Forecast uncertainty and the Taylor rule

In this paper, we derive a modification of a forward-looking Taylor rule by integrating two variables that measure the uncertainty of inflation and GDP growth forecasts into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. We show that certainty-equivalence in New Keynesian models is a consequence of log-linearization and that a second-order Taylor approximation leads to a reaction function that includes the uncertainty of macroeconomic expectations. To test the model empirically, we use the standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as a proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample covers the euro area, the United Kingdom, and the United States for the period 1990Q1–2016Q4. We find that the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have a significantly negative reaction to inflation forecast uncertainty. Our findings also reveal that the Federal Reserve (Bank of England) lowers (raises) its interest rate in response to higher GDP growth forecast uncertainty. We conclude by offering some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers.     

Fast estimation of true bounds on Bermudan option prices under jump-diffusion processes

Fast pricing of American-style options has been a difficult problem since it was first introduced to the financial markets in 1970s, especially when the underlying stocks’ prices follow some jump-diffusion processes. In this paper, we extend the ‘true martingale algorithm’ proposed by Belomestny et al. [Math. Finance, 2009, 19, 53–71] for the pure-diffusion models to the jump-diffusion models, to fast compute true tight upper bounds on the Bermudan option price in a non-nested simulation manner. By exploiting the martingale representation theorem on the optimal dual martingale driven by jump-diffusion processes, we are able to explore the unique structure of the optimal dual martingale and construct an approximation that preserves the martingale property. The resulting upper bound estimator avoids the nested Monte Carlo simulation suffered by the original primal–dual algorithm, therefore significantly improving the computational efficiency. Theoretical analysis is provided to guarantee the quality of the martingale approximation. Numerical experiments are conducted to verify the efficiency of our algorithm.     

Discretionary policy in a monetary union with sovereign debt

This paper examines the interactions between multiple national fiscal policymakers and a single monetary policy maker in response to shocks to government debt in some or all of the countries of a monetary union. We assume that national governments respond to excess debt in an optimal manner, but that they do not have access to a commitment technology. This implies that national fiscal policy gradually reduces debt: the lack of a commitment technology precludes a random walk in steady-state debt, but the need to maintain national competitiveness avoids excessively rapid debt reduction. If the central bank can commit, it adjusts its policies only slightly in response to higher debt, allowing national fiscal policy to undertake most of the adjustment. However, if it cannot commit, then optimal monetary policy involves using interest rates to rapidly reduce debt, with significant welfare costs. We show that in these circumstances the central bank would do better to ignore national fiscal policies in formulating its policy.     

Vehicle currency pricing and its positive welfare consequences under optimal monetary policy

Using a two-country general equilibrium model, this paper analytically derives the possibility of positive welfare consequences of vehicle currency use in invoicing international trades. Such vehicle currency use is prominent in the data. The literature points out welfare loss under optimal monetary policy due to vehicle currency pricing relative to the flexible price equilibrium outcome, modeling only tradable goods. By introducing nontradable goods and their sector-specific productivity shocks, this paper provides a closed-form condition under which one country's welfare is higher under optimal monetary policy if its exports are invoiced with the other country's currency than if invoiced with its own currency, given that the other country's exports are invoiced with the producer's currency. That is, this paper derives a condition under which vehicle currency pricing is preferred by the nonvehicle currency country to producer currency pricing.     

我国企业年金基金投资风险及控制策略研究——基于均值-VAR模型

本文首先对企业年金基金投资情况做了基本介绍,从宏观层面分析我国企业年金投资所面临的风险,以及目前所处的金融市场环境和国家的政策环境。为有效的配置企业年金基金资产,本文从真实的证券交易市场搜集所选投资工具年度样本数据,通过运用均值—VAR模型得到投资于多种资产的最优投资组合分析。最后结合模拟分析结果做出比较分析,并提出建议。     

Harlow下偏矩证券组合优化模型实证研究

风险的度量是投资决策的核心问题。与经典的资产组合理论利用投资品收益率方差度量风险的方法相比,下偏矩方法更为科学。下偏矩方法能够有效反映投资者的心理特征,而且具有较高的资源配置效率,是非常理想的风险度量指标。本文以Harlow下偏矩证券组合优化模型为理论基础,选取我国A股股票作为研究对象,利用MATLAB的非线性规划函数进行求解,快捷高效地建立了有效证券投资组合,验证了利用下偏矩进行风险度量构造有效投资组合的高效性与优越性。     

A monthly econometric model of the transmission of the Great Depression between the principal industrial economies

This article describes and estimates, with monthly data, a model of the economic interactions between the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany over the years 1927–1936. Despite the radically different economic environment, the model shows broadly similar qualitative and dynamic responses to policy instruments and other changes to those of multi-country models estimated on more recent data. The model is simulated to assess the causes of the Great Depression and the particular contribution of European and American policies to the slump. Optimum strategic policy equilibria are then computed. They point to the mismanagement of the US economy as the principal cause of the depression, although French and German policies were also harmful. British policymakers performed rather well, but their economy suffered because of the other countries’ policy errors.     

Dynamic beliefs

This paper studies the temporal path of subjective probability assessments. A reference-dependent agent who experiences utility from anticipation and from changes in this anticipatory emotion makes utility-maximizing assessments about his likelihood of success in a future lottery. Consistent with the empirical evidence, the model predicts that if the lottery is sufficiently valuable, optimism decreases as the payoff date approaches. Intuitively, as time goes by, last-period expected disappointment becomes increasingly important relative to the joy of anticipating a favorable outcome. Applying the model to the optimal timing of productivity bonuses, I find that a decreasing path of beliefs reduces the cost of providing incentives. Thus, optimal bonuses are sizable and are not frequently offered.