Seasonality and regional productivity in the Spanish accommodation sector

This study quantifies the impact of peak demand and seasonality on regional productivity in the Spanish accommodation sector. We then identify factors affecting seasonal fluctuations and their relative contributions to regional variations in seasonality. The results show that demand for accommodation in the peak season mainly determines productivity. Thus, improving a region's attractiveness as a tourist destination is most effective for tourism-based regional development. In addition, reducing seasonal variations has a non-negligible impact on productivity. A decomposition analysis reveals that providing climate-independent tourist attractions and attracting business travelers are effective in reducing seasonality.     

Fertility and the puzzle of female employment in the Middle East and North Africa

Female labour force participation rates across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have remained low for over four decades even though, in the same period, women's education rapidly increased and fertility rates substantially decreased. This study provides a better understanding of this surprising phenomenon by testing whether the number of children affects the mother's labour supply (using twins at first birth as an instrumental variable.) Despite a strong first stage, it does not find statistically significant effects in the second stage, even in the combined sample of over 100,000 observations. This non‐result, however, does not rule out that fertility affects women's employment in these countries. But it rejects impacts larger than 0.09. Similar twin‐studies in the United States found effects between 0.12 and 0.31. The paper discusses the implications of this result in understanding the puzzle of female participation in MENA and in designing policies to increase women's employment.     

治理机制对顾客参与价值共创行为的影响——虚拟品牌社区的实证研究

虚拟品牌社区是企业与顾客进行价值共创的重要平台,顾客参与价值共创行为对企业长远发展具有十分重要的作用。现有研究多是基于不同的理论从顾客视角出发探索顾客参与价值共创行为受到的心理动机和个人特征等因素的影响,鲜有从企业视角出发,探索治理机制对虚拟品牌社区中顾客参与价值共创行为的影响。本文立足交易成本理论与社会交换理论,从企业视角切入,引入关系质量作为中介变量,构建虚拟品牌社区治理机制、关系质量与顾客参与价值共创行为的关系整合模型。采用问卷调查法对模型进行验证,研究结果显示:(1)契约治理机制只对知识贡献行为产生显著正向影响,对顾客公民行为的影响不显著,而关系治理机制对知识贡献行为与顾客公民行为均具有显著正向影响。(2)关系质量在契约治理机制与顾客公民行为的关系中起完全中介作用,在契约治理机制与知识贡献行为、关系治理机制与知识贡献行为以及关系治理机制与顾客公民行为的关系中起部分中介作用。由研究结论可知,虚拟品牌社区一方面应综合运用契约治理机制与关系治理机制来有效地促进顾客参与价值共创行为,以弥补单独运用某一种治理机制存在的不足;另一方面也应注重关系质量在虚拟品牌社区中促进顾客参与价值共创行为的重要作用。这些研究发现为促进虚拟品牌社区的可持续发展提供了有价值的启示。     

The effects of tourism on HSR: Spanish empirical evidence derived from a multi-criteria corridor selection methodology

The exorbitant cost of new High-Speed Rail (HSR) lines requires a selection methodology to define which HSR corridors within a network should be built first, and the most suitable evaluation tool appears to be the multi-criteria approach. In any corridor-ranking methodology, and especially in countries with high tourism attractiveness, tourism impacts on HSR should be considered as a variable.In addition to economic geography and destination choice models, the current literature on tourism demand is dominated by econometric models using a single-equation time-series based approach. However little research has been done so far on methodologies to rank HSR corridors taking into account the tourism variable. In 2014, a ranking methodology developed by Todorovich and Hagler was validated using the current Spanish HSR network. Twelve variables were used to create an index to assign scores to the city pairs, but tourism was not included as a variable. The findings showed the consistency of the model for ranking pairs mainly in the top O–D relations; however the tool failed to discriminate clearly between secondary groups of corridors.The aim of this paper is to assess empirically the positive effect of tourism on HSR and to enhance the abovementioned ranking tool with a tourism database. The new methodology is tested by application to 1176 city pairs in Spain, and the results clearly show that the implementation of a tourism variable helps discriminate between secondary groups of corridors and offers a more effective approach for determining the implications of tourism on HSR.     

