Determinates of the decline in the income-velocity of money in China: a new perspective

The income velocity of money in China has been declining since the country’s reform. By studying the money demand behavior in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, we found that the marginal propensity to money demand is much higher in the non-agricultural sector. This implies that as the share of the agricultural sector in national income declines, monetary expansion is expected to meet not only the needs of income growth, but also the rapid structural shifts in the sectoral composition of income. Hence, non-inflationary monetary expansion is possible as development proceeds. This provides a new perspective in understanding the decline in the income-velocity of money in China. __________ Translated from Social Sciences in China (中国社会科学), 2005,(4) (in Chinese)     

Determinacy with nominal assets and outside money

Summary. We build a finite horizon model with inside and outside money, in which interest rates, price levels and commodity allocations are determinate, even though asset markets are incomplete and asset deliveries are purely nominal.Received: 2 July 2003, Revised: 1 December 2004 JEL Classification Numbers: D50, E40, E50, E58.Correspondence to: J. Geanakoplos     

Modelling the inflation process in transition economies: Empirical comparison of Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic

This paper starts from the observation that inflation in transition economies appears to be persistently high and volatile and attempts to provide some empirical characterisation of the inflation process in three such transition economies: Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. We first consider the role of monetary growth as a major causal factor for inflation in these economies, and argue that the evidence provides rather weak support for the causal relationship. We then propose a transition economy cost-plus model and estimate this using the equilibrium-correction modelling (ECM) strategy augmented by introduction of a number of transitory factors and changes in the internal structure of the real economy which we believe may have had a significant impact on inflation in these economies. We show that this approach enables us to account for long-run inflation in these economies from the early 1980s to the present despite the turbulence of the latter part of the sample period. Our results support wage and exchange rate based inflation policies.     

The effects of learning and signaling on money demand: With an application to heterodox inflation stabilization programs

This paper develops a nonlinear vector autoregression of inflation and money growth subject to changes in regime. The regimes are fully characterized by the mean and variance of inflation and are conjectured to be the result of alternative government policies. Agents are unable to observe directly whether government actions are indeed consistent with the inflation rate targeted as part of a stabilization program. However, as part of their money demand decision, agents construct probability inferences regarding the regime. Government announcements are assumed to provide agents with additional, possibly truthful information regarding the regime.  This specification is estimated using data from the Israeli and Argentine high-inflation periods. Results indicate that the successful stabilization program implemented in Israel in July 1985 was more credible than either the earlier Israeli attempt in November 1984 or the Argentine programs. Government's signaling might simplify the agents' inference problem and increase the speed of their learning but, under certain conditions, it might also increase inflation volatility. Welfare gains from a temporary increase in real balances might be high enough to induce agents to raise their money demand in the short-term even if they are uncertain about the nature of government policy and the eventual outcome of the stabilization attempt. Statistically, the model restrictions cannot be rejected at the 1% significance level. First version received: August 1998/Final version received: January 1999     

欧元走跌原因及发展趋势研究

论文首先分析了欧元启动以来走势及影响欧元走跌的各种因素;其次介绍了最适度货币区理论,并对欧元区是否是最适度货币区进行了探讨;最后对欧元前景及长期走势作了研究和预测,得出了欧元长期趋势向好的结论。     

从地下钱庄与洗钱的关系探讨遏制洗钱工作的对策

一些未经国家审批却履行金融机构职能的地下钱庄趁着金融开放程度的不足,从事为来历不明的资金进行洗钱等非法金融活动,对国家金融秩序带来冲击并给反洗钱工作带来难度.打击地下钱庄遏制洗钱应建立健全相关法律,加大对金融机构监管的力度;设立反洗钱的专门机构并对工作人员进行培训,实行专项打击并适时加强与国际反洗钱机构合作;拓宽个人的外汇买卖或兑换渠道并可尝试将部分地下钱庄变为合法的地方金融机构等.     

电子货币的特征及其理论基础分析

相对于传统货币,电子货币具有准货币、发行主体多元化、流通速度快、面临新风险等特征。电子货币的一些特征符合新货币经济学和内生货币供给理论所描述的经济状态。基于新货币经济学和内生货币供给理论对电子货币进行分析,得出结论：在电子货币完全流通的情况下,中央银行将逐渐丧失货币的垄断发行权,商业银行与其他非银行金融机构甚至非金融机构均可以发行电子货币,通货膨胀有可能不复存在,传统意义上的货币可能消失。     

Rethinking Money as an Institution of Capitalism and the Theory of Monetary Circulation: What Can Modern Heterodox Economists/Institutionalists Learn from Karl Polanyi?

Modern heterodox theories of money reject the neoclassical conception of money as primarily a medium to facilitate exchange. These heterodox theories of money all have as common starting point an analysis of credit-debt relations in which production is a central feature, with these economies organized along capitalistic design. The Keynesian-Marxian framework describing the process of monetary circulation, traditionally referred to as the theory of the monetary circuit (TMC), perhaps best represents this comprehensive vision. This broad TMC analytical framework is compatible with institutionalist theories of money that also point to the importance of credit-debt relations. The question, however, is whether this more unified heterodox theory of money, which describes sequentially monetary relations under capitalism, can be used to understand pre-capitalistic monetary institutions. By conceptualizing money as a means of payment rather than medium of exchange, Karl Polanyi’s analysis offers social scientists crucial insights to understanding monetary relations in all types of societies in which credit-debt relations have emerged historically.     

Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Korea: An Asymmetry Analysis

Previous studies included money supply volatility as well as output volatility as measures of uncertainty in estimating the demand for money. However, a more comprehensive measure of uncertainty is now constructed for many countries and is known as policy uncertainty. When we included this new measure in the formulation of the demand for money in Korea and relied upon a nonlinear specification of the money demand which allows us to assess the asymmetric effects of changes in the policy uncertainty measure, we found asymmetric long-run effects of policy uncertainty on the demand for cash in Korea. Our conjecture is that increased uncertainty induces Koreans to hold less cash in favor of safer assets and decreased uncertainty has opposite effects, though at different rate.     

Population ageing and inflation with endogenous money creation

This paper models a mechanism through which population ageing may induce a deflationary process. We propose an overlapping-generations model (OLG) with money created by credits (inside money) and intergenerational trade. The model links demographic factors, such as fertility rates and longevity, to prices. We show that lower fertility rates lead to smaller demand for credit and lower money creation, which in turn cause a decline in prices. Changes in longevity affect prices through real savings and the capital market. Furthermore, a few links between interest rates and inflation are addressed; they arise in the general equilibrium and are not thoroughly discussed in literature. Long-run results are derived analytically; short-run dynamics are simulated numerically.