Macroeconomic consequences of state fragility in sub‐Saharan Africa

Are poor macroeconomic outcomes primarily the result of economic policies, or of deeper underlying state fragility problems in sub‐Saharan Africa? We attempt to answer this question by using carefully specified dynamic panel regression techniques to show how state fragility conditions help to explain the differences in the macroeconomic performance of sub‐Saharan African economies, and to identify the most plausible mechanisms of transmission. We find that countries with greater fragility suffer higher macroeconomic volatility and crisis; they also experience weaker growth. When we disaggregate state fragility into its various components, we find that it is the security and social components that have the strongest causal impact on macroeconomic outcomes, while the political component is, at best, weak. Therefore, we conclude that it is state fragility conditions, and not necessarily macroeconomic policies, that are of first‐order importance in explaining the differences in macroeconomic performance for African countries. The knock‐on effects are mostly mediated through the fiscal channel, the aid channel, and the finance channel. Accordingly, we recommend that interventions in fragile states should best focus on exploiting the potential for using fiscal policy, aid, and finance as instruments to improve macroeconomic outcomes in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa*

Two of the main forces driving European emigration in the late nineteenth century were real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions and demographic booms in the low‐wage sending regions. Our new estimates of net migration for the countries of sub‐Saharan Africa show that exactly the same forces driving African across‐border migration are at work today. The results suggest that rapid growth in the cohort of potential young emigrants, population pressure on the resource base, and slow economic growth are likely to intensify the pressure for migration out of Africa and into high‐wage OECD countries over the next two decades.     

RESEARCH NOTE: ERRORS IN THE OCTOBER HOUSEHOLD SURVEY 1994 AVAILABLE FROM THE SOUTH AFRICAN DATA ARCHIVE1

The on‐line electronic documentation supplied with the 1994 October Household Survey by the South African Data Archive (SADA) appears to be incorrect. In particular, the electronic version of the questionnaire does not correspond to the hard copy in the possession of the author. The most serious error is that the race classification in the electronic copy is different from the classification on the hard copy. Researchers relying on the electronic copy will erroneously interchange the categories “Coloured”, “White” and “Black”. This could lead to seriously misleading analyses. The reason for this mistake can probably be attributed to a retyping of the questionnaire using the 1993 OHS as a template.     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

长三角居民赴韩旅游消费模式初探

在实证研究的基础上从出游认知、消费构成、消费评价和消费趋势进行分析，探讨了长三角地区居民赴韩旅游消费模式。研究表明，长三角地区居民赴韩旅游出游认知和消费构成亦处于初级阶段，对消费评价和消费倾向大体上持肯定态度和乐观态度。     

粤商发展历史简论

粤商是诞生和发展于岭南地区,然后扩散到国内各地区、世界各国家的商帮。岭南的历史文化滋养了粤商;近代中国的开放推动了粤商的崛起;20世纪前期民族工商业的振兴,使粤商获得了较好的发展机遇。粤商在成长、发展、壮大和转型的过程中,形成了自身独特的历史文化特色。     

中韩自由贸易区的可行性与障碍分析

中韩自由贸易区作为推动中日韩乃至整个东亚地区经济合作的有效途径,它的建立十分重要.在建立中韩自由贸易区是必要的这一前提下,从中韩政界和企业界的态度、经贸文化交流、经济互补性和建立后的贸易效应四方面论证建立中韩自由贸易区是可行的;同时,指出建立中韩自由贸易区的障碍并提出了相应的对策.     

Potential user factors driving adoption of IPTV. What are customers expecting from IPTV?

Internet Protocol Television (IPTV), the convergence services of television and Internet, is being rapidly developed around the world. The advent of digital technologies has changed the convergence market dramatically with the wide diffusion of the convergent services. Using the Technology Acceptance Model as a conceptual framework and method of logistic regression, this research analyzes the demand for IPTV by drawing data from 452 consumers. Individuals' responses to questions about whether they accept IPTV are collected and combined with observations of their socio-economic status and intrinsic/extrinsic factors modified from the Technology Acceptance Model. Results of logistic regression show two variables (intrinsic and extrinsic factors) that seem to explain what influences consumer behavior towards adopting IPTV. Overall, the logistic regression model explains over 50% of the variance in the IPTV adoption. The variances shed light on the multi-open platform environment that IPTV will forge.