后华尔街时代世界应该遵循科学发展观

华尔街确立了美国第一强国地位,华尔街在挫折中成长,美国的金融风暴宣布超前消费经济理念彻底破产,美国霸主地位将就此结束,世界多极化进一步形成,解决目前经济危机的唯一办法是投资实体经济而不是救市,严格限制虚拟经济的异常发展,“刺激消费、扩大内需”值得商榷,后华尔街时代世界应该遵循科学发展观。     

Land change variability and human-environment dynamics in the United States Great Plains

Land use and land cover changes have complex linkages to climate variability and change, biophysical resources, and socioeconomic driving forces. To assess these land change dynamics and their causes in the Great Plains, we compare and contrast contemporary changes across 16 ecoregions using Landsat satellite data and statistical analysis. Large-area change analysis of agricultural regions is often hampered by change detection error and the tendency for land conversions to occur at the local-scale. To facilitate a regional-scale analysis, a statistical sampling design of randomly selected 10 km × 10 km blocks is used to efficiently identify the types and rates of land conversions for four time intervals between 1973 and 2000, stratified by relatively homogenous ecoregions. Nearly 8% of the overall Great Plains region underwent land-use and land-cover change during the study period, with a substantial amount of ecoregion variability that ranged from less than 2% to greater than 13%. Agricultural land cover declined by more than 2% overall, with variability contingent on the differential characteristics of regional human-environment systems. A large part of the Great Plains is in relatively stable land cover. However, other land systems with significant biophysical and climate limitations for agriculture have high rates of land change when pushed by economic, policy, technology, or climate forcing factors. The results indicate the regionally based potential for land cover to persist or fluctuate as land uses are adapted to spatially and temporally variable forcing factors.     

The impact of the Great Recession on TFP convergence among EU countries

This article provides evidence on the effect of the Great Recession on productivity convergence among European Union (EU) economies. We use firm data, aggregated at the country-year level, to analyse the evolution of beta-convergence on total factor productivity (TFP) for 2003–2014. We obtain a positive impact of the recession on TFP (unconditional and conditional) beta-convergence across EU economies. These results support the existence of a catching-up process within the EU during the recent financial crisis. Other macroeconomic and institutional characteristics are important in fostering TFP growth, namely R&D intensity and quality of governance.     

重大科研项目管理的大科学模式分析

在分析大科学模式内涵的基础上,回顾了我国重大科研项目大科学模式的历史经验和运行机制,根据我国实施重大科研项目大科学模式的内部技术进步压力和外部技术发展形势,提出了我国实施重大科研项目大科学模式的对策。     

The New Deal and the origins of the modern American real estate loan contract

The fully amortized mortgage loan contract is an important instance of financial innovation in the U.S. residential mortgage market. We examine the adoption of this contract from the 1880s to the 1930s by building and loan (B&L) associations, the nation's most important institutional home mortgage lenders at the time. A chain of complementary innovations by B&Ls gradually reduced the costs of adopting amortization, supporting moderate use by the 1920s. During the crisis of the 1930s, the poor performance of the traditional B&L loan contract radically increased the benefit of adoption, as borrowers demanded the new contract. The adoption examined here occurred primarily in the conventional loan market because B&Ls, unlike other lenders, generally avoided the use of the new Federal Housing Administration insurance program. The New Deal may have had more impact through new federal savings and loan charters, which incorporated many of the complementary innovations that supported the new form of lending.     

儒家经典《大学》之“大学之道”探释

儒家“大学之道”深深影响了传统中国社会,对社会及历史文化的发展起到了不可替代的重要作用。而其对国民人文素质的影响,体现为对中国传统社会的稳定、发展起着独特的积极作用。《大学》之“大学之道”所展现的是儒家追求“王天下”最高理想的理论依据,其中“三纲领”是其政治伦理体系的最基本框架,而“八条目”是实现平天下理想的具体步骤;它们相互联系、前后衔接,共同构成了儒家完整的理论体系。     

Why Don’t Oil Shocks Cause Inflation? Evidence from Disaggregate Inflation Data

This paper uses disaggregate U.S. inflation data to evaluate explanations for the breakdown of the relationship between oil price shocks and consumer price inflation. A data set with measures of inflation, energy intensity, labor intensity, and sensitivity to monetary policy is constructed for 97 sectors that make up core CPI inflation. A comparison of the 1973–85 and 1986–2006 time periods reveals that substitution away from energy use in production and monetary policy were both important, with approximately two‐thirds of the change in response of inflation to oil shocks being due to reduced energy usage, and one‐third to monetary policy. We find no evidence that other factors, such as changes in wage rigidities or changes in the persistence of oil shocks, played a role.     

Analyzing U.S. Output and the Great Moderation by Simultaneous Unobserved Components

This paper seeks to determine the causal interaction between structural trend and cycle innovations in an unobserved components framework of aggregate output. For the purpose of identification, I propose allowing for shifts in volatility. This strategy provides good estimation precision when applied to U.S. industrial production. In the early 1980s, predominance of cycle shocks gives way to strong negative spillovers of trend impulses, consistent with real business cycle theories. The coincident reduction of macroeconomic volatility was mainly caused by pronounced dampening of transitory disturbances. This is in accordance with an important role of macroeconomic policy in explaining the Great Moderation.     

Interwar Inflation,Unexpected Inflation,and Output Growth

Interwar macroeconomic history is a natural place to look for evidence on the correlation between output growth and inflation or unexpected inflation. We apply time‐series methods to measure unexpected inflation for more than 20 countries using both retail and wholesale prices. There is a significant, positive correlation between output growth and inflation for the entire period. There is little evidence that this correlation is caused by an underlying role for unexpected inflation. For wholesale price inflation in particular, the output declines associated with deflations were larger than the output increases associated with inflations of the same scale.