Political patronage and analysts’ forecast precision

We test whether the channel by which the government plays the role of political patron to selected firms influences analysts’ forecast precision in Malaysia. Correcting for analysts’ self-selection bias, we find a negative relation between analysts’ forecast errors and the social dimension of political patronage, as proxied by government-controlled institutional ownership. The reverse is found for the economic dimension of political patronage, as proxied by the percentage shareholding of government-linked corporations. We find no evidence that the personal dimension of political patronage influences analysts’ forecast precision.     

The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets

Within the developed world, recent Australian political history is uniquely turbulent. This situation invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and the financial markets. This paper explores the relationship between uncertainty in Australian federal election polling and resulting financial market uncertainty. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing (decreasing) levels of uncertainty around the election result induce higher (lower) levels of uncertainty in financial markets. The effect is more pronounced as polling day approaches. Industry‐level analysis suggests that the base materials sector is most significantly affected by election uncertainty in Australia.     

马克思的科学研究方法论探赜——基于对《〈政治经济学批判〉序言》的文本解读

为更好地揭批资本主义经济发展的谲秘,探求政治经济学发展的秘妙,马克思于1858年写作完成《政治经济学批判(第一分册)》,并在其出版时为之写作《序言》。在《序言》中,马克思对唯物史观原理作出真释,并抉示出自身研究政治经济学的动因与过程。通过对《序言》内容的探赜发现,其中包含着马克思从事科学研究的诸多方面内容,如研究动因的生成、研究基础的具备、研究任务的确立、研究态度的秉承、研究成果的运用等,其共同构成马克思科学研究的方法论。当前,对其条分缕析,并引以为鉴,将使我们在科学研究过程中获益匪浅。     

Natural resource dependence, non-tradables, and economic growth

I argue that the commonly used nominal measure of natural resource dependence – the share of exports of primary products in GNP – understates in growth regressions the negative link between natural resource dependence and per capita GDP growth. I show that using a purchasing power parity adjusted measure yields an economically much larger negative relationship between per capita GDP growth and natural resource dependence than what has been suggested by the nominal measure. Consistent with the rent-seeking literature, I show that the resource curse is a symptom of societies characterized by high levels of corruption and sluggish checks and balances on political decision-making.     

论网络条件下的高校思想政治理论课交往互动教学

思想政治理论课教学改革的目的是为了更好地育人;教师要研究和把握网络条件下大学生交往方式的变化,创新教学方法,从而不断增强教学效果。     

中日传统文化对政治现代化的影响

对任何国家来讲,政治现代化既是现代化运动的一个重要方面,也是现代化运动的一个重要支撑,而传统文化对政治现代化有着不可低估的影响。传统文化是民族历史的结晶,蕴涵了本民族思维方式、价值观念、行为准则等因素,一方面具有强烈的历史性、遗传性,另一方面又具有鲜活的现实性、变异性。因此,传统文化为政治现代化提供历史的根据和现实的基础。本文将就中日两国不同的传统文化对各自政治现代化的影响进行浅析,以求对中国政治现代化道路做有益的探索。     

Political capitalism: The interaction between income inequality,economic freedom and democracy

We study the relationship between income inequality and economic freedom for a panel of 100 countries for the 1971–2010 period. Using a panel Granger non-causality approach, we reject the null hypothesis of Granger non-causality running from income inequality to economic freedom, but not vice versa. From a series of dynamic panel estimations we show that the effect of income inequality on economic freedom is negative and robust to the inclusion of additional controls. In particular, inequality is negatively associated with those components of economic freedom related to international trade, domestic market regulation as well as the rule of law and property rights protection. We argue that the negative effect of inequality on economic freedom is due to the economic elite converting its economic power into de facto political power to defend its economic interests; these interests run counter to economic freedom, discouraging innovation and competition as well as protecting the elite's rents. Finally, we show that economic freedom decreases with income inequality even in democratic countries, suggesting that democratic institutions do not prevent economic freedom from eroding. We argue that the latter finding corresponds to a system of political capitalism or captured democracy, where a powerful economic elite can nevertheless exercise de facto political power by cooperating with politicians and other decision-makers for their mutual benefit.     

治理理论与政治稳定

治理理论是一种先进的公共管理理论,它可以通过吸纳多元主体、扩大参与路径消解新旧政治文化冲突等方式有效地维护政治稳定。但这必须建立在一系列的前提条件之下,如：发达的公民社会、公众的共识和认同、完善的法治等,而这恰恰是现代中国所缺乏的。为此,我们必须从拓宽参与路径、提高公民意识、完善法治等几方面着手,推进治理,有效地维护政治稳定。     

《公民权利和政治权利公约》与我国的人权保障

中国政府于1998年10月签署《公民权利和政治权利公约》,但至今未报经全国人大批准。主要原因在于我国对人权保障的理解及宪法中的相关规定与该《公约》存在重大差别：对人权来源的认识和规定不同;对＂人民自决权＂的理解存在差异;关于＂平等权＂＂迁徙和选择住所的自由＂＂无罪推定原则＂＂人人有权享受思想、良心和宗教自由＂＂结社的自由＂等方面的规定不同。我国应该加强人权理论研究和宣传教育的力度;完善我国宪法法律关于人权保障的相关制度和机制,逐步推动我国人权保障事业的发展。     

Politically connected directors and firm value: Evidence from forced resignations in China

The Central Committee of the Communist Party in China issued the No. 18 Document on Oct 30, 2013 to ban government officials from taking any positions in Chinese firms. Using this decision as a unique natural experiment, we examine the causal relation between political connections and firm valuation. We find that the value of firms with politically connected directors drops significantly upon the announcements of the new rule and the resulting director resignations. Furthermore, the decline in valuation is more pronounced when a firm is in a regulated industry, and when a departing director is of vital importance for building and maintaining political connections. Moreover, non-state-owned enterprises suffer more loss of value than their state-owned peers following the resignations of politically-connected directors. Finally, firms exhibit insignificant value loss when their departing directors are of less political importance in allocating resources. These results suggest that hiring politically connected directors has a positive effect on firm valuation in China.