货币流通速度的变化与经济波动的实证分析

本文使用1990—2007年年度数据研究了我国货币流通速度变化率与实际总产出增长率之间的动态关系。通过相关性分析、脉冲响应分析以及方差分解技术深入分析了我国货币流通速度变化率、货币供应量增长率对实际总产出增长率的影响,实证结果表明我国货币流通速度对实际总产出的增长具有“加速器”的作用。基于实证分析的结论同时结合当前我国的经济形式,本文认为加大降息力度并实施积极的财政政策对防止经济的下滑具有极其重要的意义。     

基于DFSR模型房地产税收政策对房价影响研究——以上海市为例

以上海市为研究区域,构建包含驱动力、状态、响应指标的DFSR模型来分析房地产税收政策对房价响应的评价体系,其中利用主成份分析法确定驱动力指标综合得分,再根据量化的各项指标,明确房地产税收政策在房价影响中的地位。研究结果表明,房地产税收政策的调整呈明显的周期性变化,在政策调控力度强的情况下,政策对房价的影响是非常明显的。同时房地产税收政策调控具有时滞性,政策的调控力度与房价的变化并不完全同步。最后提出相应的改革措施,为优化房地产税收政策提供建议与参考。     

Does foreign investor demand for information affect forecast accuracy? Evidence from the Chinese stock markets

Prior international accounting studies have examined mainly the supply side of analyst research. Specific trading rights and financial reporting systems in China provide a unique opportunity to test both demand and supply factors of analyst information. For shares traded only by less-informed foreign investors, the increased information demand may create incentives for analysts to exert greater efforts than for shares traded by local investors. This study provides evidence that analyst effort (proxied by analyst coverage) and expertise (proxied by consensus cross-analyst forecast variability) affect forecast accuracy more significantly for shares traded by foreign investors than for shares traded by local investors. Additionally, I find that the relation between analyst characteristics and relative forecast accuracy is stronger for shares traded by the foreign investors. The findings are consistent with analysts responding to demands for information by less-informed investors.     

基于SVECM的我国经济增长动态效应的实证研究

本文应用结构向量误差修正模型(SVECM),实证分析1990-2008年我国投资、消费、进出口对经济增长的动态效应.实证结果显示:消费对经济的短期和长期冲击均高于投资和进出口,消费对投资冲击大于投资对消费冲击,消费和投资未产生相互挤出效应;经济波动以消费为主,世界经济波动对我国经济波动显著增强.     

积极支持银行间外汇市场的系统及产品建设

2008年2月26日,中国外汇交易中心发布2007年度银行间外汇市场优秀做市商、优秀会员和优秀交易员名单。根据此次评选．中国工商银行荣获最佳交易规范奖、交易优秀奖、最佳IT支持做市商三个奖项,该行交易员朱珩、江伟被评为优秀交易员。该行不仅在零售市场上表现突出,也在银行间外汇市场上积极支持中国银行间外汇市场的系统及产品建设工作。     

Modeling time series information into option prices: An empirical evaluation of statistical projection and GARCH option pricing model

This paper compares the empirical performances of statistical projection models with those of the Black–Scholes (adapted to account for skew) and the GARCH option pricing models. Empirical analysis on S&P500 index options shows that the out-of-sample pricing and projected trading performances of the semi-parametric and nonparametric projection models are substantially better than more traditional models. Results further indicate that econometric models based on nonlinear projections of observable inputs perform better than models based on OLS projections, consistent with the notion that the true unobservable option pricing model is inherently a nonlinear function of its inputs. The econometric option models presented in this paper should prove useful and complement mainstream mathematical modeling methods in both research and practice.     

企业应对反倾销的会计信息证据效力保障机制理论框架研究

首先阐述了企业应对反倾销会计信息证据效力保障机制的研究意义,明确了该机制研究的理论基础是由一个整合理论框架,以及严谨的概念基础和良好的创新语境等组成。然后,对国内外研究现状进行了动态分析,把国内学者相关研究的新进展和成效,国外经典的研究方法体系和关注企业策略性行为对反倾销的影响,战略性"反倾销管理"理念,作为设计我国企业应对反倾销会计信息证据效力保障机制的借鉴,从企业战略层面及相应的制度配置与协调上,构建了与我国企业应对反倾销相适应的会计信息证据效力保障机制。     

多渠道实现高校融资规模效益研究

1999年我国高校开始扩招以来，高校为了实现规模的扩大开始大量举债。极度扩张之后，高校贷款后遗症随后出现，经费有限，贷款期限短，无法短期还贷，光靠扩张规模已经不符合新时期高等教育发展的要求。要转变高校发展理念，重人才培养而不是重规模。实现适度融资规模效应，以往依靠商业银行贷款的方式则要转向政府、高校、社会三方的共同努力得以实现。     

Coordinating under incomplete information

We show that, in a minimum effort game with incomplete information where player types are independently drawn, there is a largest and smallest Bayesian equilibrium, leading to the set of equilibrium payoffs (as evaluated at the interim stage) having a lattice structure. Furthermore, the range of equilibrium payoffs converges to those of the deterministic complete information version of the game, in the limit as the incomplete information vanishes. This entails that such incomplete information alone cannot explain the equilibrium selection suggested by experimental evidence. We thank Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Hans Carlsson, Ani Guerdjikova and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Part of this work was done while Asheim was visiting Cornell University, which hospitality is gratefully acknowledged.     

A Bioeconomic Analysis of a Shellfishery: The Effects of Recruitment and Habitat in a Metapopulation Model

This paper presents a bioeconomic model wherefishing effort exerted has multiple impacts onthe recruitment process of a sedentaryshellfish population. Recognizing thatsedentary populations generally possessmetapopulation characteristics at therecruitment stage, we show that fishing effortexerted not only influences the recruitmentprocess indirectly by limiting the number ofadults that spawn, but also directly byaffecting the habitat in which shellfish larvaerecruit. Depending on the recruitmentcharacteristics, fishing can have negative andpositive direct and indirect effects on therecruitment process. Next, a positive directeffect that fishing can have on the growth rateof the shellfish population if space to recruitto is limited is studied. Generalcharacteristics of sustainable fishing areanalyzed for the case that recruitment occursimmediately once spawning has occurred as wellas for the case that recruitment takes placeover a longer period of time. Conditions areidentified under which shellfishing should beencouraged in order to facilitate therecruitment process of juveniles. The paperends by analyzing how fishing alters theoptimal sustainable solution when itcontributes to habitat destruction.