入世对中国期货市场发展的优势分析

经济全球化的要求使各国经济必须融入世界经济运行的大循环。作为融入世界经济的重要渠道，入世将会极大地影响中国的金融市场。期货市场作为金融市场的一个有机组成部分。也将深受影响。它将通过入世的宏观与微观效应，获得进一步的发展。     

The Random Walk Hypothesis in the Emerging Indian Stock Market

This paper examines the random walk hypothesis in the emerging Indian stock market using daily data on individual stocks. The statistical evidence in this paper rejects the random walk hypothesis. The results suggest that daily returns earned by individual stocks and by an equally weighted portfolio show significant non–linear dependence and persistent volatility effects. The non–linear dependence takes the form of ARCH–type conditional heteroskedasticity and does not appear to be caused by nonstationarity of underlying economic variables. Though conditional volatility is time varying, it does not explain expected returns.     

发展先进文化在发展中国社会主义市场经济中的作用

发展先进文化在发展社会主义市场经济中具有重要作用 ,它对于市场机制的建立具有促进作用 ,对市场经济具有文化制约作用 ,此外 ,文化是社会生产力 ,发展先进文化对市场经济的发展具有要素性作用。     

我国房地产中介服务业的发展机遇和对策

本文阐述了住房新体制给房地产中介服务业带来的发展机遇,并分析了在该机遇下应采取的对策。目的在于建议政府部门对房地产中介服务业加以培育、规范和引导,以给该行业的发展营造较好的成长环境。同时,房地产中介服务业应把握机遇,努力提高自身素质,以促进城镇住房制度改革的进一步深化。     

Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the Emerging Capital Market in Sri Lanka: Evidence from the Colombo Stock Exchange – A Note

The behaviour of stock prices on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) is examined with a view to determine its consistency with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). Runs, Autocorrelation and Cointegration tests are applied to daily, weekly and monthly CSE index data for the period of January 1991–November 1996. Results of Runs, Correlation and Cointegration tests overwhelmingly reject the serial independence hypothesis, leading to the conclusion that the behaviour of stock prices in the Colombo Stock Exchange is not consistent with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Tests of the-day-of-the-week-effect, however, show that there is no evidence of such a phenomenon on the Colombo Stock Exchange stock prices. Results of the tests of the-month-of-the-year-effect lead to the conclusion that CSE prices do not display any month-specific behaviour.     

我国职业经理人存在的问题及改进措施

职业经理人是企业所有者的代表 ,行使着企业经营管理的职能 ,对企业所有者负责。我国职业经理人作为一个阶层还有待形成。建立科学、合理的经营者激励薪酬制度 ,培育职业经理人市场 ,是造就我国职业经理人队伍的关键。     

Are Housing Price Cycles Driven by Irrational Expectations?

This paper investigates the extent to which condominium apartment prices are set in an efficient asset market. Unlike previous work that focuses on the time-series properties of measures of excess returns, the analysis is framed in terms of the changes in observable house prices over time. More precisely, the paper develops and applies a test of the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations, perfect markets, and no risk premium in the Vancouver condominium apartment market. The empirical results provide significant evidence against the joint null hypothesis. On average, ex post house price changes move in a direction opposite to their rational expectation. This approach offers a methodological advantage over the standard efficiency literature and is shown to provide a more powerful test of market efficiency than conventional return regressions. Another contribution of the paper is to characterize the time-series properties of deviations of condominium prices from those predicted by the risk-neutral rational expectations model, using cointegration and random coefficients techniques. Deviations in house price changes from their (risk-neutral) rational expectations are time varying, stationary, and related to the stage of the real estate price cycle.     

From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited

This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion.     

Quality Competition and Social Welfare in Markets with Partial Coverage: New Results*

We use a vertical product differentiation model under partial market coverage to study the social welfare optimum and duopoly equilibrium when convex costs of quality provision are either fixed or variable in terms of production. We show the following new results. First, under fixed costs, the social planner charges a uniform price for the single variant that just covers costs of quality provision. Like the duopoly equilibrium, this socially optimal pricing entails a partially uncovered market, but a smaller share of the market is served compared with the duopoly equilibrium. Second, for the variable cost case, it is socially optimal to provide both high‐ and low‐quality variants, but market shares need not be equal. This differs from the result in fully covered markets. Third, in the duopoly equilibrium, the quality spread is too wide under variable costs relative to the social optimum. Under fixed costs, the duopoly produces two variants, but quality is too low relative to the social optimum, which has only one variant.     

Futures and forward price differential and the effect of marking‐to‐market: Australian evidence

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of marking‐to‐market of futures contracts on the price differential between futures and forward contracts based on the predictions of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1981) (CIR) model. Cox et al ., (1981) derive a series of propositions with respect to the relationship between futures and forward prices and a set of testable implications. These are tested empirically in this paper using Australian data from November 1991 to June 1997. The results provide evidence of the presence of significant futures and forward price differences, where the futures price is consistently below the forward price. Only partial support is found for the Cox et al ., (1981) propositions, implying that the effect of marking‐to‐market is not able to fully account for the price differential. Therefore, it is not possible to rule out the influence of other institutional factors on the futures‐forward price difference.