Extreme Value Theory and Statistics of Univariate Extremes: A Review

Statistical issues arising in modelling univariate extremes of a random sample have been successfully used in the most diverse fields, such as biometrics, finance, insurance and risk theory. Statistics of univariate extremes (SUE), the subject to be dealt with in this review paper, has recently faced a huge development, partially because rare events can have catastrophic consequences for human activities, through their impact on the natural and constructed environments. In the last decades, there has been a shift from the area of parametric SUE, based on probabilistic asymptotic results in extreme value theory, towards semi‐parametric approaches. After a brief reference to Gumbel's block methodology and more recent improvements in the parametric framework, we present an overview of the developments on the estimation of parameters of extreme events and on the testing of extreme value conditions under a semi‐parametric framework. We further discuss a few challenging topics in the area of SUE. © 2014 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2014 International Statistical Institute     

Information Contents in Japanese OTC Drug Advertising from Elaboration Likelihood Model Perspective: Content Analysis of TV Commercials and OTC Drug Websites

Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model, the current study investigates information types that are cross-promoted in Japanese pharmaceutical advertising. The results from a quantitative content analysis of OTC drug brands' TV commercials broadcasted in Japan between 2014 and 2015 and their corresponding product websites (n = 150) show that Japanese OTC drug promotions feature more informational cues in the latter; cues such as price, safety, quality, components, and guarantees/warranties are particularly prominent. Furthermore, product websites tend to focus more on rational appeals, whereas TV commercials emphasize emotional appeals. No difference is found between these media types regarding celebrity and noncelebrity endorser usage.     

PERSONALITY TRAITS AND THE PERCEPTION OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: SURVEY EVIDENCE

I examine the determinants of both perceived inflation and unemployment in one single survey and include Big Five traits in the analysis. This is the first survey on this topic in Germany. My sample consists of 1771 students from different fields and levels. Using PhD students’ estimates as a reference, I create categories for underestimation and overestimation of both variables. Multinomial logit regressions show that females overestimate both variables. Education and news consumption reduce misestimation. A higher level of Neuroticism is related with a higher probability to overestimate unemployment. Overstating (understating) one indicator is associated with overstating (understating) the other.     

A multi-objective sustainable load planning model for intermodal transportation networks with a real-life application

Growing importance of intermodal transportation necessitates modeling and solving load planning problems by taking into account various complex decisions simultaneously like transportation mode/service type selection, load allocation, and outsourcing. This paper presents a mixed-integer mathematical programming model for a multi-objective, multi-mode and multi-period sustainable load planning problem by considering import/export load flows to satisfy transport demands of customers and many other related issues. Several multiple objective optimization procedures are utilized in order to handle conflicting objectives simultaneously under crisp and fuzzy decision making environments. A real-life case study is also performed to present application and usefulness of the proposed model.     

Revisiting Border Effect: Evidence from Taobao.com in China

Inherent home bias and trade barriers (particularly local protectionism in China), which are difficult to separate, are two main explanations of border effect. We attempt to solve this problem by analyzing online trade. Different from offline trade, inherent home bias is the only cause of online border effect because local governments are usually unable to restrict online trade. Thus, the difference between the border effect in online and offline trade can be reasonably interpreted as the existence of government protectionism in the offline market. We find a statistically significant difference between online and offline border effects in China, which can be interpreted as strong evidence that policy barriers remain significant and hinder interregional trade.     

大型交叉安全风险识别与评估

大型交叉施工具有建筑结构复杂、设备集中、人员密度大、环境密闭等特点,一旦结构发生安全事故,后果严重,而风险识别和评估可以结合施工的实际情况,对其中的各种危险源进行分类,并进行定量与定性评价。文章从风险特点及类型、风险分析依据及步骤、风险评估流程,最后得出风险识别与评估结论:工程项目风险识别与评估应是一个经常性反复循环的活动,是一个动态的过程。     

IPD模式下研发体系中的跨部门冲突研究

跨部门冲突是指正式组织中某部门阻碍到其他部门需求之满足及目标达成，而引起的认知上、情感上及行为上的反应。文章根据跨部门冲突理论，对IPD模式下研发体系中跨部门的冲突进行分析，以求建立研发体系跨部门冲突的解决机制。     

高职高专旅游英语教学中跨文化交际能力的培养

语言是文化的裁体,文化支配着语言。不同文化背景的人们在交际的过程中,由于文化差异,交流双方很容易产生文化障碍。要获得跨文化交际的最佳效果,我们不仅要掌握语言本身的规律,更要了解语言所承载的深刻文化内涵,通过一些手段来培养学生的跨文化交际能力。     

The Visual Representation of Border Tourism: Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and Dokdo in South Korea

The demilitarized zone (DMZ) and Dokdo mark South Korea borders with North Korea and Japan respectively. Each borderland is a socially constructed symbolic cultural landscape shaped in part by tourism. In this study, a sample of 2202 online images was inspected using content‐semiotic analysis to understand how visual representation of border tourism works. It was found that visitors via social media and government censorship play major roles in constructing representations of (i) alienated borders with iconic war heritage attractions at the DMZ and (ii) an alienated and isolated Dokdo. Both borders highlight patriotic/nationalistic ‘flagging’ and the gaze across. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

商业周期与区际经济一体化——自然壁垒、经济结构与政策

文章着重从商业周期角度来对我国区际一体化状况进行实证研究,即主要从"市场自然分割"与"政策与经济结构"两方面因素来探索商业周期的区域差异.总体来看,我国所有地区在两个时间样本期间(1992～1997年与1998～2004年)的就业和产出周期同步性均有所增加,说明商业周期的演进与我国经济体制改革基本同步;文章还分析了影响商业周期的不同解释变量,结果显示:控制变量的距离、规模与周期存在显著的相关性,而体现"东西边界"的外生变量则在绝大部分回归中则显著为负,说明在我国东西部之间可能存在一道明显的"区域分界线",阻碍了大区域间的经济联系;此外,樊刚指数对区域周期的解释具有两面性,经济结构差异越合理,商业周期越走向同步性,而财政政策差异和贸易密度差异是我国商业周期的波动因素.