中国经济转型与发展的政治经济学分析——基于中俄经济转型比较

虽然中国的经济转型已经取得了重大的成果,然而目前改革的任务依然艰巨,旨在从政治经济学的角度来理解我国正在经历的转型之路.通过对中俄经济转型的理论基础华盛顿共识和制度演进主义的比较分析,思考中国经济转型与未来发展之路.     

Technology and Group Decision Process in Going-Concern Judgements

Accounting and auditing practices are continually being affected by advances in technology. This study empirically examined the effect of group decision processes and technological advances on group going-concern decision making. Groups with access to group decision support systems (GDSS) were compared to groups without access to GDSS for their going-concern judgments. The results show group discussion induced auditors to be more conservative and to consider factors which may have overlooked at the individual level, though neither structure significantly reduced the considerable variance in the individual going-concern judgments. Further, as compared to their counterparts in the face-to-face discussion groups, GDSS groups indicated much higher confidence in their group's final assessment of the client's going-concern status and a higher level of satisfaction and agreement with the group decision processes. The findings suggest that while group discussions did not significantly reduce auditors' considerable variance in going-concern judgments, future research should investigate which explicit models would improve the consensus on going-concern evaluations.     

土地增值收益分配公平群体共识及其增进路径

研究目的:构建一种调查分析失地农民、政府官员、在耕农民、城市居民、高校学者等相关群体关于土地增值收益分配公平共识状况的方法,为征地问题研究和制度改革提供参考。研究方法:问卷调查、指数分析、比较分析。研究结果:(1)关于土地增值收益分配公平的群体共识与分歧并存,被调查对象总体上处于弱共识水平;(2)关于土地增值收益权利公平、机会公平的群体间共识度高于规则公平、结果公平;(3)失地农民、在耕农民、城市居民、专家学者、行政官员的群体内共识度依次递减,分别为0.66、0.63、0.59、0.57、0.50;(4)对于是否按照农民意愿进行补偿、是否允许在耕农民分享收益、开发区用地是否属于公共利益等,存在严重的社会分歧。研究结论:应通过社会价值观念引领,制度环境改革完善和建立利益协调沟通机制等增进土地增值收益分配公平群体共识,为改革提供有利的社会基础。     

The quest for monetary and financial stability: a review of professor Dilip M. Nachane,critique of the new consensus macroeconomics and implications for India

We review Professor Nachane’s book on New Consensus Macroeconomics. The Review argues that such a consensus is possible not at theoretical level, but at policy level, clarifies the link of Keynes’s General Theory to his Treatise, introduced in the book, brings out contributions of Wicksell, Clower, and Schumpeter, missed out in the book, and evaluates the discussion of issues in central banking/financial sector reforms. The book emphasizes monetary/financial stability. We recommend applying a proposal for regulatory veto to securitized bundles of loans issued by different lenders. These represent business or gambling bets rather than theoretically possible aggregation of risks.     

基于构建与维系组织间信任与共识关系的信息技术应用——一个体现共赢优势和共享利益的个案研究

追踪企业信息化失败的实例可以发现,作为委托方的企业与作为实施方的IT企业之间无法取得谅解,从而导致实施方的信息技术不具“适配性”和“有效性”,是目前企业信息化建设中的主要问题。企业信息化过程体现为一种组织间的互动关系,信息技术的应用取决于组织间的信任与共识。信息技术作为信息化过程中重要的静态资源,需要双方在互动中构建与维系彼此间信任和共识的关系,并由此发展为可持续的动态竞争能力,才能在企业中得到最佳应用。     

Strategic consensus and performance: the role of strategy type and market‐related dynamism

This paper examines the link between consensus among senior managers and performance at the SBU level and considers factors which may moderate the strength of this relationship. Using data from a cross‐national study in three industry sectors, the authors find that consensus increases the performance of the SBU in the case of a differentiation strategy but not in the case of a low‐cost strategy. Additionally, the relationship between consensus on a differentiation strategy and performance is negatively influenced by dynamism of the market. This research thus clarifies and extends prior consensus research by indicating the conditions under which consensus positively affects performance. For managers, our results indicate that investing managerial time in obtaining consensus is more important for a differentiation than for a low‐cost strategy and is particularly important when using a differentiation strategy in a stable environment. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Top management team diversity,group process,and strategic consensus

This study integrated concepts from upper echelons, group process and social cognition theories to investigate how demographic diversity and group processes influence strategic consensus within the top management team (TMT), where strategic consensus is defined as the degree to which individual mental models of strategy overlap. Data from 76 high‐technology firms in the United States and Ireland were used to examine three alternative models. The results showed that while demographic diversity alone did have effects on strategic consensus the overall fit of the model was not strong. Adding two intervening group process variables, interpersonal conflict and agreement‐seeking, to the model greatly improved the overall relationship with strategic consensus. For the most part, TMT diversity had negative effects on strategic consensus. The model with superior fit showed both direct and indirect effects of diversity on strategic consensus. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysts’ recommendations: from which signal does the market take its lead?

The stock market may respond to the difference between an analyst’s recommendation and that analyst’s previous recommendation and/or to the difference between the analyst’s recommendation and the consensus recommendation. We show that for the short-term market response the former is the clearer signal when both are examined simultaneously. We also show that the market’s reaction is strongly influenced by the analyst’s reputation, the divergence of opinion among analysts and the number of analysts following the stock. Previous studies have been hampered by having a low proportion of negative recommendations. We overcome this deficiency by studying the Australian market, in which institutional differences lead to analysts releasing many more negative recommendations.

产业集群辨识方法综述

以产业集群内涵的厘清为基础,系统论述并评价了产业集群辨识中所运用到的各种方法,认为:专家意见法、产业感知法和企业访谈法都具有针对性强、能够收集难以统计的时新信息等特点,但依赖于专家等个体感性认知,系统数据收集困难,结论普适化受限;多元统计聚类法透视出产业间重要的依存关系,但部门全覆盖及产业在集群间截然分组不符实际;主成分分析法辨识结果相对理想,但数理解释牵强;Czamanski法逻辑严密,突出集群内部产业间的相互关联,但对支撑性部门雷同的集群处理待改善;共识集群法所体现出来的综合集成理念值得借鉴。最后总结,集群辨识宜继续开发共识集群法所提供的多种分析整合的做法,量化研究为主,定性修正为辅,同时应增加对空间维度的考虑。     

Are Professional Macroeconomic Forecasters Able To Do Better Than Forecasting Trends?

This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long‐run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.