统计数据公信力探析

统计数据与人们生活息息相关,是政府决策的重要依据和政策评价标准,它在越来越受到人们注视的同时,也受到了人们的质疑,统计数据公信力受到影响。应大力宣传统计法,建立统计数据问责制,加强统计制度的完善和统计方法的更新,提高统计人员素质,以实现真实统计,提高统计数据公信力。     

澄清公告可信度的市场反应

文章以澄清及时性、澄清态度和澄清内容准确性刻画澄清公告可信度,采用事件研究法,检验了澄清公告可信度的市场反应。研究发现:澄清越及时,澄清态度越肯定,澄清内容越准确,澄清公告的可信度越高,市场反应越大,市场对利好消息的可信度有更显著的市场反应。     

Estimating loss-given default through advanced credibility theory

The New Basel Accord allows internationally active banking organizations to calculate their credit risk capital requirements using an internal ratings based approach, subject to supervisory review. One of the modeling components is the loss-given default (LGD): it represents the credit loss for a bank when extreme events occur that influence the obligor ability to repay his debts to the bank. Among researchers and practitioners the use of statistical models such as linear regression, Tobit or decision trees is quite common in order to compute LGDs as a forecasting of historical losses. However, these statistical techniques do not seem to provide robust estimation and show low performance. These results could be driven by some factors that make differences in LGD, such as the presence and quality of collateral, timing of the business cycle, workout process management and M&A activity among banks. This paper evaluates an alternative method of modeling LGD using a technique based on advanced credibility theory typically used in actuarial modeling. This technique provides a statistical component to the credit and workout experts’ opinion embedded in the collateral and workout management process and improve the predictive power of forecasting. The model has been applied to an Italian Bank Retail portfolio represented by Overdrafts; the application of credibility theory provides a higher predictive power of LGD estimation and an out-of-time sample backtesting has shown a stable accuracy of estimates with respect to the traditional LGD model.     

医药企业信誉危机管理

目的探讨医药企业信誉危机的管理方法本文介绍了危机管理的相关理论，并结合实际进行了相关案例的分析、结果与结论在理论研究的基础上建立了一个医药企业信誉危机管理模型。     

电子商务诚信问题的现状分析与机制构建

电子商务是利用计算机技术、网络技术和远程通信技术进行的商务活动,实现了整个商务过程中的电子化、数字化和网络化。电子商务已经得到了普遍开展,影响到了社会生活的各个方面。目前由于电子商务本身的虚拟特征,加之社会大环境的诚信状况不良,电子商务诚信问题对电子商务的健康发展是一个严重的阻碍因素。因而电子商务诚信建设是一项关系到电子商务进一步发展的关键问题。这是一项复杂的社会系统工程,它不仅需要营造诚信的社会大环境,而且必须从法制高度着手,完善立法、强化司法、加强政府监管和行业自律,构建电子商务诚信机制。     

Multinationals,Intra-Firm Trade and the Taxation of Foreign-Source Income

Most countries use the tax credit scheme instead of the tax deduction scheme to alleviate double taxation of foreign earnings. Under the tax deduction scheme, double taxation is alleviated by treating foreign taxes paid as business cost deductible against domestic income rather than allowing them to be credited against the taxes levied by the home country (as is the case under the tax credit system).This paper examines how the two tax systems affect trade between affiliates of a multinational firm.     

财务危机智能预警:指标选择与技术路线

利用智能技术实现对企业财务危机提前警示,是当前国内外研究的前沿课题。本文针对目前已有研究的不足,采用比较研究的方法,对财务危机智能预警的关键问题即选择哪些指标作为预警的信息源和采用何种技术模型来处理信息以实现预警,进行了分析与探讨。     

Optimality properties of alternative systems of taxation of foreign capital income

Foreign source capital income taxes are examined from the point of view of optimal taxation. In the framework of a simple economy with international real capital flows, a taxonomy of alternative systems of such taxation is first presented, showing how crediting and other tax parameters induce what are called source-based, residence-based and related systems. Next, tax rates are determined that are optimal from a single country's point of view, given those of the others. The achievability of these rates under the various systems is analyzed. Finally, tax rates that are optimal from an international point of view are considered. Again, achievability of an international optimum under the various systems is considered, leading to the main conclusions that (i) a pure residence-based system in all countries can achieve an international fiscal optimum; (ii) it cannot, however, be sustained as an equilibrium.     

政府信任、企业信用结构及其相关性的经验研究

本文提出"流动性"和"履约评价"相互转换的企业信用结构的转换规律,并研究"政府信任"的隐性担保功能对上市公司的"履约评价",以及对商业信用、银行信用和证券信用的影响.经验研究的结果说明,在上市公司信用结构中,商业信用主要受长期商业关系而不受政府信用的影响;政府信用增强了企业的长期银行借款能力,但短期银行借款更依赖于经营性因素;政府信用对增强企业的证券融资能力具有显著作用.     

会计信用的经济学分析

会计信用问题的提出,源于会计信用缺失的严峻现实。会计信用与会计诚信不同,依据新制度经济学、委托代理理论、信息经济学等理论的观点,会计信用实质上是一种制度结构,旨在规范会计行为主体自觉选择诚信执业。社会也迫切需要建立并实施一套健全有效的会计信用体系。