Three New Real Estate Price Indices for Geneva,Switzerland

This paper develops constant-quality price indices for three categories of real estate-apartment buildings, vacant land, and condominiums—for the city of Geneva, Switzerland. We use both the hedonic and repeat sales models to estimate the price level and, in turn, the rate of price change. The general pattern of each series suggests that real estate prices in Geneva were fairly stable throughout the 1970s, increased sharply during the 1980s, but gave back some of these gains in the early 1990s. Interestingly, the sharp rise in prices in the second half of the 1980s is very similar to that found in some regions of the United States. We also consider the problem, implicit in the repeat sales method, of revisions in previously estimated price indices as additional data become available in later years.     

Subordinated Market Index Models: A Comparison

The paper compares various processes subordinated to the Wiener process tomodel the leptokurtic characteristics of index returns. Empirical analysisis performed on the Dow Jones and Nikkei 225 indexes. A good model to capturethe typical tail behaviour of these indexes turns out to be a long Studentt distributed one.     

绿色GDP核算研究的误区及其澄清

我国在绿色GDP核算研究中存在着将实际环保费用作为“重复计算因素”从现行GDP中扣除的误区。无论从核算技术的角度上,还是从经济模型的推导上,都证明在绿色GDP核算中不应扣除实际的环保费用,而应扣除的是“潜在的”环保费用。     

我国证券投资基金投资风格实证研究

本文利用我国公开披露的证券投资基金收益率数据,对关于投资风格分析的夏普模型在我国的适用性进行验证分析,得出该模型对我国证券投资基金进行投资风格分析是有效的,是观察、判断管理人投资风格及其变化的一个良好工具的结论,并概括出我国证券投资基金的投资风格特点。     

中国金融市场分割问题探源

银行的不良贷款问题得到了学术界的广泛关注,而金融体系中另一个潜在的缺陷,资本的低效率使用问题却没有引起足够的重视。金融理论告诉我们分割的金融市场是阻碍资本自由流动的原因, 本文的目的在于对我国金融市场分割的原因进行探讨。     

Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Prices?

We examine the effect of forward sale (pre-sale) activities on the volatility of spot prices in the real estate market. The abundance of pre-sales data and major changes in regulatory control on the pre-sale market during the 90's in Hong Kong allow us to undertake empirical tests using Hong Kong's real estate data. Our results show that the volatility of spot prices increased significantly after forward sales were severely dampened by regulatory control measures introduced in 1994, but decreased again when the measures were partly relaxed in 1998. The results contribute to the long lasting debate on whether the introduction of a futures market reduces the volatility of spot prices. Previous studies were mainly conducted in markets with low transaction costs, notably financial markets. By utilizing the unique regulatory changes in the pre-sale market of Hong Kong, we are able to conduct an experiment on the conditional volatility of spot prices in a high information-cost environment, thereby shedding light on the important role of forward housing contracts in providing price expectation information for spot trading.     

我国商业银行操作风险度量模型的选择

操作风险涉及银行经营活动的所有领域、各个环节和所有人员，不同银行、不同业务、不同环节的操作风险特征都不相同。操作风险度量是对操作风险进行经济资本配置的基础，目前还没有普遍适用的操作风险度量方法，现有的一些主流模型没有充分考虑内部控制对操作风险的影响和操作风险的因果性特征。因此，操作风险度量模型应考虑到其特征，既要综合主观和客观两方面的因素，也要可以灵活地进行动态调整。考虑到我国商业银行操作风险管理的实际，在操作风险度量模型的选择上，可用内部控制评价结果调整的基本指标法和标准法作为自上而下的度量模型，用贝叶斯网络技术作为自下而上的度量模型。     

我国股份制商业银行薪酬激励有效性研究

我国股份制商业银行薪酬激励存在一些不足，原因在于薪酬激励的自身因素和薪酬环境因素两方面。自身因素主要包括忽视长期行为激励、缺乏同业竞争优势、轻视普通员工激励；环境因素主要有银行治理结构不完善、市场非充分有效、法规制度不健全等。本文通过对商业银行高管人员及普通员工的薪酬与业绩相关性进行实证检验，认为我国商业银行薪酬激励基本上是有效的，但是其有效性并不十分理想。据此，本文提出了提升我国商业银行薪酬激励有效性的具体建议：从微观层面看，优化薪酬激励机制：从中观层面看，强化商业银行治理结构；从宏观层面看，改善外部相关环境。     

商业银行信用风险评估的生存分析模型及实证研究

企业发生财务危机，不能归还到期贷款是商业银行信贷资产的主要风险来源，商业银行如何构建恰当的信用风险评估模型来预测企业的财务危机，从而避免这类信用风险的出现就显得尤为重要。本文以我国上市公司为研究对象，结合杜邦分析法建立了基于生存分析的信用风险评估模型，模型对于随机选取的预测样本，其提前1年、2年和3年的预测准确率分别达到86％、72％和68％。通过与Ahman模型、Ohlson模型预测结果的比较和鲁棒性检验的结果发现，该模型同时具有可以使用时间序列、无需样本配对、中远期预测能力强和高鲁棒性的特点．这些特点特别对于商业银行中长期信贷风险管理具有较高的应用价值．     

我国基金选股选时能力实证分析

本文运用西方基金绩效评价中较为常见的选股选时能力模型及其FF3改进模型对我国证券投资基金进行实证研究,在处理过程中考虑了不同取样频率和不同样本区间的影响.研究结果表明:(1)我国基金只存在很小程度的选股能力,而基本不存在选时能力,更没有基金同时具有选时能力和选股能力;(2)多因素改进模型与原模型相比显著提高了解释能力,说明在可能的情况下应尽可能使用多因素模型;(3)加快取样频率后基金表现出更强一些的选股能力,但在各年度内基金的选股能力有所差异.