物流系统规划-仿真集成化技术研究

通过对物流系统规划与仿真模型的分析，归纳出系统规划模型与系统仿真模型的共有属性和关系，采用集成化的技术，建立集成化规划一仿真系统模型，并通过Solidworks和Flexsim研究实现其集成化，并在相关课题中获得成功应用，突破了现有软件在规划与仿真之间数据共享的壁垒。     

军用车辆器材调拨业务流程重组模型研究

基于信息流分析,论述了军用车辆器材调拨系统中信息流程和业务流程的重组和优化应用,采用对象、岗位、任务三维视图的建模方法描述核心业务流程,提高了系统的可读性和可推广性。     

基于Petri网的物流分拣系统的建模与仿真

阐述了面向对象着色Petri网理论，并将它应用于物流分拣系统的建模，在分析该系统的基础上，建立了系统的面向对象着色Petri网模型，并借助AutoMod仿真软件对分拣系统进行了3D仿真。     

Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

生育政策的地区差异与儿童营养过剩关系研究

近年来,中国的肥胖儿童不断增多。由于该现象发生在“独生子女”政策开始实施以后,后者被认为是前者之因。然而,实证研究的缺乏使生育政策与儿童营养过剩之间的关系尚不明确。使用“中国健康和营养调查”数据,探讨政策与儿童(0-12岁)营养过剩之间的关系。多层模型和纵向分析结果显示,其一,儿童营养过剩的比例在90年代持续攀升,但增长速度较慢。其二,虽然生活在一孩生育政策地区的儿童营养过剩的比例高于其它地区儿童,独生子女营养过剩的比例超过非独生子女,但在其它条件同等的情况下,生育政策的地区差异和姊妹结构与儿童营养过剩概率无显著关联。分析结果并不支持“独生子女政策造成了儿童肥胖”的公共观点。影响儿童营养过剩的主要因素包括父母的体重、母亲的教育、社区发展水平和省份。     

经济系统中的数学建模

论述了经济系统中数学模型的建立问题,并对数学建模过程进行了理论分析。     

The Dynamics of Location in Home Price

It is well established that house prices are dynamic. It is also axiomatic that location influences such selling prices, motivating our objective of incorporating spatial information in explaining the evolution of house prices over time. In this paper, we propose a rich class of spatio-temporal models under which each property is point referenced and its associated selling price modeled through a collection of temporally indexed spatial processes. Such modeling includes and extends all house price index models currently in the literature, and furthermore permits distinction between the effects of time and location. We study single family residential sales in two distinct submarkets of a metropolitan area and further categorize the data into single- and multiple-transaction observations. We find the spatial component is very important in explaining house price. Moreover, the relative homogeneity of homes within the submarket and the frequency with which homes sell affects the pattern of variation across space and time. Differences between single and repeat sale data are evident. The methodology is applicable to more general capital asset pricing when location is anticipated to be influential.     

Partial moment volatility indices

Forward‐looking partial moment volatility indices are developed using state‐pricing, called the bear index (BEX) and bull index (BUX). Using S&P 500 index (SPX) option prices, we find that BEX and BUX provide superior forecasts for the lower and upper partial moments of future market realised volatility, respectively. We examine the relation between SPX returns and changes in BEX and BUX at the daily level. Results are consistent with the volatility feedback hypothesis. Further, we show that BEX may be more suitable as the ‘investor fear gauge’ than VIX.     

How supply chain architecture and product architecture impact firm performance: An empirical examination

In order to enhance performance, manufacturing firms are building various capabilities and utilizing supply chain networks that are geographically dispersed around the globe. This study examines how decisions related to supply chain architecture and product architecture influence organizational competitiveness. Building on the co-specialization perspective, we evaluate the performance implications of product modularity and supply chain agility. While, product modularity constitutes a product configuration related to sourcing and assembling of products, supply chain agility is a supply chain configuration related to velocity (sensing, comprehending, and responding) and visibility (supplier network, internal operations, and external environment). Both the product and supply chain architectural decisions can impact performance, individually and in conjunction with each other. We empirically test the hypothesized relationships using data collected from 103 manufacturing firms. Results show that supply chain agility and product modularity directly enhance responsiveness and enable organizations to reduce cost. Furthermore, supply chain agility partially mediates the relationship between product modularity and both responsiveness and cost reduction. We elaborate on the key contributions of this study for both research and practice, discuss limitations, and also offer various avenues for further research.     

Information congruity in scarcity appeal: A structural equation modeling study of time-limited promotions

Although market scarcity such as time restriction is widely used in retail advertisements, its impact on product message processing and product evaluation is still subject to controversy. In this study, analyses through structural equation modeling indicated that (i) scarcity had no impact on product message processing, (ii) scarcity had a direct impact on product evaluation as a heuristic cue when the value inferred from scarcity was congruous with the worth derived from product message, and (iii) scarcity lost its impact on product evaluation when the value inferred from scarcity was incongruous with the worth derived from product message, and the incongruity prompted scrutiny of product message, resulting in a mediated impact of product message on product evaluation through product message processing. In conclusion, the results supported an information congruity theory of market scarcity.