TFP growth in Chinese cities: The role of factor-intensity and industrial agglomeration

This article estimates agglomeration effects via calculating EG (Elilsion & Glaeser) and TFP growth (Total Factor Production) by considering the undesired output of the industrial enterprise database and the entropy weight method. Using panel data of 207 county-level cities in China and 28 two-digit manufacturing industries from 2003 to 2013 based on SIC codes, this paper analyzes the relationship between agglomeration and TFP growth through the smooth transition model under different regions and factor-intensity. The results are as follows. (1) A negative relationship appears in manufacturing productivity. The agglomeration effect changes to the crowded effect. Environmental pollution is also generated by transportation and inadequate pollution treatment technology. (2) The excessive agglomeration phenomenon of developed areas (eastern region) is less than the less developed areas (central and western regions). (3) Resource-intensity industries present two thresholds that indicate complex regional features. For various intensive industries in different regions, the relationship between GML and agglomeration is different. High agglomeration does not always promote TFP growth. (4) At different levels of urban industrial agglomeration, the influences of efficiency change and technical change on GML are different. Overall, moderate agglomeration in all regions helps promote economic development.     

Simulated economic impacts in applied trade modelling: A comparison of tariff aggregation approaches

This paper assesses the performance of two recently developed tariff aggregators in reducing tariff aggregation bias by analysing Swiss beef market liberalisation scenarios. Specific relevant sources of bias are addressed: substitution effects on import demand, Tariff Rate Quotas and overprotection in tariffs. The aggregators are linked to a global large-scale partial equilibrium model and benchmarked against a standard aggregator. The choice of the aggregation method shows considerable effects on simulated economic impacts, specifically if the dispersion in tariffs or tariff cuts is large. A large bias is revealed in simulated gains from trade liberalisation using the standard aggregator. The impacts on traded quantities are found to be overestimated, while price and welfare effects can be higher or lower by switching to alternative aggregation methods. By reducing aggregation bias and depicting negotiated tariff schedules more directly, the proposed aggregators enhance the contribution of trade modelling to evidence-based policy making.     

Quantile spillovers and dependence between Bitcoin,equities and strategic commodities

This paper has two aims. We first examine the dynamic spillovers between Bitcoin and 12 developed equities, gold, and crude oil for different market conditions using a Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with daily spot prices. Our econometric approach enables us to capture the left and right tails as well as the shoulders of the return distribution corresponding to volatility spillovers under the bear, normal, and bull market states among these financial assets. We quantify and trace the dependence and directional predictability from Bitcoin to other assets using the sample cross-quantilogram. Our key findings offer convincing evidence of time variation in the level of volatility. Spillovers between Bitcoin and other financial assets intensify during extreme global market conditions. Secondly, results from the cross-quantilogram indicate strong dependence and positive directional predictability between Bitcoin and most equities and crude oil when market returns are bullish. However, during the bearish market period, there is negative dependence and predictability from Bitcoin to stocks in Finland, the Netherlands, the U.S.A, and the crude oil market only. This implies that Bitcoin can act as a hedge to stocks in Finland, the Netherlands, the U.S.A, and the crude oil market. However, insignificant dependence and directional predictability from Bitcoin to the remaining assets indicate that Bitcoin may act as a safe-haven to these assets during bearish markets. Our findings hold important implications for both international investors and portfolio managers who consider Bitcoin as part of their portfolio diversification and other investment strategies.     

Third-party certification and post-IPO acquisitions

ABSTRACT

We explore the link between third-party certification (venture capital backing, analyst following and having a top underwriter), and post-IPO acquisition activity through the reduction in valuation uncertainty channel. In a sample of 2,424 U.S. IPOs, we find that third-party certification facilitates post-IPO acquisitions. The certified firms are both more likely and conduct acquisitions sooner after the IPO. Our results support the notion that third-party certification reduces post-IPO valuation uncertainty and thereby facilitates a more efficient acquisition strategy.     

RETURNS TO DEBT AND EQUITY IN FARM PRODUCER ORGANIZATIONS

While the capital structure irrelevance proposition is the point of departure in corporate finance, it is unknown if debt‐or‐equity decisions matter to farm producer organizations. To inform decisions of capital acquisition, a panel study is conducted to estimate the relationships of different types of debt (current, long‐term) and equity (allocated, unallocated) to the financial performance of 707 farm producer organizations in the United States during the 2005–2011 period. Using 3,120 observations, the panel analysis indicates net sales in period t is increased by $1.97, $9.59, and $4.01 with an addition of $1 in current debt, allocated equity, or unallocated equity in period t_‐1. Furthermore, the magnitude of the positive relationship of an additional dollar of allocated (unallocated) equity to net income is estimated at $0.32 ($0.14). We thus reject the notion managers and directors of farm producer organizations should decide to use debt or equity with a coin toss.     

