An Analysis of the Out-of-Market Gap for DVDs in the U.S.

We examine the out-of-market gap – the time between the end of a film’s theatrical run and its release on DVD – for a sample of U.S. films during 1988-2005. The average gap declined from 58.14 days in 1998 to 27.93 days in 2005; by 2005, 39% of the films were released on DVD prior to leaving the theaters. Probit and hazard models are estimated to explore the factors that influence a distributor’s decision to release a film on DVD before it exits the theaters, and the timing of the release for films that appear on DVD after they leave the theaters.      

定西地区农业生态系统结构优化的对策

本文通过定西地区农业生态系统结构与功能分析，认为：生态系统结构不完善，生产力和经济功能低下。据此从农业可持续发展的角度出发，提出了优化农业生态系统结构和提高其功能的对策。     

The individual dual needs for assimilation and distinctiveness as a segmentation mechanism: developing the concept among students

The present study proposes that the individual's needs for assimilation and distinctiveness serve as a valuable mechanism for consumer segmentation and suggests that augmenting the List of Values with these dual needs enriches the understanding of consumer responses to marketing strategies. Results of a study using a sample of 536 students in an Israeli university identified five segments with significantly different needs for assimilation and differentiation. These segments showed different preferences for marketing communications and distribution channels in their purchasing decision of a cell phone. Mass media and website usage influenced segments marked by high assimilation, while word of mouth influenced segments characterized by high distinctiveness. Augmenting the List of Values with dual needs based segmentation moderated students’ tendencies to favour/dislike marketing communications and distribution channels.     

Escalating penalties for repeat offenders: a note on the role of information

The severity of the sanction for a given offense is often determined by the offense history of the offender. We establish that this policy can be welfare-maximizing if individuals are imperfectly informed about the magnitude of the sanction. Imperfect information distorts individuals’ perception of the expected sanction of the first offense. Once detected, individuals learn about the sanction applicable to their act, making this argument less relevant for consecutive offenses.      

Tax reform and collective family decision-making

Traditional analysis of tax reform treats market behaviour as arising out of individual utility maximisation. In this paper, behaviour is modelled as the Pareto-efficient outcome of a family decision process. Conditions for the existence of a feasible, Pareto-improving tax change are presented and contrasted with those that obtain in the individualistic case. The consequences of treating households as a single individual are also discussed.     

The role of externalities and information aggregation in market collapse

We examine the role that belief, network externality, and information aggregation play in inefficient market collapses. After receiving consecutive negative shocks, some ex-ante identical Bayesian agents will be discouraged about the unknown state of the market they invest; therefore, they will stop investing. This decision will have two effects: first, it will cause agents to aggregate information through social/observational learning; second, it will decrease the network externality effect. We show that there might be an inefficient market collapse if the externality effect diminishes too much, and the cost of re-entry to the market is too high. We also analyze the effects of strategic delay and experimentation on the exit decision of the agents. I especially thank Thomas D. Jeitschko, Matthew Mitchell, B. Ravikumar Ted Temzelides. I also thank anonymous referees, an associate editor, John Conlon, Larry Samuelson, Troy Tassier, Stephen Williamson, and seminar participants of the University of Saskatchewan, Georgia Tech, Concordia University, University of Manitoba, Iowa Alumni Workshop, Midwest Economic Theory Conferences held at Indiana Bloomington, and Notre Dame, and 1st International Conference on Business, Management and Economics organized by Yasar University.     

Local asymptotic normality for randomly censored models with applications to rank tests

For randomly right censored models we study the asymptotic behaviour of linear (rank) statistics under local alternatives. The results can be used to evaluate the asymptotic power of the corresponding tests. For instance we treat the question how to choose the best scores in order to derive asymptotically optimal (rank) tests under certain alternatives.     

A note on Deaton's theorem on the undesirability of nonuniform excise taxation

The paper provides an extension and a new proof of Deaton's theorem on the undesirability of nonuniform excise taxation when income taxes are affine and preferences over consumption goods are separable from labour–leisure choices, homothetic, and identical across agents.     

Designing an optimal contest

The paper brings a mechanism design perspective to the study of contests. We consider the problem of selecting a contest success function when the contest designer may also value the prize. We show that any equilibrium outcome that can be achieved by a concave increasing contest success function can be replicated by a linear contest success function. An expected utility maximizing designer should employ a linear homogeneous contest success function. We explicitly derive the optimal contest for a risk-neutral designer and present comparative statics results. Tullock's contest is optimal only when the designer's valuation for the prize is low.     

Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Regime Switches

A model of rational mortgage refinancing is developed where the drift and volatility of interest rate process switch between two regimes. Because of the possibility of a regime shift, the optimal refinancing policy is characterized by the different threshold of interest differential for each regime. Numerical simulation demonstrates that the optimal refinancing threshold in each regime can be smaller or larger than the threshold under single-regime models. Finally, we evaluate the predictions of the model, based on the estimated parameters for a two-regime model to capture the evolution of the mortgage rates in the US. Our model can produce both late and early refinancing, which is consistent with the observed refinancing behavior. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Sumitomo Trust and Banking Co., Ltd.