DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN BONDS RATINGS: A ROBUSTNESS ANALYSIS

Several studies have attempted to deduce the determinants of sovereign bond ratings. In this study, Extreme Bounds Analysis is applied to approximately 30 factors proposed by the literature in order to assess their robustness with a focus on the relative importance that economic and political variables receive in the shaping of the ratings. We find that policies that constrain the public sector are among the most robust. Variables such as rule of law, openness to economic flows, central bank independence, and market friendly policies are found to be more robustly correlated with the ratings than foreign reserves, fiscal deficit, sovereign bond yields, and economic growth.     

The maximum number of parameters for the Hausman test when the estimators are from different sets of equations

Hausman (1978) developed a widely-used model specification test that has passed the test of time. In this paper, we show that the asymptotic variance of the difference of the two estimators can be a singular matrix. Three illustrative examples are used, namely an exogeneity test for the linear regression model, a test for the Box–Cox transformation, and a test for sample selection bias.     

Corporate Cash Holding in Asia

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of corporate saving in the form of changes in cash holdings for 11 Asian economies using firm‐level data from the Oriana Database for the 2002–2011 period. We find some evidence that cash flow has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings (i.e. that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is positive) and that the positive impact of cash flow on the change in cash holdings is larger and more significant in the case of smaller and presumably more constrained firms than in the case of larger and presumably less constrained firms in both developed and developing economies. Both of these findings corroborate the importance of financial constraints in Asian firms. In addition, we find that the cash flow sensitivity of cash declined after the global financial crisis and that Tobin's q has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings, especially in the case of larger and presumably unconstrained firms.     

How Reliable Are the Findings of ‘Foreign’ Investor Studies That Use TIC Data? A Look from the Host Market

Empirical literature on foreign investors' trading in stock markets heavily relies on US Treasury International Capital (TIC) data. Biases in TIC data and the fact that it represents only one source country raise questions on how reliable the conclusions based on TIC data are. Employing novel data of complete foreign flows compiled at destination, we answer these questions. Although the correlations between net flows derived from TIC and destination‐compiled data are low, and visible differences exist in some individual country results, TIC findings are not far off in central tendency. Notably, however, net foreign flows' persistence, positive response to world returns and positive contemporaneous correlation with local returns are more significant than TIC data suggest. Measurement noise in TIC data appears to result in underestimation of these key features.     

Waiting for Signaling Quality

When a durable good of uncertain quality is introduced to the market, some consumers strategically delay their buying until the next period, with the hope of learning the unknown quality. I analyze the monopolist's pricing and waiting strategies when consumers have strategic delay incentives. I show when the monopolist offers introductory low prices in pooling equilibria. I also find two types of separating equilibria: one where the high‐type monopolist signals its quality by choosing a different price than the low‐type monopolist in the first period and another where the high‐type monopolist announces the product in the first period and waits to sell only in the second period. Waiting creates a credible cost for signaling; hence, the monopolist uses it as a signaling device.     

Bidder's Gain: Evidence from Termination Returns

In most cases, bidder's stock returns around merger announcement convey more information than the synergy created from the acquisition. To overcome the interpretation problem, I study the bidder's return from the perspective of deal termination. Using a hand‐collected dataset on terminated merger proposals, I investigate termination returns in deals canceled for reasons unrelated to the bidder's stand‐alone valuation. I find that bidder's gain varies significantly with the type of target acquired. Further evidence suggests that the liquidity need of private target significantly contributes to the positive gain to the bidder.     

User Fee Abolition and the Demand for Public Health Care

This research examines the effect of the abolition of user fees in South Africa, a policy implemented in 1994 for uninsured children under the age of six and the elderly uninsured, as well as pregnant and nursing mothers. The analysis focuses on the implementation of the policy and the use of curative public healthcare services by children following strict and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs. The estimates point to statistically insignificant average and local average policy effects, even though the policy appears to have been implemented reasonably effectively, albeit imperfectly. In other words, the policy did not, on average, affect the use of curative public healthcare, at least for those children who should have benefited from the policy.     

Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach

This paper investigates the influence of liquidity in the major developed and major developing economies on commodity prices. Liquidity is taken to be M2. A novel finding is that unanticipated increases in the BRIC countries’ liquidity is associated with significant and persistent increases in commodity prices that are much larger than the effect of unanticipated increases in G3 liquidity, and the difference increases over time. Over 1999–2012 BRIC liquidity is strongly linked with global energy prices and global real activity whereas G3 liquidity is not. The impact of BRIC liquidity on mineral and metal prices is twice as large as that of G3 liquidity. Granger casualty goes from liquidity to commodity prices. BRIC and G3 liquidity and commodity prices are cointegrated. BRIC and G3 liquidity and global output and global prices are cointegrated. We construct a structural factor-augmented error correction (SFAVEC) model.