International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore

This paper investigates the responses of market interest rates to US monetary policy announcements for the US and two emerging economies, Hong Kong and Singapore which are similar on many respects but have experienced opposite exchange rate regimes in the last twenty years. Our results, based on market expectations extracted from federal fund futures rates, document that FOMC announcements significantly affect the term structure of interest rate in the US and both Asian countries. Further, international interest rate differentials around FOMC meeting dates tend to be negative for short maturities with the impact gradually dissipating as bond maturity increases. Finally, for the case of Singapore, we find that domestic interest rates react to both external and domestic monetary policy announcements with a magnitude that is larger over the full bond maturity spectrum for domestic announcements. These results are robust to time-varying futures risk premia and alternative measures of interest rates expectations.     

Running From a Bear: How Poor Stock Market Performance Affects the Determinants of Mutual Fund Flows

Abstract:  Using a proprietary data set to study how past performance affects the determinants of mutual fund flows for a sample of load fund investors, I provide evidence that the determinants of fund flow depend on market conditions for both redemptions and purchases. Specifically, I show that, for redemptions, relative performance and risk adjusted performance are important determinants during a period of record flows into mutual funds. Conversely, during a period of poor performance, absolute performance becomes much more important and relative performance and risk adjusted performance become less important. For purchases, absolute performance, risk adjusted performance, and most relative performance measures become more important during the bear market.     

美中贸易收支与人民币汇率关系:实证分析

针对美中贸易收支与人民币汇率问题,经研究发现,汇率变动对贸易收支的影响是值得怀疑的,仅仅依靠人民币汇率变动是无法解决美中贸易逆差问题的。1994—2002年年度数据实证显示,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率(名义或实际汇率)之间没有稳定的关系;1998—2003年月度数据计量表明,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系。并且,依据美中两国月度统计数据计量的结论是相一致的。因此,“人民币升值论”或许更多的是基于政治而非经济因素,人民币汇率浮动并不能解决美中贸易逆差问题。     

Structural current accounts in the European Union countries: cross-sectional exploration

This paper investigates structural determinants of the current account balance and assesses whether the current accounts in the European Union countries were consistent with the calculated structural current accounts between 1995 and 2017. We estimate current account regressions using cross-sectional data for 94 countries in 2008–2016 and confirm the main findings with panel data estimates. We document that the current account depends on the real exchange rate in a nonlinear way. The real exchange rate affects the current account at low income levels, but it ceases to be important at high income levels. Based on structural current account estimates for the European Union countries, we document that after the 2008 crisis current accounts adjusted towards structural current accounts in deficit countries, but persisted above structural current accounts in surplus countries.     

科研院所科研经费全过程管理模式研究

科研经费是支撑科研活动的重要物质保障,随着科技事业的不断发展,科研经费规模也持续扩大,但由于科研院所的经费管理方式与快速增长的科研经费不完全适应,使得科研经费使用中存在的问题逐渐显现出来。针对经费管理的预算、使用和结算等环节存在的问题,提出以制度为管理底线,以考核为规范上限,各部门人员沟通协助的全过程经费管理模式,以期为强化科研经费管理、规范经费使用提供借鉴。     

影响人民币汇率政策选择的因素--基于决策理论的实证分析

基于决策理论和实证分析方法,得出影响我国政府选择汇率政策的因素是:当前的宏观经济状况对人民币汇率政策的选择的确产生了重要的影响,而外汇储备的高速增长和经常账户余额的状况是2005年汇率政策改革的主要影响因素。因此,当前汇率政策改革是宏观经济形势影响政府效用的结果。     

Cost of monitoring and risk taking in the money market funds industry

Increasing the cost associated with gathering information can hamper the monitoring activity of the market even when information remains public. Using the 2015 US money market funds (MMFs) reform as a quasi-natural experiment, I find a positive effect of removing information requirements over credit ratings on the allocation by MMFs toward securities rated as second tier. The effect is driven by monitored MMFs catering to retail investors and by monitored MMFs that do not voluntarily report credit ratings after the reform. The verfied increase in the relative demand by MMFs for second tier securities is associated with a decrease in the spread paid at issuance by second tier commercial paper.     

六西格玛管理方法在化纤生产中的应用

运用六西格玛管理方法,通过数据积累和统计分析,找出了影响前纺卷绕断大头和成品优等品率的主要因素,使用相关分析工具,对关键参数进行过程能力对比分析,找到了解决问题的有效途径,循此途径解决问题后,提高了产品质量,增加了经济效益.     

The Real Equilibrium South African Rand/US Dollar Exchange Rate: A Comparison of Alternative Measures

This article indicates how different measures of the real exchange rate, i.e., the exchange rate adapted for cost inflation, price inflation and labour costs, influence the equilibrium view and misalignment of the South African rand/US dollar exchange rate. The approach followed is based on the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate approach by Clark and MacDonald (1998), where the exchange rate is influenced by a number of fundamental and transitory factors. The real equilibrium exchange is estimated by using a single equation regression and a number of key explanatory variables. To determine the long-run relationship a Vector Error Correction Mechanism is used.