TSP—把握水产品消费动态的重要方法

本文运用MICRO TSP－计量经济分析软件包,利用18个变量,预测了2000－2001年全国城乡居民家庭水产品消费增长水平。     

区域旅游业与能源消费的灰色关联分析——以张家界市为例

能源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础,旅游业与能源消费息息相关。随着区域旅游业的日益繁荣,能源消费总量呈日渐上升趋势。本文采用灰色关联方法,测算并分析了2005~2012年张家界市旅游业典型统计指标与能源消费的关联度,并且比较分析了各关联度之间的大小,结论是:区域旅游业中接待游客总人数、旅游总收入、旅游创汇收入、接待境外游客对能源消费具有一致、较高的解释程度。最后从吃、住、行、游、购、娱各方面,提出了降低张家界市旅游业能源消费的对策和建议。     

消费者行为对财政政策的异质反应——以城镇分层收入者为例

对于财政政策与居民消费的关系,主要存在凯恩斯观点、生命周期观点和李嘉图等价命题三种研究视角.但对中国而言,当前的转型经济环境将使现实中符合上述三种视角的居民会同时存在,亦即不同消费群体对财政政策的反应是异质的.文章构建了一个扩展的生命周期理论框架,其中凯恩斯观点和李嘉图等价命题均为这个框架下的特殊形式,从而为消费者行为对财政政策的异质反应提供了一个理论性的解释.此外,文章将我国城镇居民按收入等级分为五组进行相关的经验检验,发现各居民户组对财政政策的反应模式大致按收入水平由高到低表现为李嘉图等价情形、扩展的生命周期情形和凯恩斯情形,这意味着财政政策的制定对各收入阶层的居民具有歧视性效果.文章最后从优化政府购买的支出结构和调整当前税制结构两个方面提出了若干政策建议以刺激国内居民消费的增长.     

Modelling distribution of aggregate expenditure on tourism

The aim of this article is to obtain a statistical distribution that describes the aggregate expenditure of tourists related to their length of stay at a given location. This distribution enables us to estimate two parameters simultaneously; one controls the length of stay and the other, the expense incurred. We propose two distribution models, for which closed-form expressions are obtained. Covariates are introduced in order to study the factors that affect the aggregate expenditure. The results obtained indicate that the models achieve a reasonably good fit, with and without covariates.     

The Learning Tourism Destination: The potential of a learning organisation approach for improving the sustainability of tourism destinations

Globalisation, increasing complexity, and the need to address triple-bottom line sustainability have seen the proliferation of Learning Organisations (LO) who, by definition, have the capacity to anticipate environmental changes and economic opportunities and adapt accordingly. Such organisations use system dynamics modelling (SDM) for both strategic planning and the promotion of organisational learning. Although SDM has been applied in the context of tourism destination management for predictive reasons, the current literature does not analyse or recognise how this could be used as a foundation for an LO. This study introduces the concept of the Learning Tourism Destinations (LTD) and discusses, on the basis of a review of six case studies, the potential of SDM as a tool for the implementation and enhancement of collective learning processes. The results reveal that SDM is capable of promoting communication between stakeholders and stimulating organisational learning. It is suggested that the LTD approach be further utilised and explored.     

Development of a conflict management model as a tool for improved project outcomes in community based tourism

Community based tourism (CBT) offers many opportunities, however, conflict frequently occurs while developing CBT in communities around the world. Despite conflict limiting the potential of CBT, conflict management in CBT has not previously been systematically studied. To investigate conflict and conflict management during CBT, a linear model of conflict management was developed and subsequently tested through a three phase qualitative process: analysis of CBT literature, online international survey of 29 CBT stakeholders, and in-depth interviews of 23 CBT stakeholders. Results endorse the proposed linear model of ‘conflict themes’: an ‘instance’ of conflict, followed by a ‘response’, which results in an ‘impact’. The rich data highlights the complexity involved, which was incorporated into the expanded model with three additional scenarios: ‘new conflict develops’, ‘interrelated conflict themes’, and ‘simultaneous conflict themes’. The complete Conflict Management Model provides stakeholders with a tool to address conflict, thereby improving the outcomes of CBT.     

The ideology of class and tourism confronting the discourse of advertising

Starting from Baudrillard's analysis of the ideological character inherent in all consumption, touristic consumption, for many reasons ,has a special place in this social semantic. Here, advertising plays an important if not essential role because tourism is a product consumed outside of normal time and daily social space. Therefore the social semantic asserts itselfless through the product itself than through its representation: the discourse of advertising. But advertising discourse is plural, each form having its own ideology, competing with others. Behind the commercial competition lies a competition of social classes, but with a new typology, no longer based on the capital/favor relationship. Four ideological models are analyzed and illustrated with their advertising messages: the traditional model, the clerical/executive model, the youth model, and the “intellectual class” model.     

What Would Veblen Say?

It has been more than 100 years since Thorstein Veblen published The Theory of the Leisure Class (TLC). The book was a scathing attack on the greedy leisure class of his day and described how people used wealth to elevate their social position in society. Surprisingly, few researchers use this book to understand leisure in contemporary society. TLC remains as relevant today as it did when first published. In this essay I elucidate some of Veblen's ideas and show how they shed light on leisure spending, emulation among birdwatchers, our display of books, boundary maintenance and social distance, and environmental destruction.     

Tourism in China and professionalism: An insider's perspective

This paper starts with an overview of tourism development in China in the past two decades. While highlighting much of the government initiative which makes progress possible, it tries to pinpoint the primary cause of the existing problems China faces. It is the lack of professionalism, which can be found in government decision making, business management and operation, education and training. The solutions will come mainly from the inside, and one can see efforts being made by policy‐makers and the front‐line people, but it is believed that overseas professionals have a positive role to play, as they have done in China's hospitality industry in the past.