资本投入、市场潜能与经济增长——来自“一带一路”沿线国家的证据

理清资本投入和市场潜能对“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长的影响,对深入贯彻和推动“一带一路”建设具有重要意义。本文以“一带一路”沿线44个国家为例,利用空间计量模型和经济增长模型,在测算44个国家1995－2018年生产率资本存量和市场潜能的基础上,对44个国家经济增长的动力源泉及其空间溢出效应进行实证分析。研究发现：（1）资本投入是“一带一路”沿线44个国家经济增长的主要动力源,资本投入每增加1%,经济平均增长0.361%;（2）空间溢出效应是“一带一路”44个国家经济发展不可忽视的重要因素,市场潜能每增加1%,经济产出平均提高0.419%,超过资本投入的产出弹性。（3）进一步的机制分析,发现产业集聚和居民消费是资本投入、市场潜能促进经济增长的两条渠道。本文的研究为评估“一带一路”沿线国家资本投入和市场潜能的影响效果提供了数据支撑和分析视角,也为探索“一带一路”国家经济持续发展提供了政策参考。     

Winning us with trifles: Adverse selection in the use of philanthropy as insurance

Research Summary: We study the use of corporate philanthropy as a form of reputation insurance, developing a formal model of such insurance to examine how the terms of insurance in equilibrium change under different assumptions about the firm and its stakeholders. We then test the predictions from this model in the U.S. petroleum industry and find that philanthropic donations offer insurance‐like benefits, but are also positively associated with subsequent oil spills—firms that give more, spill more—with this association being stronger for spills that are under firms’ control and in states with low civic capacity. These results are consistent with an adverse selection/moral hazard equilibrium and suggest that the use of philanthropy as reputation insurance may benefit firms at the cost of society. Managerial Summary: Firms that donate to social causes develop a reputation for being socially responsible, and are often given the benefit of doubt when negative information about them comes to light. But are philanthropic firms truly more responsible? We argue that firms that donate more may be more likely to do harm—those that expect to do harm later are likely to give more now, and those that know their reputation protects them may become less careful. Evidence from the U.S. petroleum industry is consistent with this argument, with firms that give more having more subsequent oil spills, but only the type of spills that are under the firm's control, and only in states where the firm faces weaker scrutiny.     

农村劳动力市场发育对农村土地流转的影响分析——基于农户调查的实证研究

利用农户调查数据,运用多元回归模型实证分析了农村劳动力市场发育对农地流转的影响。模型估算结果表明：在表征农村劳动力市场发育程度的四个变量中,工资自主决定程度对农地转出率影响最大,回归系数达到了0.528,即该变量每增加一个单位将会使农地转出率增长52.8%。就业流动自由度对农地转出率的影响也比较大,回归系数为0.423。就业市场服务体系完善程度对农地转出率的影响相对较小,回归系数为0.126。在此基础上,得出相应的政策启示。     

The impacts of value chain upgrading on the export of processed food

Upgrading in global value chains (GVCs) is an important path for developing countries to move along to capture higher benefits. Several qualitative studies of GVCs have identified two main upgrading types: economic (product, process, functional, and inter-sectoral) and social upgrading. The upgrading concept is widespread in productive sectors such as processed food, which has become a key export for developing countries. However, they have confronted multiple product standards required by global buyers. This study uses a case study of Thailand’s processed food exports (TPFEs). Although Thailand is a leading exporter of processed food, the country needs to upgrade in many areas related to production to meet global product standards and requirements. If Thailand fails to comply with global product standards, it will lose its export competitiveness. This study uses a gravity model to evaluate the impact of economic and social upgrading (EUP and SUP) on TPFEs. Our results show that upgrading types are significant in TPFEs, particularly for exports to developed countries. Process upgrading has a negative impact on TPFEs because of increased production costs to comply with product standards. However, process upgrading can lead to increased producers’ and exporters’ knowledge about how to comply with international standards. Consequently, process upgrading exhibits a lagged positive effect on TPFEs.     

西北地区铁路沿线经济带经济联系强度比较与分析——以兰新、包兰、西陇海、兰青铁路沿线为例

铁路干线在我国空间经济发展中占有极为重要的地位,已成为我国经济布局的重要轴线.西北地区铁路沿线经济带是中国西北部重要的经济增长区域,未来发展前景十分广阔.基于点一轴发展理论,以西北地区兰新、包兰、西陇海、兰青四大铁路干线为发展主轴,以各铁路干线沿线经过的25座节点城市为研究对象,利用城市流强度模型,测度并比较了四大铁路...     

