responsible for the pre‐reform failure. To support this hypothesis, we show that before the reforms, a borrower's delay in installment repayment was correlated with other group members' repayment delays beyond the level explained by possible correlation of project failures due to locally covariate shocks. Such excessive correlation disappeared after the reforms, including the period after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. The empirical evidence thus demonstrates the existence and seriousness of the strategic default under weak dynamic incentives.     

游客对旅游地教育服务的支付意愿研究

为有计划性、引导性的倡导使用者付费的理念,建立公开透明、科学合理的定价机制,运用条件价值评估法(CVM)对全国12个省12个旅游景区的中国游客进行了实地抽样调查,分析游客对教育服务项目的支付意愿。基于2 800份有效问卷数据,获得了受访者支付意愿的分布形态和规律,构建了游客支付意愿与其影响因素之间关系的模型。结果显示:49.40%的游客愿意支付教育服务费用,平均支付额度为28.6元;游客的年龄、婚姻状态、学历、职业、收入与其教育服务支付意愿之间存在显著性关系,旅游地游客教育水平也直接影响游客的支付意愿,而性别与其支付意愿没有显著的差异。同时,游客的年龄、学历、职业、收入对支付方式的影响较大,64.1%的游客想通过门票支付,27.5%的游客想通过小费支付。     

Some notes on trichotomous choice discrete valuation

For some respondents, the bid offered by the dichotomous choice format used in the discrete choice technique can in fact be the true optimum. In this case the correct answer is neither yes or no, but indifferent. We shall show results from a trichotomous choice format and analyse whether it produces welfare measures with narrower confidence intervals than the dichotomous technique. Another well known problem in contingent valuation (CV) studies is that the volume of the good to be purchased from hypothetical markets is not, in many cases, defined in precise terms. We show how the trichotomous choice technique can be used to test for possible vagueness in the volume of the project to be valued.     

地方政府债务风险防范研究——基于发达地区政府债务的样本分析

地方政府债务是政府债务管理中极为敏感的话题。为正确认识发达地区政府的债务风险,进而有效防范地方政府债务风险,笔者选取发达地区某市的地方政府债务数据作为样本进行分析,认为该市的债务具有隐性化、或有化、投资性和公共性并存的特征,而其债务风险并不在于财务风险、挤出风险、金融风险、经济风险等,而在于由于制度和组织设计造成的管理风险。据此,笔者从债务制度供给、债务需要约束和地方债务管理三方面提出了防范地方政府债务风险的政策建议。     

An analysis of advisor choice, fees, and effort in mergers and acquisitions

This paper investigates the choice of financial advisors in mergers and acquisitions, the fees that the targets and the acquiring firms pay to these advisors, and the speed with which advisors complete transactions. Our sample includes 5337 merger deals announced during the period January 1995 to June 2000, that involved publicly traded targets and acquirers. We find that top-tier advisors are more likely to complete deals and to complete them in less time than lower tier advisors. However, the synergistic gains realized by the acquirers declined when top advisors were used. We also find that contingent fees play a significant role in expediting the deal completion. Surprisingly, we find that deals that are initiated by the advisors do not seem to take less time to complete. Our results suggest that the payment of larger advisory fees do not play an important role in determining the likelihood of completing the deal, but they are associated with greater acquisition gains realized by the acquirer. In addition, these synergistic gains are also associated with the switching by acquirers of their financial advisors within the same tier.     

Economic valuation of environmental services sustained by water flows in the Yaqui River Delta

