货币冲击与中国经济波动——基于DSGE模型的数量分析

基于1993~2008年的季度数据,本文在一个包含Calvo价格粘性的新凯恩斯主义模型中,讨论了中国货币冲击与经济增长的关系。在假定货币政策通过调整货币供给增长实施的前提下,本文根据模型模拟和实际数据的对比以及脉冲响应函数分析得出以下结论:(1)货币并非我国经济波动根源,实际产出对货币供给具有一定反馈作用。(2)通货膨胀的顺周期性和领先增长表明中国经济周期存在总需求拉动的特性。物价波动在中短期主要由货币供应量波动引起。(3)货币政策对实体经济有效但效果有限,货币供给变动对投资的作用效力更大,对消费需求刺激有限。     

产业转移的新经济地理学解释

不同于传统的产业转移理论,新经济地理学在规模报酬和垄断竞争框架下解释了产业转移现象,认为产业转移的基础不必然是第一自然的差异,在完全相同的均质空间下,由于市场接近效应、生活成本效应和市场拥挤效应所构成的集聚力和扩散力的相互作用,产业转移也会发生,并且表现出突发性、自我强化、预期自我实现和价值链环节分离的特性及关联度弱的产业先转移等规律。此外,新经济地理学还运用一般均衡分析方法考察了产业转移的福利效应,包括瓦尔拉斯效应、生产租金和规模区位效应、累积效应以及转移效应,并对影响产业转移的税收优惠竞争、公共基础设施改善和区域补贴等政策措施的效果进行了剖析。     

Signaling quality with new product preannouncements: Vaporware and the role of reference quality

This research develops a signaling game that captures the essential dynamics of new product preannouncements (preannouncement/launch/market feedback). New product preannouncements are preannouncing firms' formal efforts to inform their competitors and customers about the future availability, superior quality and introductory price of their upcoming new products. In a market, two firms compete (entrant preannounces and incumbent responds) across two periods. The entrant has private information about the true quality of a new product (the incumbent and customers do not know it), and this informational asymmetry provides the entrant with a preannouncement dilemma. Should the entrant preannounce and, if the entrant does, should the entrant tell the truth about quality? Preannouncements often get customers who might buy now from a competitor to wait for a higher quality to be available. Therefore, the entrant may have an incentive to bluff the quality of a new product in order to enhance the likelihood of customers' waiting. However, because the quality exaggeration is also likely to increase customers' quality expectations, the entrant may suffer a significant sales penalty if the entrant does not deliver the promised quality. Through the signaling game, this paper derives conditions under which such a bluff does/does not put the preannouncing firm at risk (i.e., this paper derives the separating/pooling equilibria that are the focus of signaling games).     

Why the Generalized Bass Model leads to odd optimal advertising policies

We show that the optimal advertising strategy under the Generalized Bass Model (GBM) involves beginning at an extremely low level (the lower the better) and then increasing spending throughout the planning period. This strategy remains optimal in the presence of decreasing prices that affect both margins and diffusion speed. We provide a simple explanation for why this happens. We further show that the intuitively appealing patterns of continuous decrease or increase-then-decrease (both with an uptick towards the end) identified in earlier research are also possible as optimal dynamic advertising paths under the GBM structure, but only if the advertising at launch is constrained to be higher than a particular threshold, which we identify. The constraint necessary to generate intuitively appealing strategies lowers overall profits. Therefore, the GBM generates advertising policy recommendations that most marketers would deem odd. This casts doubt on the value of the GBM for normative purposes. Other existing diffusion models are preferred when seeking normative guidance on optimal dynamic advertising policies for new products subject to word of mouth.     

英国崛起时期经济板块化和全国性整合

英国是世界上第一个工业化和最早的现代化国家。15世纪以前,英国经济落后且分散,发展水平从东南向西北成梯度式下降。16、17世纪,由于乡村工业等因素推动,英国经济一方面是区域性特征日渐显著;另一方面则有全国性整合趋势,但形成的是伦敦控制的偏倚的全国经济体系。1700年后,随着乡村工业发展和工业革命发生,英格兰西北崛起为工业中心,成为经济增长的强劲一极,与以商贸金融为主的伦敦南北呼应;中间地带则在南北两极所造成的全国性整合中,成为两极间的过渡带和资源供应区。三大板块构架了强劲的英国经济整体。     

基于新公共服务理论的广西邮政改革的对策研究

邮政业作为公共企业,是公共部门的重要组成部分,以新公共服务理论作为理论基础来研究广西邮政的改革问题具有深刻的内在必然性。本文对如何深化邮政政策进行较为全面的研究和探索。     

贵州学前教育公共政策现实问题分析

重要领域公共政策的有效推进对国家和社会的发展具有重要的作用,学前教育公共政策作为政府实行学前教育目标和任务的行动依据和准则,保障学前教育事业的健康发展,并直接影响社会的发展进步。     

中国智能电网战略选择与上海的发展机遇

近两年来全球掀起了建设智能电网的浪潮,本文分析了美欧的智能电网发展战略,通过比较美欧与中国实际情况存在的异同,得出了我国智能电网建设战略重点主要有新能源的接入与使用、输电网建设及工业用户端用户侧智能。此外,本文还分析了在智能电网的建设过程中,上海城市经济发展与产业经济发展的重大机遇,指出了企业和政府应制定相应的战略和政策来抓住该机遇。     

广东发展战略性新兴产业的政策选择

目前,我国明确提出要大力发展战略性新兴产业,各地各部门也在加紧制定相关战略性新兴产业发展规划和政策措施.从目前广东战略性新兴产业政策的制定情况来看,还仅有少量的方向性政策,缺乏整体的发展规划和完整的扶持政策体系.本文将以新兴产业发展规律和强调可操作性等原则出发,提出了广东发展战略性新兴产韭的几大政策设计.     

关于构建滨海新区离岸金融市场的思考

离岸金融市场是金融自由化、国际化的产物,目前已经成为现代金融的重要组成部分,对国际金融产生了举足轻重的影响。文章以天津滨海新区为例,通过比较国际上各离岸金融市场的发展模式,结合目前离岸金融业的现状,分析滨海新区离岸金融发展中存在的问题,提出促进离岸金融业发展的政策建议以及有效监管的手段,使滨海新区的离岸金融市场建立在稳健的基础之上。