An effective going concern prediction model for the sustainability of enterprises and capital market development

The purpose of this study is to construct a two-stage effective and innovative going concern prediction model to predict going concern doubt for the sustainability of enterprises and capital market development. Samples of this study are the companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange or the Taipei Exchange, totalling 196 companies and including 49 companies with going concern doubt and 147 normal companies (with no going concern doubt). The data are taken from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) and the Market Observation Post System during the period from 2001 to 2016 (totalling 16 years). This study adopts a two-stage way to construct the going concern prediction models. In Stage I, the traditional statistical method of stepwise regression (SR) and the data mining technique artificial neural network (ANN) are applied to select the important variables. In Stage II, two decision tree algorithms (data mining techniques): classification and regression tree (CART) and C5.0 are used to establish the prediction models. The results show that the SR + CART model has the highest going concern prediction accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 87.42%.     

集群企业成功创新的网络模式及其动态匹配：浙江省的实证考察

本研究应用社会网络分析理论，以浙江省集群企业为考察对象，对成功创新型集群企业的创新网络模式进行了系统分析，发现创新网络对集群企业成功创新的支持作用是情境性的，其中，环境不确定性、企业战略导向、企业吸收能力、企业创新类型是四个重要的情境因素。本文实证归纳了与上述情境因素相匹配的四类创新网络模式，为我国不同集群企业构建高效的创新网络提供了策略选择依据。     

网络经济下企业组织环境的变化与经营模式的变革

网络经济是建立在信息的生产、分配和使用基础之上的经济形态。在网络经济环境下 ,企业经营的组织环境出现了新的变化 ,因而使企业的经营模式发生了从大规模生产到大规模定制 ,从产品经济到服务经济 ,从实体经营到虚拟经营 ,从互相竞争到双赢合作的根本性变革。把握这些新变化并改进我国企业经营的策略 ,有利于企业战略目标的实现。     

福建省粮食物流网络建设的构想

根据福建省各地区不同特点,充分利用资源优势,建设粮食物流网络。将现代科学技术和管理方法应用到粮食物流节点布局和线路优化中,使粮食物流沿着合理流向,用最少的费用实现从产区向销区的移动,避免对流、倒流、迂回等不合理运输,形成完整的覆盖不同地区、纵横相联、高效低耗的粮食物流网络体系,从而降低粮食物流成本。     

横向互补型企业网络形成动因的博弈分析

企业网络是一种新型组织结构形式和制度安排。本文首先分析了企业网络的形成动因,然后运用博弈论建立模型论证了横向互补型企业网络得以形成的动因在于网络成员自身的利益最大化。     

一种基于佳点集遗传算法的物流配送网络优化

首先根据实际问题分析了物流配送网络优化模型的各个关键组成部分,包括优化目标、决策变量和约束条件,并针对目前物流配送网络优化算法中存在的一些问题提出了一种新的算法,其核心是佳点集遗传算法。该算法编码采用prufer num ber结构,变异和交叉概率自适应选择。     

需求势能理论在多级物流网络预选点中的应用

针对分销物流网络的特点,提出了基于服务时限的多级物流网络选址问题和选点思路,应用需求势能理论建立了多网点选址数学模型,并提出了详尽的求解方法和步骤。最后通过医药分销物流网络系统的实例分析,说明了该方法在网络选点过程中的模型化方法和求解步骤。     

地区综合实力的ANN分析

人工神经网络通过神经元之间的相互作用来完成整个网络的信息处理，具有自学习和自适应等一系列优点，因而用它来评价地区综合实力是可行的。针对地区综合实力评价问题，建立了基于神经网络的评价系统，给出了应用实例。     

Two-settlement Systems for Electricity Markets under Network Uncertainty and Market Power

We analyze welfare and distributional properties of a two-settlement system consisting of a spot market over a two-node network and a single energy forward contract. We formulate and analyze several models which simulate joint dispatch of energy and transmission resources coordinated by a system operator. The spot market is subject to network uncertainty, which we model as a random capacity derating of an important transmission line. Using a duopoly model, we show that even for small probabilities of congestion (derating), forward trading may be substantially reduced, and the market power mitigating effect of forward markets (as shown in Allaz and Vila 1993) may be nullified to a great extent. There is a spot transmission charge reflecting transportation costs from location of generation to a designated hub whose price is the underlying for the forward contract. This alleviates some of the incentive problems associated with the forward market in which spot-market trading is residual. We find that the reduction in forward trading is due to the segregation of the markets in the constrained state, and the absence of natural incentives for generators to commit to more aggressive behavior in the spot market (the strategic substitutes effect). In our analysis, we find that the standard assumption of no-arbitrage across forward and spot markets leads to very little contract coverage, even for the case with no congestion. We present an alternative view of the market where limited intertemporal arbitrage enables temporal price discrimination by competing duopolists. In this framework, we assume that all of the demand shows up in the forward market (or that the market is cleared against an accurate forecast of the demand), and the forward price is determined using a market clearing condition.     

技术创新扩散环境的BP神经网络评价模型研究

构建了技术创新扩散的环境评价指标体系,设计了BP神经网络评价模型,并将二者结合,运用实例验证了该模型的有效性,从而为技术创新扩散环境的评价提供借鉴。