The economic and environmental performances of rural districts in Italy: Are competitiveness and sustainability compatible targets?

This paper analyses the economic performances of the rural system and the level of land sensitivity to degradation in Italy. Three indicators (district value added, share of agriculture on total product, and a composite index of land sensitivity) were used to classify 784 Italian local districts into eight performance classes. Four classes share a combination of high environmental quality (in terms of land degradation), high (or low) economic performances, and high (or low) productivity of the primary sector. The remaining four are characterised by a combination of low (and declining) environmental quality, high (or low) economic performances, and high (or low) productivity of the primary sector. The eight classes were grouped into four ‘environmental quality’ types and four ‘target performance’ categories to discriminate among high- and low-performance districts by considering twelve additional variables within a Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA). 148 high environmental performance districts (18% of total) were identified mainly across the Alps and Apennine while 314 districts (41%) were classified in the lowest performance class and concentrated in flat areas of southern Italy. The districts with high environmental performances were characterised, on average, by medium to low district value added, moderately low economic weight of the primary sector, and tourism specialisation. Districts with high economic performances and low environmental performances were characterised by high sensitivity to LD, low district value added, high share of agriculture in total product, and the lowest productivity of labour in all economic sectors. In these districts the risk of entering a downward spiral of rural poverty and environmental degradation is potentially high.     

经济发展对信贷增长促进作用的实证分析

对信贷增长与经济增长的关系进行研究,对于探索经济金融协调发展之路有着重要的政策含义.本文选取反映经济发展水平最具代表性的GDP和货币政策决策的重要信息变量之一的信贷规模,建立东、中、西部地区相关回归模型,分区域对经济发展促进信贷增长的作用进行了比较分析.结果显示:经济发展水平决定了金融发展水平,区域经济发展的差异会导致区域金融发展也存在差异.     

Searching for empirical linkages between demographic structure and economic growth

Demographic structure could affect economic growth through many channels. However, little is known about how demographic structure affects economic growth since no study has examined an extensive collection of channels through which demographic structure could affect economic growth in a single context. This paper overcomes this limitation by examining 45 potential mediating variables between demographic structure and economic growth. A causal search algorithm is used to identify channels through which demographic structure affects economic growth. Our results suggest that demographic structure affects economic growth differently between developed and developing countries. For developed countries, we find that an increase in the share of middle-aged workers has a positive effect on economic growth through institutions, investment and education channels. On the other hand, an increase in the share of the senior population has a negative effect on economic growth through institutions and investment channels. For developing countries, we find (but with weak evidence) that an increase in the share of young workers has a negative effect on economic growth through investment, financial market development and trade channels.     

多元化战略、经济绩效与资本结构——关于上市公司股权融资偏好解释

我国上市公司存在十分强烈的股权融资偏好,学术界一般将其原因归结为股权融资成本偏低。笔者研究则表明,融资成本因素并不能全部解释上市公司股权融资偏好。本文从企业多元化经营战略角度来剖析股权融资偏好。研究发现:企业多元化程度越低负债率越低,企业经济绩效越好;企业有动力降低负债率,采用股权融资。研究还发现,企业多元化战略已经构成融资决策的有效约束,股权融资偏好是上市公司的理性选择。     

技术-经济范式赶超机遇与中国创新政策转型

新技术革命为我国带来了新的技术赶超机遇,但也加剧了国家间的技术竞争。“中兴事件”暴露出我国核心技术自主创新能力短板。根据佩蕾丝、弗里曼等对技术革命浪潮的研究,当前我国正处在新旧技术-经济范式转换阶段,处于技术赶超机遇期。美、德两国在19世纪下半叶赶超英国的经验给我国的启示是,以追踪世界新技术-经济范式为导向的创新政策是我国实现技术赶超的必要条件。要抓住技术赶超机遇就必须反思目前我国创新政策缺陷,通过创新政策转型和创新,营造促进民族企业创新的社会经济环境,从而引导创新环境特征转变、促进向世界新技术-经济范式转换并跻身于并跑和领跑行列。因此,加强金融规制、系统性支持民族创新企业、培育民族高技术产业创新集群、加大人力资本投资力度和鼓励人才流动等成为我国创新政策转型的重要内容。