Analytically comparing disaster resilience across multiple dimensions

It is important to compare the resilience of complex human systems to different types of disasters, in order to assess their inherent vulnerabilities and take appropriate actions to strengthen them. Resilient behavior can be complicated and multi-dimensional, however, and one must be able to characterize the different ways in which that resilience actually exhibits itself in practice. With this in mind, this paper discusses creating a multi-dimensional indicator for the resilience of a complex human system, and it explores an approach for visualizing and analyzing the relationships between each of the individual resilience dimensions. Because decision makers may differ on the relative contribution of the different dimensions to overall resilience, the paper further discusses the issue of weighting the different dimension values and the impacts that such a weighting scheme can have on the relative ranking of different scenarios. We illustrate the ability to characterize the complexity of multi-dimensional resilience by analyzing an empirical data set that measures the relative resilience of the New York metropolitan area to seven different natural disasters between 2010 and 2012.     

Robust scheduling for large scale evacuation planning

It is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to reduce the evacuation time in a disaster situation. The negative impact of large scale disasters can be mitigated by proactive and efficient (time optimal) evacuation planning. The present study aims to develop strategies for public transit-based evacuation for better control and reduced congestion. Mathematical models are formulated for both strategic and operational aspects of evacuation planning to result in efficient, optimal evacuation. The study also presents methods to manage the external environment uncertainties, in particular, evacuation demand uncertainty, by providing robust solutions. To test the efficacy of the models, a case study for a radiological accident in a nuclear plant in India is presented. The results of the case study demonstrate that the models can provide live, efficient and robust results during actual emergencies in acceptable time.     

Assessment of OECD Better Life Index by incorporating public opinion

Well-being has a multidimensional nature as it depends on multifaceted factors such as material conditions and quality of life. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has developed the Better Life Index (BLI) as part of the OECD Better Life initiative to facilitate the better understanding of what drives well-being of people. The BLI is a three-level hierarchical composite indicator that covers several socio-economic aspects. In this paper, considering the entire hierarchical structure of the index, we introduce a bottom-up procedure for the aggregation of the components at each level. We formulate the assessment of BLI as a multiple objective programming (MOP) problem that facilitates the implementation of different concepts to derive different aggregation schemes. We incorporate the data from previous years into the normalization process of the indicators, to take into account the discrepancy on their observed values and smooth their deviations across the years. Also, we consider the public opinion about well-being that is captured from the worldwide responses in the web platform of OECD BLI. We incorporate the public opinion into the assessment models in the form of weight restrictions. In this way, we reduce the effect of compensation that might be imposed by the adopted modelling approach. We apply our methodology to the data of 38 countries (35 OECD and 3 non-OECD economies) for the year 2017. Our findings illustrate that the public opinion in the form of weight restrictions can effectively drive the optimization process and depict the collective preferences to the BLI scores.     

Environmental taxes,reforms and economic growth: an empirical analysis of panel data

This paper explores the relationship between environmentally related taxes and the economic growth rate. The analysis also investigates whether this relationship differs between countries that have implemented environmental tax reforms (ETRs) and those that have not. Using panel data from 31 OECD countries over the period 1994–2013, the paper finds that when we allow environmentally related tax revenues to interact with an initial level of real GDP per capita, the overall revenues of these taxes are negatively associated with the economic growth rate in the short and long term. Furthermore, we show that the higher the initial level of GDP per capita, the more environmentally related tax revenues can promote the economic growth rate. The analysis also reveals that the relationship between environmentally related tax revenues and economic growth varies between countries that have a mechanism to redistribute environmentally related tax revenues and those that do not.     

