When bad news is good news: Geopolitical risk and the cross-section of emerging market stock returns

Using a news-based gauge of geopolitical risk, we study its role in asset pricing in global emerging markets. We find that changes in risk positively predict future stock returns. The countries with the highest increase in geopolitical uncertainty outperform their counterparts with the lowest change by up to 1% per month. The anomaly is not explained by other established asset pricing effects and remains robust to many considerations. We link the observed phenomenon with investor overreaction to geopolitical news driven by the availability bias.     

境外战略投资者持股比例对中国商业银行绩效影响研究

本文选取28家国内银行1995-2008年的面板数据,研究引入境外战略投资者持股比例对我国银行盈利能力、资产质量、稳定性、资产配置能力、创新能力、公司治理等经营层面的影响。研究结果显示,境外战略投资者的持股比例提高有助于提升银行贷款质量和改善公司治理,但境外战略投资者持股比例对银行盈利能力、稳定性、资产配置能力、创新能力影响并不显著。境外战略投资者持股比例对不良贷款率和存贷比的影响呈U型,该比例在达到一定水平(拐点)后会增加银行的贷款投放,而在增加银行贷款投放的同时不良贷款率也会增加。     

公司权益价值的非线性效应——基于持续经营和转换期权分析

基于对持续经营价值与转换期权价值的分析,本文将两种非线性效应引入了传统的线性权益定价模型。同时进一步考虑税收摩擦,新的模型刻画了公司权益价值关于其营业收入的凹性关系:即公司的权益价值随公司营业收入单调递增,而其边际贡献却在递减。基于中国A股上市公司财务数据的实证结果表明:就单一行业而言,定价模型所描述的关系基本成立;但由于异质性的存在,不同行业的营业收入与权益价值之间并不存在同一的非线性协整关系。     

Banks’ equity performance and the term structure of interest rates

Using an extensive global sample, this paper investigates the impact of the term structure of interest rates on bank equity returns. Decomposing the yield curve to its three constituents (level, slope and curvature), the paper evaluates the time‐varying sensitivity of the bank's equity returns to these constituents by using a diagonal dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH framework. Evidence reveals that the empirical proxies for the three factors explain the variations in equity returns above and beyond the market‐wide effect. More specifically, shocks to the long‐term (level) and short‐term (slope) factors have a statistically significant impact on equity returns, while those on the medium‐term (curvature) factor are less clear‐cut. Bank size plays an important role in the sense that exposures are higher for SIFIs and large banks compared to medium and small banks. Moreover, banks exhibit greater sensitivities to all risk factors during the crisis and post‐crisis periods compared to the pre‐crisis period; though these sensitivities do not differ for market‐oriented and bank‐oriented financial systems.     

控股股东股权质押与员工持股计划“工具化”——基于A股上市公司的实证研究

自2014年《关于上市公司实施员工持股计划试点的指导意见》颁布以来,受到资本市场的广泛关注和支持,实施员工持股计划的公司逐渐增加。与此同时,控股股东股权质押可能引起的控制权转移风险也成为需要重点关注的问题。那么,有质押的控股股东是否会策略性地利用员工持股计划来缓解风险？本文利用2013—2018年A股上市公司的样本,考察控股股东质押对员工持股计划的影响。研究发现:前期控股股东有股权质押、质押率越高的公司随后推行员工持股计划的可能性越大,该效应随着控制权转移风险的提高而增大;控股股东股权质押的员工持股计划进行短期市值管理是有效的,但并未显著提升公司长期价值,提示控股股东存在借其进行内部人利益绑定和市值管理的动机;进一步研究表明,公司内部治理机制对控股股东股权质押下推行员工持股计划的效果有限。     

Rare disaster risk and the expected equity risk premium

Consistent with the predictions of rare disaster models, we find that a proxy for the time‐varying probability of rare disasters helps to explain fluctuations in expectations of the equity risk premium. Our proxy for disaster risk is a recently developed measure of global political instability, and the expected market risk premium is from Value Line analysts' expected stock returns. Consistent with long‐run risk models, uncertainty about expected GDP growth and expected consumption growth is also significantly positively related to the expected market risk premium. We obtain similar results when we use the earnings–price ratio and the dividend–price ratio as proxies for the expected market risk premium.     

Can stochastic discount factor models explain the cross-section of equity returns?

We propose a multivariate test of the capital asset pricing model (C-CAPM) of the cross-sectional variation in equity returns in which we compare cross-sectional variation in equity returns to the cross-sectional variation in their conditional covariance with stochastic discount factors. We use a multivariate generalized heteroskedasticity in mean model to estimate 25 portfolios that are formed on size and the book-to-market ratio. Each portfolio is allowed to have its own no-arbitrage condition. We find that although the conditional covariances of returns with consumption exhibit negative variation across size, they do not vary across the book-to-market ratio. Thus, C-CAPM can capture the size effect, but not the value effect. The fit is, however, improved by allowing the coefficients on the consumption covariances to be different. The value effect appears to be associated with the book-to-market ratio as well as size. On its own the book-to-market ratio does not generate additional information about average returns to C-CAPM. A possible explanation for these findings is that both small and low book-to-market ratio firms are expected to have higher rates of growth.     

对基于价值无差异的资产定价模型的实证检验——兼解释股权高溢价之谜

陈小悦和孙力强（2007）在价值无差异的基础上建立了一套全新的定价模型,本文采用股票市场的数据对该模型进行了实证检验,模型检验的同时也是对股权溢价之谜进行解释。研究结果表明,本文的定价模型在美国、中国内地和中国香港三个市场的检验都取得了良好的效果,即市场风险溢价均值都向模型的理论值收敛,实际风险溢价与理论值差异很小且不显著,采用该模型可以准确地描述股票市场组合收益率与风险的关系,并对股权溢价之谜做出合理的解释。     

Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle reconsidered

Benartzi and Thaler [The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (1995) 73–92] offer a quasi-rational explanation for the equity premium puzzle. We reconsider their methodology and, making a simple modification to it, find that their analysis is not robust.     

Earnings Components,Accounting Bias and Equity Valuation

In this paper we address three issues in accounting-based equity valuation: (i) How are valuation parameters related to earnings persistence and accounting conservatism when earnings components aggregate, or “add up”, in valuation? (ii) What does aggregation of earnings components in valuation imply for abnormal earnings dynamics? and (iii) When is an earnings component “irrelevant” and “core”?earnings the relevant construct for valuation? Assuming linear valuation, no-arbitrage, dividend irrelevance and clean surplus accounting, we show that when earnings components aggregate, valuation expressions and abnormal earnings dynamics are generalizations of the Ohlson (1995) model, incorporating simple adjustments for accounting conservatism. When “core” earnings are the relevant earnings construct, valuation expressions closely resemble the aggregation case, but core (abnormal) earnings replaces clean surplus (abnormal) earnings. We demonstrate that an earnings component can be irrelevant in valuation even when it is predictable.