野田内阁面临经济难题与经济政策探析

东日本大地震以后,日本经济特别是产业经济出现了出人预料的迅速恢复,但是刚刚进入复苏通道的日本经济仍然面临各种难题,灾后重建资金筹措、生产设施与生活设施的恢复、国土开发整治、核事故处理、长期电力不足风险、国家长期能源战略调整、财政重建、日元急剧升值,特别是美国、欧洲主权债务危机可能引起的世界经济低迷,使日本经济的不确定性增强。在内外交困之际,新上台的野田内阁出台了若干经济政策,但却将政策重心置于参与TPP谈判、提高消费税等方面,与亟待解决的经济难题未免有些乖戾,其政策效果不容乐观。     

Testing the orthodoxies of land degradation policy in Swaziland

This paper explores Swaziland's National Action Programme (NAP) to combat desertification; the country's main strategy for implementing the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). It considers whether this policy tackles real problems supported by micro-level scientific evidence and local experiences, or whether it further reinforces popular orthodoxies about land degradation. Data from one case study chiefdom in Swaziland are used to test two key orthodoxies identified within the country's NAP: (1) the presentation of degradation as a neo-Malthusian problem resulting from population pressure and (2) the assumption that the poor are responsible for degradation of their environment, in particular, the over-use of forest areas and the degradation of soils. It is found that diverse rural livelihoods inherently deliver patches of degradation at the micro-level but it is not necessarily population pressure or poor people that cause the degradation. Households with varying assets simultaneously degrade and conserve different parts of the land resource through pursuing different livelihood activities. The data indicate that while the NAP focuses on mythical problems grounded in the orthodoxies, policy attention is directed away from the more serious land degradation issues affecting rural livelihoods. The findings of this study provide a more nuanced understanding of the gaps between land degradation policy, local conservation practice and environmental and livelihood outcomes, and suggest that policymakers need to evaluate more critically the outdated and simplistic degradation orthodoxies on which much current policy is based. Stronger links need to be made between scientific and policymaking communities, while more credence should be given to land users’ own knowledges, perspectives, concepts and categories surrounding issues of soil conservation and degradation. It is suggested that steps need to be taken towards the development of broadly applicable benchmarks and indicators that bring together local and scientific knowledges across levels. Without this, popularised orthodoxies will continue to provide a basis for inappropriate land policy.     

内生货币供给理论及其货币政策述评

本文对内生货币供给理论及其政策主张进行了全面的回顾与分析，并着重介绍了当代新凯恩斯主义的内生货币供给理论和货币政策。在文章最后，还提出了内生货币理论对我国通货紧缩下的宏观经济可能会有的启示。     

The effects of EU agricultural policy changes on farmers' risk attitudes

This analysis utilises a model of production under risk estimatedon Finnish farm-level data to measure farmers' risk attitudesin a changing policy environment. We find evidence of heterogeneousrisk preferences among farmers, as well as notable changes overtime in farmers' degree of risk aversion. This result is dueto the increase in the non-random part of farm income generatedby the policy change after Finland's European Union accession.The analysis confirms the assertion that agricultural policiesthat are decoupled from production do affect input use and cropmix through their effect on farmers' risk attitudes.     

澳大利亚反倾销政策及其特点探析

澳大利亚是世界上第二个制定反倾销政策的国家,其反倾销政策具有自身的特点。同时,在反倾销实践中,澳大利亚被称为全球四大传统反倾销用户之一,而中国则成为澳大利亚实施反倾销政策的首要目标国。本文从澳大利亚的反倾销管理体制出发,分析了澳大利亚反倾销政策的主要内容,进而考察了澳大利亚反倾销政策及其实践的特点。     

技术引进与外资利用：促进科技产业发展的战略与政策

本文首先通过对我国外资利用及国内外经济技术竞争的分析．作出基本的判断，在对国内外结构性调整及政策性因素的影响进行讨论后，从宏观发展视角．对我国利用外资中引进技术存在的体制、政策等作出分析；最后，根据跨国企业直接投资将成为未来我国外资主要构成的预期．提出着眼于长远发展利益的我国引进技术和利用外资的战略与政策。     

The dilemma of exchange rate arrangements in East Asia

This paper analyzes exchange rate flexibility in East Asia and explores what has changed since the Asian financial crisis. Our focus is not on the choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime in East Asia, but rather on exchange rate flexibility and management in the region. We find that exchange rate management in East Asia differs based on the country and the time period. We identify major concerns about current exchange rate arrangements in East Asia, including asymmetric responses to external shocks, competitive devaluation, and the dilemma of choosing between asset dollarization and liability dollarization. The paper concludes with some policy implications for an exchange rate arrangement in East Asia.     

我国开放条件下的货币政策操作规则

本文利用我国1994～2006年季度数据,分别对开放经济条件下的Taylor规则和McCal-lum规则进行了实证检验。结果表明,我国货币政策操作一直遵从McCallum规则,Tay-lor规则不适合我国国情。这意味着,如果经济结构不发生大的变化,就可以根据历史数据回归得到的McCallum规则的各种参数和通胀缺口、实际汇率、货币乘数、货币流通速度等变量的预期变化,测算出合理的基础货币增长率,这将为调控基础货币供给提供重要参照。     

日本资产价格泡沫发生机制研究

资金和投资意愿是产生资产价格泡沫的充分必要条件。20世纪80年代后期,滞后的金融体制改革、歪曲的税制、日美贸易摩擦、削减赤字的财政再建计划、良好的经济状况和国家竞争力的整体上升使日本同时具备了资产价格泡沫发生的两个条件。借鉴日本的经验,通过财政、税收政策扩大市场上可投资资产的供给,同时降低预期的投资收益是防止和缓解我国发生资产价格泡沫的主要手段。     

奎德政策分析理论述评

本文从政策分析及其必要性、政策分析的要素、政策分析的过程以及政策分析与政治因素的关系等诸方面对美国著名政策分析专家奎德的政策分析理论进行了系统的归纳和阐释，最后并对其理论作了简要的评价。