Causes and Remedies of the Japan's Long‐lasting Recession: Lessons for China

Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the early 1990s. In this paper, we analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy (the lost decade). Economics Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has argued that Japan's lost decade is an example of a liquidity trap. However, our empirical analysis shows that stagnation of the Japanese economy comes from its vertical IS curve rather than a horizontal LM curve, so the Japanese economy has been facing structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. The vertical IS curve is caused by an insensitivity of investment to a lower interest rate partly because of the decline of sales due to the aging population and firms not wanting to invest. The structural problems come from the aging demographic, which is often neglected by scholars and policy‐makers, and also from the allocation of transfers from the central government to local governments, and the unwillingness of Japanese banks to lend money to startup businesses and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), mainly because of Basel capital requirements. Many countries, like China, are expected to face similar issues, particularly given the aging population. The present paper will address why the Japanese economy has been trapped in a prolonged slowdown and provide some remedies for revitalizing the economy.     

人口老龄化背景下养老保险制度面临的挑战及对策

21世纪在人口年龄结构上的显著特征就是人口老龄化,在此背景下,老年抚养比上升,退休寿命增加导致的基金支付期限延长,离退休费用刚性攀升和我国板块化的制度结构都构成了养老保险制度面临的挑战。因此为了应对挑战,研究相应的对策显得必要和迫切。     

高强高模聚乙烯纤维在建筑墙体上的应用分析

高强高模聚乙烯纤维是一种高性能纤维,质量轻、强度大、模量高。通过纤维的老化试验和性能特点分析得出,纤维的环境适应性较好,纤维可以作为建筑增强材料用于增强墙体的强力。     

几种纤维的老化特性分析

研究不同纤维的老化现象,得出纤维的降解老化性能差别很大,随着环保意识的提高,不易在自然环境中降解和生物分解的材料应控制生产和使用。环境友好的天然纤维和再生纤维通常对环境影响小,可循环利用,提倡首先使用;而化学合成纤维和化学无机纤维将对环境造成危害,甚至在酸碱热等环境中都不会降解,且原料资源有限,应选择性使用。     

我国农村商业养老保险的有效需求分析

伴随着我国人口老龄化、城市化进程的加快,家庭养老、土地养老等传统养老制度的功能日益弱化以及社会化养老资源的城乡分布相对不均衡,农村老年人面临更为严峻的养老问题。商业养老保险对于构建多层次的农村老年人养老保障体系将发挥非常重要的作用,文章从有效需求的角度分析商业养老保险在中国农村市场的可行性,必要性,并结合已有的分析对商业养老保险在构建中国农村老年人多层次养老保障体系提出相关的建议。     

中国人口老龄化对劳动参与率的影响

近年来,中国的劳动参与率呈现出不断下降趋势。这种下降趋势与中国人口老龄化程度的不断加深是否相关?人口年龄结构老化特别是劳动年龄结构老化对劳动参与率的影响到底有多大?采用定量分析方法的结果表明:人口年龄结构的老化特别是劳动年龄人口的老化对劳动参与率具有负向影响。政策启示:政府应积极开发老年人力资源以提高老年人口的劳动参与率;提高劳动生产率,优化产业结构,从而带动就业结构的优化,减少低端劳动密集型产业的发展,减轻未来对劳动力供给的压力,从而应对人口老龄化对劳动供给的冲击。     

日本城市老年人的亲属人际关系网——以日本名古屋市为例

根据日本名古屋老龄化程度最高的中村区日吉学区调查的数据,分析了日本老年人亲属人际关系网的特征和影响老人亲属人际关系网的主要因素。结果表明,影响老年人亲属人际关系网的主要因素是居住距离和老年人的学历、家庭收入、居住面积等社会经济资源。即,生态学上的距离虽然是影响“社会人际关系维系型”和“社会人际关系松散型”的重要因素,但不会使亲属人际关系数量衰减。学历、家庭收入、居住面积等社会经济资源是影响亲属人际关系网规模增减的重要因素。     

Financial risk attitudes and aging in Australia

A number of empirical studies document that people tend to become more risk averse as they get older. But other studies find only little evidence that age matters for financial risk attitudes. This prompts a call for revisiting the relationship between age and risk attitude to better support policy recommendations. The current paper contributes to this effort by utilising large-scale population data to conduct a dynamic panel analysis. Care is taken to avoid the problem of endogeneity of lagged risk attitude in modelling its effects. Analysis reveals that individuals' past risk attitude has a positive effect on their current risk attitude. However, there is only little evidence that risk attitude and age are systematically related. Our results shed some light on the previous contradictory empirical findings in the literature and suggest that past risk attitude is potentially of greater relevance than chronological age in determining current risk attitude.     

集装袋老化力学性能试验研究及其灰色预测

考虑粮食集装袋不同的使用环境，通过老化试验对集装袋的老化行为进行研究，探讨了自然暴露和不同温度条件对集装袋性能的影响。结果表明，随着老化时间的增加，集装袋基布的抗拉强度、断裂伸长率下降。自然暴露对基材性能的影响最为显著，高温环境下次之，低温环境下最不显著。基布的抗老化性能与气候条件的变化密切相关，随着温度的升高、光照强度增强，基布老化加剧。同时，基于灰色预测理论，对集装袋横向基布自然老化力学性能进行预测，预测结果精度较高。     

Till Death Do Us Part or I Get My Pension? Wives' Pension Holding and Marital Dissolution in the United States

Wives' financial independence gained from their pension may increase the risk of marital dissolution, especially when wives are approaching retirement age (the older wives' independence hypothesis). Applying single and simultaneous equations probit models to data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we investigate the effect of wives' pension holding in 1984 on the risk of subsequent marital dissolution. Results from the single equation model appear to support the older wives' independence hypothesis. However, results from the simultaneous equations model suggest that interpreting the single equation results as a sign of older wives' economic independence may be misleading.
JEL classification : C 33; D 31; J 12; J 32