网络政治文化发展的困境与对策研究

随着网络信息技术的发展，我国逐渐形成了一种全新的政治参与文化形态，即网络政治文化。网民政治素养水平参差不齐、政府电子政务建设水平不高、网络法律与道德体系不健全、网络中各种政治文化冲突日益加剧等原因影响着网络政治文化的形成与发展。我们应该坚持以社会主义核心价值观引导网络政治文化的方向、全面提高网民的政治素养使其自觉规范网络言行、加强网络信息监管营造网络政治文化良好氛围等，从而构建先进的网络政治文化。     

The role of public participation in encouraging changes in rural land use to reduce flood risk

Changes in rural land use to reduce flood risk are encouraged by governments in many countries, but they may face considerable opposition by land managers. Local participative processes are thought to help overcome opposition. This article presents an evaluation of an intensive participative process set up between land managers and governmental agencies following two severe floods in the transboundary Bowmont–Glen catchment in Scotland and England. A combination of interviews and documentary analysis is used. The research demonstrates that the participative process contributed to greater uptake of rural land use change and improved compliance with existing environmental policies. There were nevertheless low levels of social learning amongst participants. Two institutional designs for improving policy implementation are presented.     

Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba

This study estimates the effect of seasonal patterns of pull and push climate elements (rainfall, temperature, wind, and cloud coverage) on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand from the United States (USA) and Venezuela to Aruba. The seasonal patterns were first isolated from the series using the Census X-12 decomposition method, after which the analysis included panel data unit root testing, panel data regression, and Euclidean distance calculation. The results show that both pull and push seasonal factors of climate were relevant in determining the seasonal variations in tourism demand from both countries. The study derives two theoretical propositions: (1) climate is a significant push and pull factor affecting tourism demand; and (2) tourism demand and climate are bounded by intertemporal climate constraints.     

温泉度假村旅游服务质量评价实证研究——以河源御临门温泉度假村为例

以河源御临门温泉度假村为例,以温泉旅游服务质量评价问卷为基础,对影响温泉旅游服务质量的20个因素进行了分析,探讨游客对温泉度假村整体旅游服务质量的总体评价。建议度假村从"原生态"温泉文化、温泉旅游解说系统的建设、特色客家温泉饮食文化、员工培训等四个方面进行完善与提高,提升服务满意度。     

Short-term forecasting of Japanese tourist inflow to South Korea using Google trends data

We utilize the Internet search data from Google Trends to provide short-term forecasts for the inflow of Japanese tourists to South Korea. We construct the Google variable in a systematic way by combining keywords to minimize mean squared or mean absolute forecasting errors. We augment the Google variable to the standard time-series forecasting models and compare their forecasting accuracies. We find that Google-augmented models perform much better than the standard time-series models in terms of short-term forecasting accuracy. In particular, Google models show better out-of-sample forecasting performance than in-sample forecasting.     

‘Stop Being a Tourist!’ New Dynamics of Urban Tourism in Berlin‐Kreuzberg

Berlin is witnessing a massive tourism boom, and parts of it can be described as ‘new urban tourism’, which shows a preference for off the beaten track areas and ‘authentic’ experiences of the city. This form of tourism seems especially salient in Kreuzberg. It is here that an openly articulated critique of tourism attracted national attention in 2011 and has not ceased to do so since. This article aims to better understand the conflictive potential of (new urban) tourism in Kreuzberg. We argue that the readily expressed negative attitudes against tourists and the easily accepted link between tourism and gentrification have to be explained against the backdrop of certain housing‐market dynamics. Rising rents and a diminution in the number of flats available for rent are fuelling fears of gentrification in Kreuzberg, while the interest shown in new urban tourism and the comparatively low‐priced real‐estate market in Berlin result in a growing number of holiday flats. Although adding only slightly to the tightening of the housing market, holiday flats render complex processes of neighborhood change visible and further sustain an already prevalent tourism critique.