降低ASC的售后配件库存方法

为切实降低特约售后服务中心的配件库存,提出了基于多层次多维度的ABC分类法,并对不同类型配件采取不同库存策略,同时提出针对快速流动配件的预测优化方法和针对呆滞件的信息共享平台的建设。     

Crises, portfolio flows, and foreign direct investment: An application to Turkey

We analyze how financial and economic crises affect the relation between the components of capital flows and their determinants in an emerging economy. Our results suggest that the composition of capital flows matters, crises can explain the volatility of portfolio flows and foreign direct investment, and modeling them as endogenous breakpoints improves the results considerably. By using data from the Turkish economy, we estimate these breakpoints together with the parameters of the model and find that they correspond to international and domestic crises that hit the country. Although both components are affected by similar crises, direct investment reacts strongly to the domestic crisis, while portfolios flows are more sensitive to global financial conditions. Breaks also have an effect on the significance and sign of determinants of each type of international investment. Evidence indicates changes in all coefficients in both investment types and suggests that analyses assuming parameter constancy lead to misleading results if they ignore the influence of endogenous breaks.     

我国各地区知识经济发展的初步研究

本文在对现有关于测度知识经济各种指标进行讨论的基础上，提出了描述我国各地区知识经济发展状况的科技、教育、文化、工业和综合等5个方面共31个指标的指标体系，然后用数学统计模型对全国31个省、市、自治区知识经济的成熟化程度和成熟化类型等进行系统分析。结果表明，影响我国知识经济发展的主要因素是教育、科技和工业化程度；从总体上说，我国的知识经济还处在初期发展阶段，虽然成熟化程度的地域差异很大，但类型分异不甚明显。三个老直辖市、东南部地区的知识经济发展明显领先于其它地区；31个省份大体可分成5个类别。     

Biogeographical conditions, the transition to agriculture and long-run growth

We use new data on the timing of the transition to agriculture, developed by Putterman and Trainor (2006), to test the theory of Diamond (1997) and Olsson and Hibbs (2005) that an earlier transition is reflected in higher incomes today. Our results confirm the theory, even after controlling for institutional quality and other geographical factors. The date of transition is correlated with prehistoric biogeography (the availability of wild grasses and large domesticable animal species). The factors conducive to high per capita incomes today are good institutions, an early transition to agriculture, access to the sea and a low incidence of fatal malaria. Geographical influences have been at work in all of these proximate determinants of per capita income.     

Comment on “Correlated information, mechanism design and informational rents” [J. Econ. Theory 123 (2) (2005) 210–217]

We amend an error in [S. Parreiras, Correlated information, mechanism design and informational rents, J. Econ. Theory 123 (2005) 210–217]. Consequently, it is in general not possible to reinterpret a mechanism design model that violates the spanning condition of Crémer and McLean [J. Crémer, R. McLean, Full extraction of the surplus in bayesian, dominant strategy auctions, Econometrica 56 (1988) 1247–1258] as one in which agents hold private information about the informativeness of their signals about other agents? types. Instead, such an interpretation is warranted only when the weights used to span an agent?s set of beliefs stand in a singular relation with the prior type distribution that is known as an alternative characterization of Blackwell dominance.     

The dynamic instability of dispersed price equilibria

We adopt an evolutionary framework to explain price dispersion as a time varying phenomenon. By developing a finite strategy analogue of the Burdett and Judd (1983) price dispersion model, we show that all dispersed price equilibria are unstable under the class of perturbed best response dynamics. Instead, numerical simulations using the logit dynamic show that price dispersion manifests itself as a limit cycle. We verify that limit cycles persist even when the finite strategy model approaches the original continuous strategy model. For a particularly simple case of the model, we prove the existence of a limit cycle.     

Probabilistic sophistication and variational preferences

This paper shows that in the class of variational preferences the notion of probabilistic sophistication is equivalent to expected utility as long as there exists at least one event such that the independence axiom holds for bets on that event. This extends the result of Marinacci (2002) [13] and provides a novel interpretation of his result.     

Modeling non-monotone risk aversion using SAHARA utility functions

We develop a new class of utility functions, SAHARA utility, with the distinguishing feature that it allows absolute risk aversion to be non-monotone and implements the assumption that agents may become less risk averse for very low values of wealth. The class contains the well-known exponential and power utility functions as limiting cases. We investigate the optimal investment problem under SAHARA utility and derive the optimal strategies in an explicit form using dual optimization methods. We also show how SAHARA utility functions extend the class of contingent claims that can be valued using indifference pricing in incomplete markets.     

Channels of interprovincial risk sharing in China

This paper decomposes consumption risk sharing among provinces in China over the 1980–2007 period. We find that 9.4% of the shocks to gross provincial product are smoothed by the interprovincial fiscal transfer system. This system also cushions a relatively large fraction of the province-specific shocks in the coastal provinces of China. Using a variety of indicators, we explore non-fiscal channels of consumption risk sharing. We find that the migration of rural labor to urban areas and the remittance of migrant wages play important roles in promoting interprovincial consumption risk sharing in the inland provinces of China. In contrast, the extent of risk sharing through financial intermediaries and the capital markets is very limited. These factors have resulted in a low degree of risk sharing among Chinese provinces, especially over the last decade.     

Diversification and tunneling: Evidence from Indian business groups

We provide evidence suggesting an important yet largely unexplored motive for the diversified structure of emerging economy business groups is to facilitate expropriation of minority shareholders by controlling insiders through tunneling. Using firm level panel data from India, and defining the core firm of a group as the one with the largest asset base, we find that the relatedness of the activity of a group affiliate to the activity of the core firm is correlated with the wedge between control and cash flow rights of insiders as well as with the opacity in insider ownership. Firms with ownership-control wedge lower and ownership opacity higher relative to a group’s core firm are more likely to be in activities unrelated to that of the core firm. Our findings are strengthened by evidence of tunneling in the same direction, from affiliates with wedge equal to or higher than that of the core firm to affiliates with wedge lower than that of the core firm. Taken together this suggests an expropriation motive for diversification: affiliate firms are located away from a business group’s core firm to serve as destination points for funds tunneled from the group’s core.