河南省高校学生参与西部大开发的态度差异分析

河南省高校学生对参与西部大开发具有较高的热情和积极性，但是由于各高校类别、城乡学生背景、信息了解程度、学生政治面貌等方面的不同，河南省高校学生参与西部大开发的态度、意愿也显示出一定的差异。国家在实施高校大学生支援西部开发的有关计划中应充分考虑中部地区高校学生的意愿。     

How could everyone have been so wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads

Contemporary observers viewed the recession that began in the summer of 1929 as nothing extraordinary. Using a neglected data set of forecasts by railroad shippers, we find that business was surprised by the magnitude of the Great Depression. We show that simple time series methods would have produced much smaller forecast errors than those indicated by the surveys, thus indicating that the survey forecasts were formed using more information than just the past history of the series. The depth and duration of the depression was beyond the experience of business, which appears to have believed that recovery would happen quickly as in previous recessions. Forecasts of inflation are then constructed using the survey forecasts. We find little evidence that the deflation that occurred during the Great Depression was foreseen, thus emphasizing the role of debt deflation in the propagation of the depression.     

Categories and causes of bank distress during the great depression, 1929–1933: The illiquidity versus insolvency debate revisited

During the contraction from 1929 to 1933, the Federal Reserve System tracked changes in the status of all banks operating in the United States and determined the cause of each bank suspension. This essay analyzes chronological patterns in aggregate series constructed from that data. The analysis demonstrates both illiquidity and insolvency were substantial sources of bank distress. Periods of heightened distress were correlated with periods of increased illiquidity. Contagion via correspondent networks and bank runs propagated the initial banking panics. As the depression deepened and asset values declined, insolvency loomed as the principal threat to depository institutions.     

The application of probit,logit, and tobit in marketing: A review

Recent work on the analysis of qualitative dependent variables having considerable potential in marketing research are reviewed and illustrated. In particular, three related models, probit, logit, and tobit, are discussed in a nontechnical manner. In the last few years, there has been a resurgence of interest among biologists, economists, and other social scientists in developing and generalizing these three models. Yet, despite their apparent utility in marketing research, there have been only one or two rather limited applications to date. The object of this review is to enable researchers to evaluate these models and to relate them to their existing statistical procedures. The models are defined and related to the multivariate methods commonly used in marketing research. Second, the theoretical problems associated with using regression analysis and similar procedures on qualitative data are noted and the assumptions needed to resolve such problems are presented. Third, marketing applications are reviewed and an illustration of a general form of the probit model is evaluated and compared.     

Climate change and tourism in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park

Climate change impacts such as coral bleaching are now evident on many coral reefs visited by tourists. This paper reports on climate change workshops and climate change actions implemented by tourism operators and agencies in Australia's Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, with a focus on eco-efficiency initiatives. The results of a climate change action survey of 82 Great Barrier Reef tourism operators are also presented. Climate change responses by coral reef destinations require a mix of environmental and business strategies.     

大兴安岭野生浆果资源利用状况及产业化发展对策

大兴安岭地区有30余种野生浆果,种类组成独特、单纯,质量好,储存量大,分布集中,易于采收;分析了大兴安岭地区野生浆果资源的总体情况和当前利用状况及存在的问题,提出了充分利用资源的思路和对策。     

Contractual Discrimination in Franchise Relationships

Franchisors often modify the contract terms offered to prospective (new) franchisees – to incentivize growth in the number of franchisees, to access capital, or to improve their financial performance. We argue that changes in contract terms offered to new franchisees (contractual discrimination across franchisees) can alter existing franchisees’ perceived equity in their relationship with the franchisor, and affect their freeriding. Specifically, we hypothesize, and show, that positive (negative) discrimination towards new franchisees reduces (maintains) existing franchisees’ perceived equity in their relationship with the franchisor, motivating existing franchisees to increase (eschew) freeriding – with impact on franchisors’ performance. To do so, we first take advantage of an exogenous event (the great recession of 2007-09) to study how 120 restaurant franchisors changed their contract terms to new franchisees and how that affected their post-recession net income (Study 1). We show that changes in contracts for new franchisees impact franchisors’ post-crisis performance, as a function of the number of existing franchisees. Second, with two experiments (Studies 2 and 3) with entrepreneurs and franchisees, we document that the observed changes in performance occur because contractual discrimination affects existing franchisees’ perceived equity and their intentions to free-ride. Thus, we contribute to the literature on equity in franchising relationships, on contract evolution in franchising, and its impact on financial performance.     

Nowcasting in real time using popularity priors

We construct a “Google Recession Index” (GRI) using Google Trends data on internet search popularity, which tracks the public’s attention to recession-related keywords in real time. We then compare nowcasts made with and without this index using both a standard dynamic factor model and a Bayesian approach with alternative prior setups. Our results indicate that using the Bayesian model with GRI-based “popularity priors,” we could identify the 2008Q3 turning point in real time, without sacrificing the accuracy of the nowcasts over the rest of the sample periods.