The German labor market during the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions

This paper analyzes Germany's unusual labor market experience during the Great Recession. We estimate a general equilibrium model with a detailed labor market block for post-unification Germany. This allows us to disentangle the role of institutions (short-time work, government spending rules) and shocks (aggregate, labor market, and policy shocks) and to perform counterfactual exercises. We identify positive labor market performance shocks (likely caused by labor market reforms) as the key driver for the “German labor market miracle” during the Great Recession.     

论唐代长城诗悲慨苍凉的写景风格

内容与长城、长城关隘、长城故事密切相关的诗作被称为长城诗,唐代长城诗具有较高的艺术风格,其中尤以悲慨、苍凉为主要写景风格,悲慨、荒凉,既是对北方边塞环境的客观写照,又是诗人内心情感在笔端的映射。因此悲慨、苍凉的唐代长城诗是长城文化的重要组成部分,具有重要的文化价值。     

Job reallocation in Korean manufacturing: 1984–2014

This paper investigates the patterns of job reallocation in Korean manufacturing during the period 1984–2014. Utilizing establishment-level data from the Mining and Manufacturing Survey, we construct job flow measures and document the trend of job reallocation and test its efficiency. We first find that the pace of job reallocation has diminished since the Asian Financial Crisis. Although jobs were reallocated from less productive to more productive establishments overall, we find that the productivity-enhancing effect has also diminished over time. Although recessions are known to be periods of intense reallocation and restructuring, job reallocation was not particularly more efficient during recessions in Korea. It even decreased during the Great Recession of 2008 because the exit probability of low-TFP establishments was reduced.     

我所亲历的三次危机

该文以亲身经历为基础,叙述了在华尔街所经历的三次金融危机;从一个从业人员和普通购房者的视角向读者展示了危机的来龙去脉。文章指出理论上,经济的周期性注定6年的繁荣终究会有尽头;而在实践中,多年的低利率带来的信用泛滥,以及华尔街为追求短期暴利而进行无止境的风险叠加．也致使金融风险扩散到社会和世界的每一个角落。     

Rejoinder to Paul Krugman

We provide a brief rejoinder to Krugman [2008, Response to Nelson and Schwartz. Journal of Monetary Economics 55, this issue] on three issues that are central to his original New York Review of Books article and his reply to our setting the record straight: (i) criticisms of Friedman; (ii) criticisms of monetarism; and (iii) interpretations of history.     

大饥荒与宗教信仰——基于CGSS数据的微观分析

文章采用2010—2013年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)微观数据,发现大饥荒对于个人宗教信仰选择具有长期影响。实证结果表明,在控制其他变量影响的情况下,成年时期经历过大饥荒的人群更加倾向于选择信仰宗教,并且考虑流动人口、DID方法和安慰剂(placebo)检验下的回归结果也非常稳健。同时,基于宗教社会网络模型和宗教事后保障模型,文章发现社交动机和个人健康状况是两者的重要影响机制。最后,文章提出了相应的政策建议。     

Did households’ time preference change due to the Great Recession?

Household time preference for US households, as measured by the planning horizon, was fairly stable for many years, but sharply changed with the onset of the Great Recession. Based on an analysis of a combination of the 1992–2013 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) datasets, time preference increased in 2010 and remained high in 2013, indicating households were less patient after the onset of the recession. This pattern held up even after controlling for household characteristics.     

The rise in student loan defaults

We examine the rise in student loan defaults in the Great Recession by linking administrative student loan data at the individual borrower level to student loan borrowers’ individual tax records. A Blinder-Oaxaca style decomposition shows that shifts in the composition of student loan borrowers and the massive collapse in home prices during the Great Recession can each account for approximately 30% of the rise in student loan defaults. Falling home prices affect student loan defaults by impairing individuals’ labor earnings, especially for low income jobs. By contrast, when comparing the default sensitivities of homeowners and renters, we find no evidence that falling home prices affect student loan defaults through a home equity-based liquidity channel. The Income Based Repayment (IBR) program introduced by the federal government in the wake of the Great Recession reduced both student loan defaults and their sensitivity to home price fluctuations, thus providing student loan borrowers with valuable insurance against negative shocks.     

储粮平房仓墙体热工设计

本文在参照了国家粮食低温库和节能保温建筑对墙体导热系数指标要求的基础上,并根据所在第四区储粮生态区划,对北京市储小麦的新建平房仓设计提出了墙体导热系数指标,进行了热工设计。这对其他地区储存其他品种粮食的平房仓墙体热工设计可以起到模板借鉴作用。