A note on forecasting international tourism demand in Spain

This paper considers the extent to which price and income proxy variables help in forecasting tourist demand in Spain. Contrary to some recent studies, we found that the inputs' contribution in terms of fitting and forecasting is nil when compared with alternative univariate models. Whether these findings are the results of the restrictions embedded in building the proxy inputs or in a poor specification of the dynamics of these models remains to be seen. We also contend that when dealing with medium, long-term forecasting comparisons, the use of the traditional aggregate accuracy measures like RMSE and MAPE help very little in discriminating among competing models. In these situations, predicted annual growth rates may be a better alternative.     

从吉林省旅游发展状况看英语旅游专业的就业前景

高等职业教育的现实目的就是为了培养特殊人才和专业人才。一个专业的就业前景,取决于现实社会生活中的客观需要。随着国民经济的快速、稳定发展,人民生活水平的提高,旅游行业异军突起,迅猛发展。大量的外籍游客涌入中国的同时,还有许多中国游客到海外旅游,这为旅游英语专业的学生提供了广阔的就业机会。     

人力资本投资对西部旅游产业发展影响的实证研究

人力资本投资目前已经成为影响我国区域旅游业发展的重要因素。与东部地区进行对比分析,西部地区在对旅游业的人力资本投资存在许多不足,无论是科技投资、文体卫生投资还是教育事业投资等,都无法与东部地区相比,因而在国内旅游与入境旅游两方面都对旅游产业的发展产生影响。     

促进我国旅游业发展的财税对策探讨

改革开放至今,我国旅游业进行了近30年的探索,但在树立绿色税收、绿色财政理念,搭建适合旅游业发展的财税政策平台,创建生态旅游强国,还任重道远.在探讨加速我国旅游资源整合,促进旅游资源优势向经济优势转变基础上,提出实现旅游行业经济效益和社会效益双赢的财税政策.     

旅游项目风险因素分析的生态系统观点

旅游业是一个关联度大、相关带动性强的经济性产业,因此其风险因素众多.从创新生态系统视角-对旅游项目的风险因素进行分析,可以将这些风险因素分为三类,项目自身风险、项目依赖风险和资源整合风险.     

对新世纪我国高等旅游教育改革的思考

我国旅游业已开始步入成熟期，旅游产品深度挖掘，商品经济开发力度加大，化内涵备受关注。与之紧密相关的旅游教育的发展必须抓住主要矛盾，选准改革的突破口，即：要始终如一地抓住师资队伍建设；要把能力培养摆在突出位置；要建立理论与实践互为促进的教学体系；课程设置要科学合理，符合办学规律。     

Mining landscape: A cultural tourist opportunity or an environmental problem?: The study case of the Cartagena-La Unión Mining District (SE Spain)

Abandoned industrial sites have traditionally constituted an important source of environmental problems. However, such sites are considered in many cases a historic heritage, and in this way, have been protected with different legal dispositions. Mining activities can be considered a special type of industrial site in that they encompass not only architectural but also landscape elements related to geology or topography. The necessity of developing new economic opportunities in these places, whose economy has been traditionally based on the “mining monoculture”, has resulted in the creation of a cultural revival in some mining sites. Nevertheless, these new economic potentials must be compatible with the obligation to maintain a low environmental risk in sites where the heavy metal concentrations are very high. The Cartagena-La Unión Mining District in Southern Spain is an example of such a case. This paper reviews the environmental situation in that area and the initiatives for establishing a cultural tourism. The goal of this paper is to incite the public debate about the balance between environmental risks, cultural safeguarding and economic development.     

西藏民族文化旅游资源的保护性开发——基于产权经济理论和关联博弈理论双重视角

本文以巴泽尔产权经济模型为理论基础,分析了西藏民族文化旅游资源的特殊产权属性,指出西藏民族文化旅游资源在开发中受到破坏的制度经济学根源,并提出以关联博弈为基础健全社会声誉机制,规范利益博弈强势方的开发行为,基于产业发展的三大维度原则,构建西藏民族文化旅游资源的保护性开发体系。     

欠发达地区旅游政策演变及趋势展望———以贵州省为例

旅游政策是欠发达地区加快旅游产业发展、调控旅游产业运行的主要手段。虽有不少学者分别从不同角度对旅游政策进行研究,但对于经济欠发达地区的旅游产业政策研究缺乏动态性、针对性和代表性。本文以欠发达、欠开发的贵州省为例,在制度变迁理论的指导下,以旅游地生命周期理论发展阶段为线索,从旅游政策发展演变与旅游地发展演变具有相互影响、相互作用的关系入手,对贵州旅游政策外事接待、经济优先、协调发展演变过程进行分析,在对各阶段政策效用评价的基础上,总结了旅游发展大会、“多彩贵州”形象推广、“两赛一会”模式、乡村旅游和四位一体等成功经验、分析主要存在旅游政策缺乏动态性、持续性、方向性、操作性和灵活性、缺乏监督考核评价机制和旅游业研发政策力度支持较弱等问题,探讨了贵州旅游政策目标、机制体制、市场、产品、空间布局政策体系以及不同生命周期阶段的旅游产业政策实施重点等演变方向与趋势。