审计意见购买:理论分析与治理路径

审计意见购买的治理是审计监管的重要议题。本文以代理理论、契约理论、信号理论以及管制理论对审计意见购买的产生机理及动机进行了深刻分析,指出委托代理关系变异、契约的不完全性、信号传递失灵及管制失败是影响审计意见购买行为发生的重要因素。审计意见购买行为的治理需要从需求、供给及监管等三方分别采取合适的措施与策略。其中,引导自愿性审计需求,发挥审计市场的信号机制和声誉机制作用,是治理的根本出路。     

The market price of Low-Income Housing Tax Credits

The Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program awards a subsidy to private developers who construct and operate housing units with income-targeted rent controls for at least 15 years. The program allocated $6.6 billion to developers in 2006, and over 1.6 million units have been subsidized under the program since its inception in 1987. A historical literature suggests place-based housing subsidies, such as the LIHTC program, will be more expensive in providing the same level of housing support to the poor than tenant-based strategies (i.e., housing vouchers). This paper uses an administrative data series of LIHTC subsidized properties in California to show the program encourages developers to construct housing units that are an estimated 20% more expensive per square foot than average industry estimates. It is additionally shown that due to liquidity constraints faced by LIHTC primary developers in how the subsidy is allocated, virtually all developers sell the tax credits at a substantial discount below their statutory value immediately after construction. This price is estimated to be $0.73 per $1 of tax credit, or $1.8 billion annually, as compared to alternatively allocating a lump sum grant to developers.     

A review and comparison of medical expenditures models: two neural networks versus two‐part models

This paper compares the two‐part model (TPM) that distinguishes between users and non‐users of health care, with two neural networks (TNN) that distinguish users by frequency. In the model comparisons using data from the National Health Research Institute (NHRI) in Taiwan, we find strong evidence in favor of the neural networks approach. This paper shows that the individuals in the self‐organizing map (SOM) network clusters can be described as several different forms of frequency distributions. The integration model of SOM and back propagation network (BPN) proposed by this paper not only permits policymakers to easily include more risk adjusters besides the demographics in the traditional capitation formula through the adaptation and calculation power of neural networks, but also reduces the incentives for cream skimming by decreasing estimation biases.     

Public expenditures and the unemployment rate in the American states: panel evidence

We reexamine the Unemployment Rate (UR) – government expenditure nexus in a panel of 50 State and Local Governments (SLGs) over the period 1977–2006 to provide new pre-recession empirical evidence that helps put the expectations on the effects of the federal relief to SLGs in a broader context. We found that: (1) per capita real public spending (total and capital, assistance and subsidies, wages and salaries, and social insurance categories) was part of a cointegrating relationship with UR and real per capita state personal income. (2) With the exception of social insurance, other spending variables, when statistically significant, actually had a depressing effect on UR. The magnitude of this effect, however, was generally small. UR was most sensitive to increases in wages and salaries. (3) Long-term causality analysis based on panel error-correction coefficients provided consistent evidence of a causal effect from spending to UR, but less consistent evidence of such effect in the opposite direction. Social insurance, however, drove UR. (4) The size of the error-correction coefficients suggested a slow response of UR to deviations from the cointegrating relationship. (5) The marginal effect of spending on UR increased with the amount of the federal grants received. Our results suggest that public spending may not serve as a quick fix in relation to UR. They also seem to favour allocation of the federal funds to wage and salaries and assistance and subsidies, but not to capital and social insurance expenditures to lower UR.     

Managed care and the near-elderly: effects of plan enrollment on functionality

This paper examines the effects of enrollment in a health maintenance organization (HMO) or a preferred provider organization (PPO) on the functional status of near-elderly adults (aged 55–64), compared to traditional fee-for-service (FFS) plans. A sample of 1306 near-elderly adults with employer-sponsored health insurance are drawn from the 2000–2002 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative panel survey of community-dwelling adults. Regression models are estimated to assess the effects of different types of insurance plans on functionality, as measured by whether or not the individual has any functional limitations. The potential influence of selection bias into alternative types of plans is addressed by limiting the sample to near-elders without a choice of health plans. The effects of HMOs on functionality are shown to be comparable to those of FFS plans among the general near-elderly population. However, significant adverse effects of HMO enrollment on functional status are observed among near-elders with chronic conditions. PPO enrollees have similar functional outcome to FFS enrollees, even among those with chronic conditions. The observed differences in functional outcome across plans have important implications for the practicality of managed care plans serving older adults.     

The World Market for Labor and the World Market for Industrial Sites

At the center of the on-going debate about the U.S. Social Security system is the question of whether the way the system is financed can cope with the future challenges posed by the retiring Baby Boom generation. The "reformers" suggest changing the design of the system by moving to fully funded defined contribution retirement plans. Others argue that the so-called demographic problems are being used as an excuse to privatize the system. But both sides spend almost all of their energy and time figuring out the timing of insolvency of the system and the validity of the assumptions made in each forecast. In contrast, the present study closely examines the changing macroeconomic dynamics of the system since the 1960s. The analysis shows that undermining of the system is caused not by demographic changes or financing mechanisms but by low wages and medical inflation.     

What does the Chinese market need? An empirical study of the determinants of Chinese imports, 1996–2008

This study provides an in-depth analysis of the determinants of import demand in China through a multilevel approach. Using disaggregated data over 1996–2008 and a dynamic panel model, we find that the Chinese import market is predominantly characterized by quality competition. However, the nature of the competition varies across different industries. In line with theory, quality plays an important role in industries that are characterized by the potential for quality improvement and product differentiation, whereas price is key in industries in which quality and product differences are rather small. Moreover, private consumption expenditure is more influential than other categories of expenditures. Additionally, variables that can influence the relative price of import products, such as the exchange rate, tariffs and the domestic price index, also have an impact on import demand.     

基于主体功能区的财政支出绩效评价研究

国家在"十一五"规划纲要中明确提出推进主体功能区建设这一重大的决策。不仅考虑了空间的秩序开发、空间的结构优化,更能够促进区域的协调发展。于是主体功能区规划需要正确评估区域发展潜力,其中地域财政支出绩效评价作为一重要基础,而财政支出绩效评价是引导、调控主体功能区发展的必要手段。     

Government Expenditures and Revenues: Evidence of Fractional Cointegration in an Asymmetric Modeling

In this paper, we examine the relationship between the US government expenditures and revenues using a fractional cointegration framework. In doing so, we permit a much richer degree of flexibility in the dynamic adjustment process toward equilibrium than in the classical case of cointegration. Moreover, we relax the assumption of a symmetric adjustment process throughout the use of threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) models in the error correction representation of the process. The results show that both individual series are non-stationary I(1) and we do not find evidence of cointegration of any degree. However, if we take into account a structural break at 1973(2), fractional cointegration is found if the underlying process is autocorrelated, especially in the asymmetric modeling.

Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy

This paper investigates the Keynesian view and the Wagner’s Law on the role of public expenditure on economic growth for Malaysia (1970–2004). The empirical results using the Auto-Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the ‘bounds test’ (Pesaran et al. in J Appl Econ 16:289–326, 2001) showed evidence of a long run relationship between total expenditures (including expenditures on defense, education, development and agriculture) and Gross National Product. The results also show that with the structural break in 1998, the long run causality is bi-directional for GNP and expenditures on administration and health, supporting both Keynes view and Wagner’s Law. For all other expenditure categories the long run causality runs from GNP to the expenditures, which supports Wagner’s Law. An erratum to this article can be found at