We attempted to estimate the economic value of environmental services provided by restored instream flows in the water-scarce Yaqui River Delta in Mexico. The Yaqui River begins near the U.S.-Mexico border and continues for 400 km before reaching the Oviachic dam, but has not reached the nearby Gulf of California for decades due to diversions for irrigation. These diversions have degraded the riparian ecosystem, coastal wetlands, and estuaries. Environmental services provided by restored flows in the Yaqui River would include healthy riverside vegetation, wetlands and estuaries, fish and wildlife habitats, non-use values, and recreation. A contingent valuation survey in 40 neighborhoods in the most populated Delta city, Ciudad Obregon, was administered to estimate non-market values of instream uses. Respondents were given a current and hypothetical Delta scenario (the latter assumed restored water flows in the River) and asked a willingness-to-pay (WTP) question regarding purchasing water for environmental flows through higher water bills. Results from 148 in-person interviews indicated that households would pay an average of 73 pesos monthly. WTP was found related to key variables suggested by economic theory and contingent valuation studies elsewhere: income, educational level, number of children in the household, and initial bid amount. These results will allow decision makers to compare the benefits generated by different water uses, including environmental services, and to manage scarce water resources under a long-term sustainable approach.     

“期待价值权”在并购交易中的运用

＂期待价值权＂（Contingent Value Rights）在西方投资领域及法律实务中已经被广泛使用,但是在理论上却缺少系统深入的研究。而在中国,期待价值权还是一个新生事物,甚至目前尚未有相对应的中文术语。＂期待价值权＂是一种期权。它的出现有利于推动并购交易的顺利进行,特别是当并购双方对并购目标公司价值评估存在严重差异时,当双方对目标公司尚在研发中产品的价值无法作出准确判断时,＂期待价值权＂可以帮助减少并购方的风险,同时可以维护被并购方股东的权益。本文亦分析了＂期待价值权＂在美国的一些并购案,特别是医疗行业的并购案中的应用,从而给＂期待价值权＂在我国未来的并购案中的广泛运用提供参照。     

Willingness to Pay for Environmental Improvements in a Large City Evidence from The Spike Model and From a Non-Parametric Approach

In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is applied in order toestimate the social benefits of a set of environmental and urbanimprovements planned for the waterfront of the City of Valencia (Spain) asa consequence of the expansion and restructuring of its trading port. Asthe data show a high rate of zero responses, we applied the Spike model,one of the most recent models in CVM literature, since traditional models(Logit and Probit) are not suitable, given the characteristics of our data.The non-parametric approach is also applied in order to test the validity ofthe Spike model. The results show certain similarities between the Spikemodel and the non-parametric approach.     

Comparing consumer preferences for color and nutritional quality in maize: Application of a semi-double-bound logistic model on urban consumers in Kenya

Consumer preferences for white maize in East and Southern Africa concerns developers of maize biofortified with provitamin A carotenoids, since carotenoids impart a yellow or orange coloration. Urban consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for yellow maize was estimated, using a semi-double-bounded logistic model, based on a survey of 600 maize consumers in Nairobi, Kenya, at posho mills, kiosks and supermarkets. Consumers showed a strong preference for white maize. Only a minority would buy yellow maize at the same price as white maize, and fewer consumers in the posho mills (24%) and kiosks (19%) than in the supermarkets (34%) would do so. On average, consumers need a price discount of 37% to accept yellow maize. This discount was less at the posho mills (35%) and kiosks (37%) than in the supermarkets (48%). Most respondents (76%) were aware of the existence of fortified meal and the generally showed an interest. The average premium for fortified maize was much less than the discount for yellow: 5.9% for those aware and 7.4% for those unaware. Consumer preferences were influenced by socioeconomic factors such as gender, education, income and ethnic background. Women have a stronger preference for both white maize and fortified maize than men, and consumers with more education have a stronger preference for white. Income decreases the WTP for yellow maize as well as the price elasticity, but increases the WTP for fortified maize. Consumers originating from Western Kenya have a lower preference for white, while those from Central Kenya had a stronger preference for fortified maize.     

Joint estimation of discount rates and willingness to pay for public goods

We analyze willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental programs whose time periods of benefit and repayment differ, using a net present value framework that identifies parameters of both WTP and personal discount rates. Respondents to a contingent valuation survey focusing on protection of critical habitat buffer zones for the endangered Steller Sea Lion in Alaska were asked their willingness to pay for 1-, 5-, and 15-year repayment periods. We jointly estimate the personal discount rates and WTP via maximum likelihood, and compare with a model assuming a fixed, market discount rate.