美国武器装备发展的“委员会+工作组”组织模式

通过解读梳理美国国防部最新的2015年版采办指令、采办指南中关于决策的政策和程序,并以美国在研的重大国防采办项目———第三代全球定位系统为实例,重点考虑关于决策体系的三个方面的问题：谁来决策？谁提供意见？谁提供证据？详细考察美国国防采办项目发展过程中的决策指挥链及决策支持体系,总结美国武器装备发展中决策体系的构成及决策特点。研究发现,美国武器装备发展管理采取了“以里程碑决策官为核心的委员会+工作组”决策体系,该体系主要包括四个要点：一是每个型号项目指定一个里程碑决策官作为此项目的唯一的最终决策人;二是在里程碑决策官领导下组成采办指挥链;三是里程碑决策官在重大里程碑决策点通过委员会的方式听取不同意见;四是里程碑决策官采取集成产品组的工作组方式获得决策支持。并提出对我国的武器装备发展决策的一些启示。     

全流通环境下中国银行业的市值评估——来自国内上市银行的经验数据

银行业的价值评估对于推进金融体制改革存在重要意义,本文从价值评估文献综述入手,建立了一个两步骤的统计学模型,首先通过因子分析得到影响银行价值的主要成分,然后通过多元线性回归检验银行规模、经营业绩和流动性对银行股票价格的影响,实证结果显示:股权分置改革并未如预想的那样对股票价格有明显影响,中国银行业主要盈利来自于存贷款利差收入。     

Encouraging collaboration for the provision of ecosystem services at a landscape scale—Rethinking agri-environmental payments

In this viewpoint we draw on insights from participatory agri-environmental policy making, spatial planning and collaborative approaches to environmental management. We propose steps for planning, design and implementation of agri-environmental payment schemes that will encourage collaboration and co-ordinated actions at a landscape scale to contribute more effectively to the continued provision of ecosystem services.     

Reformulation and assessment of the inventory approach to urban growth boundaries

Based on the theoretical framework, in this article we demonstrate how Decision Network can be used to formulate the inventory approach to urban growth boundaries (UGBs) as an application of the planning tool to a general case. In particular, in the inventory approach expansions of UGBs are considered as decision situations, land consumptions as problems, and order sizes of UGBs as solutions. We compare the time- and event-driven systems of the inventory control problem based on the decision network framework. The former in the framework is considered as making single, independent decisions in time, whereas the latter as making multiple, linked decisions in time. Our numerical example shows that the event-driven system is more effective than the time-driven system in that the former incurs less total cost than the former in the UGBs context. The implication is that making multiple, linked decisions, as manifested by Decision Network, would yield more benefits, such as lowering the total cost, to the planner than making these decisions independently.     

A ‘Legislation-Check’ based on ‘3-D Sustainability’ - Addressing global precautionary land governance

This paper aims to provide a new and practical approach called ‘Legislation-Check’ to identifying shortcomings in national legislation in terms of how well it implements sustainable development, and ways of improving the legislation. National legislation was chosen as it represents a sort of ‘skeleton of society’ and defines the status quo, as well as setting the main environmental, societal and economic directions of the population covered.The approach presented is based on a new concept called ‘3-D Sustainability’, which focuses on the precautionary principle. 3-D Sustainability provides criteria in a flexible hierarchy for solving conflicts of interest between economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In this paper, these criteria and dimensions are applied to various sectors of Austrian national environmental legislation to identify the shortcomings of the legislation and ways of addressing these shortcomings.This paper shows, by way of quantitative data, a significant increase in the use of sustainability related terms in generally applicable legal instruments (both federal and provincial) in Austria since 2003. In qualitative terms the results of the paper further indicate, using national environmental legislation, several hierarchical disorders between different legal acts and opportunities for improving them. Furthermore, inadequacies in the way that the legislation handles sustainable development and a total lack of overall objectives and targets in terms of sustainability are highlighted, which can jeopardise sustainable development.The concept of ‘3-D Sustainability’ has not previously focused on national legislation, despite the practical importance of the legal implementation and enforcement on this geographic level. Hence, this paper contributes, through scientifically-based decision support, to practical pathways for the innovation of institutional, procedural and substantive arrangements in existing legislation.The approach presented in this paper is not restricted to environmental issues, but is applicable to all thematic areas. It is also not geographically limited, but could be implemented in any country and also beyond national borders. Furthermore, the approach can be easily replicated and provides systematically gained results for global governance change towards sustainable development.