Public expenditures and the unemployment rate in the American states: panel evidence

We reexamine the Unemployment Rate (UR) – government expenditure nexus in a panel of 50 State and Local Governments (SLGs) over the period 1977–2006 to provide new pre-recession empirical evidence that helps put the expectations on the effects of the federal relief to SLGs in a broader context. We found that: (1) per capita real public spending (total and capital, assistance and subsidies, wages and salaries, and social insurance categories) was part of a cointegrating relationship with UR and real per capita state personal income. (2) With the exception of social insurance, other spending variables, when statistically significant, actually had a depressing effect on UR. The magnitude of this effect, however, was generally small. UR was most sensitive to increases in wages and salaries. (3) Long-term causality analysis based on panel error-correction coefficients provided consistent evidence of a causal effect from spending to UR, but less consistent evidence of such effect in the opposite direction. Social insurance, however, drove UR. (4) The size of the error-correction coefficients suggested a slow response of UR to deviations from the cointegrating relationship. (5) The marginal effect of spending on UR increased with the amount of the federal grants received. Our results suggest that public spending may not serve as a quick fix in relation to UR. They also seem to favour allocation of the federal funds to wage and salaries and assistance and subsidies, but not to capital and social insurance expenditures to lower UR.     

Trend and cyclical decoupling: new estimates based on spectral causality tests and wavelet correlations

The issue of decoupling of emerging market economies (EMEs) (especially in the Asian region) from the developments in advanced economies has become a subject of lively debate in recent years. Basically, decoupling seems to comprise three sub-hypotheses: (i) growth spillovers from advanced countries to EMEs decreasing progressively in importance, (ii) business cycles in EMEs becoming less synchronized with those of the advanced world and (iii) strengthening of growth spillovers and cyclical synchronization among the EMEs as a group. The received literature fails to distinguish adequately between the trend and cyclical aspects of the decoupling relationship. We resort to two frequency domain methods (nonstationary spectral causality testing and wavelet correlations), which seem to offer a neat separation of trend and cyclical decoupling. Based on a sample of seven EMEs from the Asian region (including the two large EMEs – China and India), we uncover strong evidence favouring both trend and cyclical decoupling.     

Preferential trade agreements and manufactured goods exports: does it matter whom you PTA with?

This article explores two questions. First, do preferential trade agreements (PTAs) affect manufactured goods exports of developing countries? Second, does it matter for developing countries whom they sign the PTAs with? We find that the answer to both questions is yes. Using bilateral manufactured goods exports data from 28 developing countries during 1978–2005; we find that South–South PTAs have a significantly positive effect on manufactured goods exports. In contrast, no such effect is detected in the case of South–North PTAs. We confirmed the robustness of these findings to estimation methodology, sample selection, time period, zero trade flows and multilateral trade resistance.     

The effects of monetary policy in a small open economy: the case of Portugal

In this article, I analyse the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy on the Portuguese economy. I show that a positive interest rate shock leads to: (i) a contraction of real GDP and a substantial increase of the unemployment rate; (ii) a quick fall in the commodity price and a gradual decrease of the price level and (iii) a downward correction of the stock price index. It also produces a ‘short-lived liquidity effect’ and helps explain the negative comovement between bonds and stocks. In addition, I find evidence suggesting the existence of a money demand function characterized by small output and interest rate elasticities. By its turn, the central bank’s policy rule follows closely the dynamics of the money markets. Finally, both the real GDP and the price level in Portugal would have been higher during almost the entire sample period if there were no monetary policy surprises.     

Firm credit in the euro area: a tale of three crises

Using survey data from 2009 to 2011, we analyse the effects of the recent euro area economic, financial and private debt crisis on the supply of and demand for bank finance for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). At the country level, we identify three distinct aspects of the recent crisis in the euro area affecting firm credit through different channels. Controlling for country fixed effects, the impact of a weak real economy on firm credit operates both by reducing firms’ demand for bank financing and by lenders increasing loan rejections and tightening terms and conditions on credit allocated. On the other hand, financial conditions have no significant effect on demand, but they do affect credit supply as we find that financial tensions worsen the chances of obtaining credit and its terms and conditions. We interpret this as evidence of a bank balance sheet channel negatively impacting credit provision. We find that private sector indebtedness has important effects on SMEs’ credit access and its terms and conditions.     

