Index Revision,House Price Risk,and the Market for House Price Derivatives

It is widely recognized that options and futures markets for housing can reduce and manage the risks inherent in consumers’ large investments in housing equity. The integrity of such markets depends, however, upon the use of transparent and replicable benchmarks for house prices and settlement values. In the USA, a series of state and metropolitan indexes have been produced by a government agency (the US Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, OFHEO), and they have been widely disseminated for over a decade. By construction, the entire historical path of each of these indexes is, in principle, subject to revision quarterly, that is, every time the index is recalculated and data are published. This paper provides the first analysis of the magnitude and bias of these revisions, and it analyzes their systematic effects on the settlement prices in housing options markets. The paper considers the implications of these magnitudes for the development of risk-reducing futures markets.

一种新的利用网络爬虫技术的土地价格指数编制方法

研究目标：目前有关中国土地价格指数的研究没有考虑不可观测特征的影响,本文给出一种可以控制不可观测特征的土地价格指数编制方法。[HTH]研究方法：通过结合传统的特征价格模型和重复交易模型,提出固定地理单元并利用组内差分以控制地块不可观测特征,提出了一种新的土地价格指数编制方法。[HTH]研究发现：[HTF][STBZ][WTBZ]以上海为例讨论了分类土地价格指数,研究发现从2008~2015年,上海同质住宅用地价格上升了359.92%,同质工业用地和商服用地价格的涨幅分别为101%和107%。[HTH]研究创新：利用网络爬虫技术收集微观土地交易数据,为指数的编制提供了数据基础。[HTH]研究价值：该方法能够捕捉地块所在的特殊位置对于其价格的影响。     

The contagion effect of foreclosed properties

Although previous research shows that prices of homes in neighborhoods with foreclosures are lower than those in neighborhoods without foreclosures, it remains unclear whether the lower prices are the result of a general decline in neighborhood values or whether foreclosures reduce the prices of nearby non-distressed sales through a contagion effect. We provide robust evidence of a contagion discount by simultaneously estimating the local price trend and the incremental price impact of nearby foreclosures. At its peak, the discount is roughly 1% per nearby foreclosed property. The discount diminishes rapidly as the distance to the distressed property increases. The contagion discount grows from the onset of distress through the foreclosure sale and then stabilizes. This pattern is consistent with the contagion effect being the visual externality associated with deferred maintenance and neglect.     

An Initial Investigation of Integrating Innovation Diffusion Models for Drawing First‐time Visitors

Prior studies in the existing tourism literature have frequently emphasized the relatively expensive costs for drawing first‐time visitors. These studies, however, have largely failed to explain how to draw first‐time visitors to a destination. In other words, little was known regarding what destinations should do to attract first‐time visitors in an effective way. To provide more insights, this research investigated the impact of three diffusion models on attracting first‐time visitors. These models included an external influence model for impact of mass media, an internal influence model for impact of interpersonal communications, and a mixed model for impacts of both mass media and interpersonal communications. Assessing the model impact in a macroapproach for first‐time visitors to Hong Kong, empirical findings indicated that the mixed influence model provided the highest explanatory quality, with word‐of‐mouth being a dominant factor.     

Grounds of Visitors' Post-Trade Fair Behavior: An Exploratory Study

ABSTRACT

This paper attempts to gain a deeper understanding of trade fairs as services, analyzing determinants of visitors' post-trade fair behavior (i.e., global satisfaction and future intention) according to their main objectives for trade fair participation. We discuss the fact that trade fairs represent a peculiar type of service, since the evaluation of satisfaction with the trade fair depends not only on the service provider (the organizer) but also on another stakeholder (the exhibitor). The nature of the study is exploratory and uses a survey applied to visitors at a business-to-business (B2B) international trade fair held in Portugal. The main conclusion is that, in the particular case of trade fairs as services, the role of the exhibitor is more important than the role of the organizer in determining the visitor's global satisfaction and intention to participate in future editions of the trade fair. The study contributes to trade fairs and services marketing literature and allows drawing of managerial implications, particularly relevant to trade fair organizers.     

The extent and nature of opportunity identification by experienced entrepreneurs

Guided by insights from cognitive theories, this article explores the links between entrepreneurs' prior business ownership experience and their opportunity identification behavior. Hypotheses were tested using data from 630 entrepreneurs. Experienced entrepreneurs identified more opportunities and exploited more innovative opportunities with greater wealth creation potential. Entrepreneurs that had owned more than 4.5 businesses, however, identified fewer opportunities. The nature of prior business ownership experience also shaped opportunity identification behavior. An inverse U-shaped relationship was detected between the proportion of failed businesses relative to the number of businesses owned and the number of opportunities identified in a given period. Business failure experience was not associated with the innovativeness of exploited opportunities.     

An analysis on perceived crowding level reported by domestic visitors of South Korean National Parks: a multilevel ordered logit approach

Perceived Crowding Level (PCL) is an indicator of the social carrying capacity of recreational sites such as National Parks. Using a sample of national-level visitor survey data across 21 National Parks in South Korea, this paper aims to apply a multilevel ordered logit model as a method in testing for statistical relationships between the PCL and the covariates, accounting for site- and individual-specific heterogeneity. The results hint that levels of perceived crowding in South Korean National Parks are related to factors such as the behaviour of other users and the quality of park facilities such as comfort in accommodation. The measured level of heterogeneity can provide useful information about the level (nation-wide or park-specific) of intervention policies and management strategies.     

Estimating price trends for residential property: A comparison of repeat sales and assessed value methods

The repeat sales methodology for estimating residential price indices is based on actual appreciation of individual properties. On the other hand, the repeat sales method wastes data, typically discarding a large percentage of all sales. This article explores two issues related to the subsample of repeat sales. First, are paired sales representative of the entire population of properties that sold? Second, is there evidence that sample selectivity biases the price trend estimates? Evidence from five metropolitan areas supports a negative answer to the first question and the second question. It appears that a “lemon” or “starter home” effect causes repeat residential sales to be a biased subsample of all transactions. Cumulative price trends for the repeat subsamples can differ from the full samples over periods ranging from two to ten quarters. While short-term price trends can differ widely, there are no systematic differences among the samples over long periods of time (e.g., three years or more).     

Littering in protected areas: a conservation and management challenge – a case study from the Autonomous Region of Madrid,Spain

This paper examines issues surrounding littering in protected areas (PAs), one of the most ubiquitous and conspicuous impacts of tourism activity. In addition to obvious visual, landscape-affecting impacts, litter may have hazardous consequences for biodiversity and humans. In order to precisely assess littering in a densely populated region with high levels of visitation to natural and protected areas, we counted, measured and classified all types of non-organic litter covering an area of 1 cm² or more found on the ground in zones intensively used by visitors (picnic areas and paths) within the 10 PAs of the Autonomous Region of Madrid. On average, 11.65 m²/ha of litter were recorded in those zones. Strict visitor management measures greatly reduced that figure. Over 75% of all litter was paper and cardboard, and plastic; 88% of litter coverage was by large pieces over 25 cm² in size. We tested the hypothesis that the amount of waste found on paths is correlated with the distance to the entrance to a PA, but no general model fitted actual litter distribution patterns, although empirical results backed the hypothesis for most cases. A range of waste management strategies are explored and litter management measures suggested for problematic PAs.