Discrepancies between ex ante and ex post efficiency under identical subjective probabilities

Summary. Starr (1973) showed that, if people have different subjective probabilities, ex ante and ex post efficiency conflict. Conversely, under the simple preferences that he considered, the discrepancy between ex ante and ex post efficiency disappears when subjective probabilities are identical. Here I consider identical subjective probabilities, but more general preferences. First, risk attraction is admitted. Second, I dispense with the double requirement (dubbed IZU) of additive separability and state-independence of the utility of zero-date consumption, an unrealistic requirement when modeling the investment in durable goods. I find that, under IZU, and as long as ex post preferences satisfy the natural assumption of quasiconcavity (and satisfy some technical qualifications), an ex ante efficient allocation is indeed ex post efficient, but the converse is not necessarily true under risk attraction. If, on the other hand, IZU is violated, then one can have ex ante efficient allocations that are not ex post efficient, and vice-versa, even under risk aversion. Received: June 25, 1999; revised version: March 2001     

知识资本风险预警指标体系及其评价方法研究

知识资本是知识型企业生存发展的关键核心资源,其存在不确定性和风险性.从人力资本状态、技术资本状态、管理资本状态、市场资本状态和顾客资本状态5个方面构建了知识型企业知识资本风险预警指标体系;利用模糊评价方法对指标体系进行了分析;结合具体算例说明了模糊评价方法的可应用性.     

Evaluating flood risk management options in Scotland: A participant-led multi-criteria approach

The characteristics of flood risk management include complexity, large spatial scales, inter-temporal issues, plural values and conflicts of interests. It is argued that issues with such characteristics require public participation in the decision making process. This study builds on existing deliberative processes to develop a new participant-led multi-criteria method to evaluate flood risk management options in Scotland. The results show that participants preferred regeneration or planting of native woodland to other flood management options, and least preferred building flood walls and embankments. The design of the workshops allowed a rich dataset to reveal the thinking behind such results and provided a deeper understanding of why participants came to these conclusions.     

浅谈金融创新与金融风险管理

中国金融业已全面对外开放,中资银行要与外资银行展开全面的合作与竞争,金融业必须加大金融创新的力度.当前金融创新呈现出新的趋势和特点:金融监管的自由化与国际化、金融业务多元化、金融交易电子化、金融产品复杂化、金融服务个性化及金融机构同质化.在金融创新同时,也产生了新的金融风险,要加强对金融风险的管理,保证金融稳定,促进金融创新,提高中国金融业的国际竞争力.     

加强建筑企业职业健康安全管理之我见

无论从建筑企业自身,还是行业发展;无论是近期生存还是长远发展,建立有效的职业健康安全管理体系,可有效保护建筑业劳动人员的健康安全,完善中国社会主义市场经济运行机制,促进社会稳定、经济健康发展。     

出生缺陷地理风险因子的空间分析

出生缺陷是影响人口出生质量最重要的因素。大量研究表明,出生缺陷仅仅靠单纯的生物医学研究还不够,多学科的交叉研究是有效探讨出生缺陷病因和预防的唯一出路。利用北京大学人口环境健康组调查数据,分类了能够在地理空间上归属的出生缺陷风险因素,将这些因素存在的空间相关性进行了传统统计分析方法不适宜的风险因子与出生缺陷统计因果之间的研究。探讨了空间分析技术在出生缺陷的地理风险因子研究的一般步骤与关键技术,为出生缺陷研究提供了新的思路。     

Art as an investment: Short and long-term comovements in major painting markets

This paper examines the short and long-term price linkages among major art and equity markets over the period 1976–2001. The art markets examined are Contemporary Masters, French Impressionists, Modern European, 19^th Century European, Old Masters, Surrealists, 20^th Century English and Modern US paintings. A global equity index (with dividends and capitalisation changes) is also included. Multivariate cointegration procedures, Granger non-causality tests, level VAR and generalised variance decomposition analyses based on error-correction and vector autoregressive models are conducted to analyse short and long-run relationships among these markets. The results indicate that there is a stationary long-run relationship and significant short and long run causal linkages between the various painting markets and between the equity market and painting markets. However, in terms of the percentage of variance explained most painting markets are relatively isolated, and other painting markets are generally more important than the equity market in explaining the variance that is not caused by innovations in the market itself. This suggests that opportunities for portfolio diversification in art works alone and in conjunction with equity markets exist, though in common with the literature in this area the study finds that the returns on paintings are much lower and the risks much higher than in conventional financial markets.The authors would like to thank delegates to the 14th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, University of New South Wales, seminar participants at the Queensland University of Technology and Massey University, Masaki Katsuura, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. The financial assistance of a Queensland University of Technology, Faculty of Business Research Initiative Grant is also gratefully acknowledged.     

供应链风险分析及决策模型

供应链管理对企业参与市场竞争有诸多优势,但由于市场的不确定性、合作企业信息的不对称性及其他随机因素的影响导致供应链存在很大风险.笔者分析了供应链基于成本型的风险因素,并根据不确定多属性决策理论提出了供应链决策模型.     

欠发达地区民间借贷的对策研究

近几年民间借贷案件数量不断上升,金融风险问题增多。从民间借贷风险防范的视角,以欠发达地区安徽省某地级市为例,介绍了欠发达地区民间借贷的现状,剖析了民间借贷存在的风险问题,如投资渠道不够畅通、民间借贷市场发展不规范、群众诚信意识不强、群众风险意识薄弱,提出风险防范建议,如加强政府对正规金融的支持、加强金融监管、加强诚信机制建设、增强民众金融素养。     

技术创新项目风险分析与综合评价

文章分析了企业技术创新项目的风险因素,在此基础上设置了风险评价指标体系,建立了模糊评判模型,对企业技术创新风险进行了科学评价,并能定量地衡量企业关于某个项目的技术创新风险大小,为企业技术创新决策和采取风险控制措施提供了依据。