Global trade impacts of increasing Europe's bioenergy demand

European governments are rapidly turning to biomass to comply with the EU's legislated renewable energy targets for 2020 and 2030. To do so, EU member states will likely have to increase imports of biomass from timber rich regions, which will undoubtedly disrupt international wood product markets. In this study, a static global forest trade model of coniferous wood products is used to examine the effects of expanded demand for wood pellets in Europe to generate reliable electricity. Positive mathematical programming (PMP) is used to calibrate the model to 2012 bilateral trade flows. To assess the impact of increased wood-pellet demand on global forest products, we consider a scenario where EU demand for wood pellets doubles. Model results suggest increases in the world prices of industrial roundwood (1%), particleboard ($34/m³), fibreboard ($30/m³), pulp ($65/t) and pellets (71% to 128%), while the prices of sawnwood and plywood & veneer are projected to fall by $12/m³ and $4/m³, respectively. The gains and losses are unevenly distributed between timber rich and timber poor regions; Russia, Canada and the U.S. experience large net welfare gains of $706 million, $544 million and $416 million, respectively, while Asia loses $1.8 billion. In the forest products sector, the gains outweigh losses with economic benefits increasing by some $4.9 billion, but this is a cost to the consumers of electricity and/or taxpayers in the regions implementing these renewable energy policies. The price of wood pellets is projected to rise between $107 and $154 per tonne. The findings highlight the need to account for the interconnections among softwood forest products globally.     

基于广义资源观的企业并购整合的价值创造

并购是重新配置资源有效机制,而并购后的整合是提高社会资源配置的有效手段。并购后整合是否能实现价值的创造是决定企业是否进行并购的重要决定因素。基于广义资源观,探讨了并购后整合的价值创造机理,认为在企业并购中资源、能力和知识的转移是可以实现的,但因要素特性不同和转移过程中遇到的影响因素不同使得其转移的过程和难度有所不同。在企业并购中,经过长期学习积累起来的、以知识为主要形态的无形资源、隐性知识和核心能力的转移难度就很大。无形资源、隐性知识和核心能力的转移难度与这些要素的特征有直接关系。     

Irrigation water productivity in Cambodian rice systems

Knowledge of the marginal productivity of water is crucial for decisions about its allocation between uses, which is particularly important in the context of increasing competition for water. Using primary, plot‐level panel data, this article estimates the marginal productivity of water from supplementary irrigation in lowland rice systems in Cambodia, taking into account farmer and plot heterogeneity as well as self‐selection of supplementary irrigation. Our estimates indicate a range of elasticities for rice output with respect to water inputs of between 0.057 and 0.069 for wet season production, substantially lower than previous estimates based on either aggregate or trial data. We discuss the policy implications of these results, in particular with respect to the utility of demand management policies and the challenges they pose to the decentralization of water management to Farmer Water Users Groups.     

Cointegration in China's log import demand: Price endogeneity and structural change

The monthly data of China's log import from January 2000 to December 2013 are used to estimate the import demand elasticities, with the consideration of possible price endogeneity due to China's large share of the international log market, and structural break caused by global financial crisis in 2008. To address the possible structural break, cointegration tests allowing for a deterministic shift in the level of the variables are employed, and a two-stage estimation with top-down sequential elimination algorithm is performed on the restricted subset VECM. The results demonstrate that there exists a long-run cointegration relationship between China's log import and the explanatory variables. The import elasticities of macroeconomic development and import price are around 0.76 and −0.81, respectively. Other things being equal, the structural break would induce a 29.6% decline in China's log import. All the above parameters are significant at the 1% risk level. Furthermore, the contribution decomposition analysis suggests that China's macroeconomic development plays a dominant role in determining its log import, which implies that China's log import would not increase as quickly as before, given that its economy is shifting into the “New Normal State”. This conjecture is supported by our simulations, which indicate that, by 2020, the growth rate of China's log import will be lower than it has been in the past and the import volume would be approximately 1.1–1.6 times greater compared to imports in 2013.     

Association Between Independent Auditor Fees and Firm Value： A Study of Brazilian Public Companies

This article investigates the relationship between fees for audit and non-audit services with Tobin＇s Q. Using a sample of Brazilian public companies in the period from 2009 to 2011, we estimate the association between Tobin＇s Q and the auditors＇ remuneration scaled by total assets. Additionally, to strengthen the conclusions, we present a second model with the remuneration of the auditors in absolute terms. The results suggest a significant relationship between Tobin＇s Q and audit and non-audit fees, positive and negative, respectively. Specifically, increases in audit fees and non-audit fees respectively increase and decrease the Tobin＇s Q of the audited company. The results of this study have important implications for those interested in good corporate governance practices. Managers and board members concerned with value carefully evaluate the remuneration and nature of services creation, when engaging independent auditors, should provided.