GIS-based fuzzy multi-criteria approach for optimal site selection of fire stations in Istanbul,Turkey

Fire stations play a central role in protection and response activities as part of emergency management services in cases of fire incidences. With the rising urban populations and city expansions, the demand for more fire services resultantly increases. It then becomes critical to effectively plan the location of emergency facilities to adequately service the population and ensure the protection of lives and infrastructure. This study, therefore proposes the use of the fuzzy extension of the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) method of Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), hence called fuzzy AHP, integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach to optimally site new fire stations for the case of Istanbul region. This proposed fuzzy approach simulates the subjective expert judgements for the preferences of the six criteria assessed for fire station suitability mapping and thereby accounted for the uncertainty of crisp comparison values via triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs). The criteria weights evaluated from this procedure were used in a weighted overlay analysis of the reclassified criteria map layers in ArcGIS to generate a fire station suitability map. These resultant fuzzy AHP criteria weights were validated using another MCDM technique, called Best-Worst Method (BWM) and found to be comparable and consistent. The criteria that had the strongest influence on the selection of sites for fire stations were identified to be: the density of hazardous material facilities (DHM), a high population density (HPD) and proximity to main roads (PMR) with associated weights of 33.3%, 24.4% and 15.2%, respectively. Based on a thorough assessment within the areas represented by class values ranging from 3 to 5 on the suitability map, a total of 34 new fire station sites were selected complementing the existing 121 fire stations. Further, a prioritization analysis from low, medium to high, was performed to plan the phases for the construction of new fire stations in view of competing budgetary needs and resource constraints. The methodology to achieve this was proposed and modelled for enhancing the decision-making process in urban fire station site selection studies.     

Enhanced network effects and stochastic modelling in generation expansion planning: Insights from an insular power system

Electricity generation capacity expansion is driven by both economic and socio-political realities. Policy makers determine public infrastructural decisions, such as climate and renewable targets, and transmission infrastructure, and the optimal generation capacity expansion follows. Policy makers therefore require planning models that can determine the optimal generation capacity mix in the long run under various scenarios, including policy choices. This work presents a planning model based on linearised alternating current optimal power flow which determines optimal generation capacity expansion and operation, in a least-cost manner, given global and local technical constraints, as well as policy decisions. We apply the model to a test case of the island of Ireland, which has two weakly interconnected systems, high renewable generation targets and low storage and interconnection. We determine the optimal generation expansion and operation out to 2030 considering the effects of increased multi-area interconnection, existing fossil fuel generation phase-out and increased renewable generation targets and carbon prices. Our results find that costs and emissions are driven primarily by the decommissioning of old inefficient generation units. High renewable targets, on the other hand, render increased carbon prices relatively ineffective in reducing system emissions. Furthermore, high renewable generation targets crowd out low-carbon power generation options such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). The strategic north-south interconnection has little effect on renewable energy source installations required to achieve renewable power generation targets but does impact on security of supply and the congestion level across the island.     

城市科学20年的发展历程--祝贺中国城市科学研究会成立20周年

回顾北京市城市科学研究会的发展历程,分为多学科协同研究城市问题阶段;城市发展多学科综合研究阶段;城市发展综合研究向重点领域开展阶段.概括了北京城科会的主要学术成果.     

城市劳动力市场上的就业冲击对家庭教育决策的影响

本文使用中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济所的城市住户调查资料,分析了父母的就业冲击对子女大学入学决策的影响。作者对中国经济结构的调整和劳动力市场冲击进行了介绍,讨论了中国的高等教育体制及其新近在融资和扩招方面的改革措施。在经验分析部分,我们仔细地控制了家庭之间不可观测的差异性所产生的影响,并利用线性概率模型对父母就业冲击所产生的影响进行了测算,结果发现父亲失去工作使即将进入大学的子女的入学可能性下降了约30%。     

资源配置视角下战略性新兴产业基地建设决策过程研究

采用案例分析法,以国家传感网创新示范区建设的决策过程为研究对象,从资源配置视角重新审视了战略性新兴产业基地建设的决策过程。结果表明,在战略性新兴产业基地建设决策过程中,地方政府充分发挥了主观能动性,与中央政府、科研机构及企业积极互动,获得了建设产业基地的资源。同时,中央政府完成了与产业基地甄选及部署相关的资源配置。     

A marginal analysis guided technology evaluation and selection

Making decisions on strategic investments, such as early stage manufacturing technology (MT), is a complicated task. Early stage technologies are usually costly, and surrounded by uncertainty. The potential benefits are often hard to quantify prior to implementation. Thus, how could managers make good decisions in a high-risk, technically complex business when the information they need to make those decisions comes largely from the project champions who are competing against one another for resources? Traditionally, in this problem domain, decisions are made based upon gut-feeling and past experience, sometimes with the support of some multi-criteria decision-support tools. The criteria evaluation process is very subjective and relies heavily on managers’ experience, knowledge, as well as intuition. Thus, the evaluation approach is often not effectively carried out as there is lack of visibility and traceability in the decision making process. The impact of this scenario is that managers are not confident that resources are being optimised and applied to a mixed portfolio of projects to maximise benefits. This paper proposes a marginal analysis directed branch and bound approach for evaluating and selecting early stage manufacturing technology (MT) projects. A case study is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach. Implications of the proposed approach to practitioners and academia are discussed and future research outlined.     

Self-regulation and moral awareness among entrepreneurs

Moral awareness underpins moral reasoning and ethical decision making. This mixed methods study investigates a critical feature of these phenomena among entrepreneurs, namely the influence of social cognitive self-regulation on moral awareness. Results suggest that entrepreneurs with stronger self-regulatory characteristics are more morally aware and relate such awareness to maintaining personal integrity and building inter-personal trust. In contrast, entrepreneurs with weaker self-regulatory characteristics appear less morally aware overall, and focus primarily on moral issues relating to failure and loss. I conclude the paper by discussing the implications for future research and practice.     

Developing a Novel Hybrid Model for Industrial Environment Analysis: A Study of the Gourmet and Tourism Industry in Taiwan

This study applies fuzzy set theory in attempting to evaluate important attributes of the tourism and gourmet business environment in Taiwan. This business environment is composed of various attributes that are difficult to measure. To overcome these challenges, we integrated the fuzzy Delphi method, the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory method, and the analytic network process to evaluate the business environment. We found that the most significant aspect of the tourism and gourmet business environment is human resources and that the least significant aspect of this industry is market development. The most significant criteria are enhanced industry competitiveness and opportunities to develop the industry.     

Comment on “Using a modified grey relation method for improving airline service quality”

This research note examines claims relating to the originality of using a modified grey relationship combined with TOPSIS (technique for preference by similarity to the ideal solutions) with reference to improved airline service management. It is suggested that the antecedents of the approach date back originally to the early work of Yoon’s 1980 dissertation while the specific combination reported by [Liou et?al., 2011a] and [Liou et?al., 2011b] can be found in work published earlier in 2004.