Did financial deregulation help consumers? Access to market-yield instruments

The maturity effect (ME) of futures prices postulated by Samuelson (1965) is re-examined using three nonparametric tests. The consistent entropy asymmetry test by Racine and Maasoumi (2007) indicates that variance is an appropriate risk or uncertainty measure for ME, and value-at-risk and expected shortfall are also adopted. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov dominance test and Wilcoxon rank sum and signed rank test are employed to rank the estimates of the three risk measures under a moving-window framework. The testing outcomes are contingent on futures type, testing method and risk measures. The testing outcomes show mild support for ME.     

Efficiency and productivity of the food and beverage listed firms in the pre-recession and recessionary periods in Greece

This study uses data envelopment analysis to examine the liquidity and sales efficiency of the Food and Beverage listed firms in Athens Exchange in the period 2006–2012. The liquidity efficiency of the firms is higher than the sales efficiency but the results indicate that there are not statistical significant differences in the rankings estimated by the two models in each period. The Malmquist Productivity Index reveals that over the period of the study, firms have experienced an annual average increase in productivity of 0.5% (a slight progress). On examining the components of this productivity change, it becomes evident that firms have experienced an annual average of 2% increase in technology combined with a decrease in technical efficiency of –1.5%. The results indicate that 52.4% of the firms experienced productivity gains in the examined period, and this was mainly the result of technological gain rather than efficiency improvement. More than 90% of the firms in the sample shift the efficiency frontier and only 33.3% of the firms are catching up, improving their productivity by reducing inefficiency. Moreover, the empirical study reveals that the overall technical inefficiencies of the firms are primarily caused by pure technical inefficiencies rather than scale inefficiencies.     

The returns to general experience,job and occupational tenure: a study using Australian panel data

This article uses Australian panel data for the years 2001–2009 to estimate returns to general experience, job and occupational tenure. We pay particular attention to issues of unobserved heterogeneity bias in our estimations. We find that both general experience and occupational tenure have statistically and numerically significant effects on wage outcomes, even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. Job tenure on the other hand only seems to matter in OLS regressions that do not control for heterogeneity biases. Once these biases are controlled for, only a modest effect from job tenure remains. The inclusion of occupational tenure in the estimating equation tends to negate even this modest job tenure effect. The only exception to this is for workers in large organizations. For these workers a small but statistically significant effect from job tenure remains, even once we have controlled for heterogeneity and included occupational tenure in the estimating equation. The results reported in this article have implications for the various theories of the labour market that predict upward-sloping wage-job-tenure profiles.     

An assessment of trends in technology use,innovative work practices and employees’ attitudes in Europe

Several studies of innovative work practices show a positive link with firm performance and employees’ task involvement, organizational commitment and citizenship behaviours. One of the recent changes faced by firms is the introduction of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). Although several empirical studies analyse the links between ICT use, innovative work practices and firm performance, employee-level analyses are scarce. Using data from the European Working Condition Survey (EWCS), this article investigates the relationships between use of the Internet and computers and positive attitudes among employees (social support, job satisfaction, extra effort) in the European context. Our empirical results are based on data for more than 9500 employees from 16 European countries in 2005, and more than 14 000 in 2010. Among the different effects of ICT use, based on the results for the 2005, 2010 and the pooled 2005–2010 sample, and in a within-cohorts change analysis, we find that Internet use is positively related to employees’ job satisfaction and extra effort. We find that computer use is not related to employees’ behaviours. We find also that most of the innovative work practices considered are positively related to employees’ positive attitudes.     

Renewable and nonrenewable energy production and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: a hidden cointegration analysis

The objective of this article is to investigate the hypothesis of asymmetric effects between economic growth and renewable and nonrenewable energy production. To this end, both the linear cointegration and the hidden cointegration methodology are employed, with the latter allowing a straightforward delimitation of the data in an economically sensible way. We test for the presence of hidden cointegration across 12 sub-Saharan African countries spanning the period 1971–2011. The empirical results confirm the growth hypothesis for a subset of countries, suggesting that their growth could be adversely affected by conservation policies, while for a second subgroup of countries they confirm the conservation hypothesis, indicating that conservation policies could enhance the growth process in these countries. The differentiation of the results could be captured entirely by the linear approach, indicating that the lack of cointegration between renewable energy production and economic growth found in previous studies may be due to failures to properly delimit the nonlinearity property in the data.